Several weeks ago I began my weekly inspection of the Patriots pass defense with a comparison to the 2006 Colts as a blueprint. That team ended the season with #19th ranked pass defense, and I posited for this Patriots team to have a chance to win the Super Bowl they would have to improve weekly as they were in the bottom third of the league in Cold Hard Football Facts' proprietary Defensive Real Quarterback Rating (DRQBR). The Patriots offense is still humming along at #2 in the CHFF's own Real Quarterback Rating (RQBR). How's the defense doing?
Moving up in the rankings has been slow going since the Patriots were facing such patsies from week 11 through now(rankings at the time the Patriots played them): Indianapolis - #22nd ranked RQBR, Jets - #29th ranked RQBR, Dolphins - #26th ranked RQBR. But Belichicks Bullies have had a slow and steady rise in the DRQBR since week 11, from 22nd 85.54 to a current standing of 16th 80.11. In short, the Pats took care of business, which is more of an accomplishment than the current media would have you believe in this Any Given Sunday NFL.
This week begins the two biggest games of the season. Houston's #7th ranked 88.52 RQBR & San Francisco's #4 ranked 93.78. Despite the Alex Smith drama the facts remains that San Fran has maintained its ranking from #5 the week Kaepernick took over to #4 now. While Paul Perillo of patriots.com or Felger & Mazz continue to see this team as too flawed or lucky, the Patriots have looked promising over the past few weeks and continue to improve their pass defense. Houston and San Francisco present significant challenges to this pass d and if the Patriots hold them down it portends very well for the playoffs.
As for individuals I've been tracking Aquib Talib isn't standing out, nor is Dont'a Hightower, but even the smell test says this defense is getting better. As for Chandler Jones there was more hard hitting observation of him attending the team walkthrough yesterday. I'm not beating on the reporting per say, they only get what the Patriots give them, but again I plead for a little private investigator hiring. Help the economy and get better stories, who looses?!
Remember folks, this is an improving pass defense. Even if Houston wins on Monday the tell for the playoffs will be how the opposing QB looks. If Foster and Co run all day and Shaub doesn't do much that's a great sign win or loose.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Monday, December 3, 2012
Red Sox Winter Meetings White Whale Edition
It was Herman Melville who penned:
"There is one knows not what sweet mystery about this sea, whose gently awful stirrings seem to speak of some hidden soul beneath. "
Well Herman for me it is not the sea that is that sweet mystery, it is my own White Whale, an Ace starting pitcher for my beloved Red Sox. And what Ace has been bandied about by such baseball reporting luminaries as Buster Olney? David Taylor Price of those plucky Tampa Bay Rays. Yes, that David Price, who will soon be pitching in his age 27 season and the reigning AL Cy Young award winner. He is at the pinnacle of his trade value, but he is also the rarest of possibilities, an undeniable Ace available at the beginning of his peak. Price is not nearly the postseason hero Josh Beckett was when he was traded to the Red Sox, but how does he compare to the last big trade made by the Sox for a starter? Let's see what baseball reference and Baseball HQ have to say about the 4 years prior to a trade or potential trade:
David Price Josh Beckett
GB% Trend 41-44-44-53 37-47-45-43
K/9 Trend 7.2-8.1-8.7-8.7 9.4-9.6-8.7-8.4
WHIP Trend 1.35-1.19-1.14-1.10 1.27-1.32-1.22-1.18
K/BB Trend 1.89-2.38-3.46-3.47 2.57-2.71-2.81-2.86
Beckett stuck out more, but Price gets more groundballs, walks less, and strikes out almost as much. Price also has a clear upward trend, whereas Beckett was more of a rollercoaster. Price is the better pitcher.
Back in the day the Sox had to give up their #1 prospect, SS Hanley Ramirez, along with Anibal Sanchez, current best starter on the free agent market not named Zack Greinke, for Beckett. Once again the Red Sox top prospect is a Dominican shortstop, this time with a name out of a Tolkein novel, Xavier Bogaerts. And like some softly spoken spell whispered by Gandolph this prospect is accompanied by mysticism and wonder. Every Fenway fan knows the Sox have been a black hole at shortstop since the salad days of Nomar. We tend to get emotional about great looking young shortstops who can hit with power, but a cooler head such as Jim Callis from Baseball America told Alex Speier of WEEI that Bogaerts isn't quite Hanley Ramirez. Callis also detailed the Red Sox 10th best prospect, SS Deven Marrero, who is seen as a good defender with a solid bat and on base skills, so Bogaerts isn't the only hope beyond the no-hit Iglesias.
Back before PED testing and punishment was a total joke the Red Sox needed a one two punch of Manny and Papi along with a great rotation to compete Now more than ever it is starting pitching that matters, as witnessed by the 2012 San Francisco Giants, and a rotation anchored by Price, with Lester and Buccholz slotted down to the 2 and 3 spots, would be formidable. Combined with the lineup of Ellsbury and Pedroia and Papi it would be more than enough to compete for a World Series. I wouldn't trade starting pitching for a bat, and I wouldn't trade Bogaerts for anyone other than a true Ace, but Price is worth it. Bogaerts wouldn't be enough, more players would be involved, but as Olney wrote it would have to start there and I believe this should be Cherington's #1 priority this week at the MLB winter meetings.
Until next time,
The SAHD
"There is one knows not what sweet mystery about this sea, whose gently awful stirrings seem to speak of some hidden soul beneath. "
Well Herman for me it is not the sea that is that sweet mystery, it is my own White Whale, an Ace starting pitcher for my beloved Red Sox. And what Ace has been bandied about by such baseball reporting luminaries as Buster Olney? David Taylor Price of those plucky Tampa Bay Rays. Yes, that David Price, who will soon be pitching in his age 27 season and the reigning AL Cy Young award winner. He is at the pinnacle of his trade value, but he is also the rarest of possibilities, an undeniable Ace available at the beginning of his peak. Price is not nearly the postseason hero Josh Beckett was when he was traded to the Red Sox, but how does he compare to the last big trade made by the Sox for a starter? Let's see what baseball reference and Baseball HQ have to say about the 4 years prior to a trade or potential trade:
David Price Josh Beckett
GB% Trend 41-44-44-53 37-47-45-43
K/9 Trend 7.2-8.1-8.7-8.7 9.4-9.6-8.7-8.4
WHIP Trend 1.35-1.19-1.14-1.10 1.27-1.32-1.22-1.18
K/BB Trend 1.89-2.38-3.46-3.47 2.57-2.71-2.81-2.86
Beckett stuck out more, but Price gets more groundballs, walks less, and strikes out almost as much. Price also has a clear upward trend, whereas Beckett was more of a rollercoaster. Price is the better pitcher.
Back in the day the Sox had to give up their #1 prospect, SS Hanley Ramirez, along with Anibal Sanchez, current best starter on the free agent market not named Zack Greinke, for Beckett. Once again the Red Sox top prospect is a Dominican shortstop, this time with a name out of a Tolkein novel, Xavier Bogaerts. And like some softly spoken spell whispered by Gandolph this prospect is accompanied by mysticism and wonder. Every Fenway fan knows the Sox have been a black hole at shortstop since the salad days of Nomar. We tend to get emotional about great looking young shortstops who can hit with power, but a cooler head such as Jim Callis from Baseball America told Alex Speier of WEEI that Bogaerts isn't quite Hanley Ramirez. Callis also detailed the Red Sox 10th best prospect, SS Deven Marrero, who is seen as a good defender with a solid bat and on base skills, so Bogaerts isn't the only hope beyond the no-hit Iglesias.
Back before PED testing and punishment was a total joke the Red Sox needed a one two punch of Manny and Papi along with a great rotation to compete Now more than ever it is starting pitching that matters, as witnessed by the 2012 San Francisco Giants, and a rotation anchored by Price, with Lester and Buccholz slotted down to the 2 and 3 spots, would be formidable. Combined with the lineup of Ellsbury and Pedroia and Papi it would be more than enough to compete for a World Series. I wouldn't trade starting pitching for a bat, and I wouldn't trade Bogaerts for anyone other than a true Ace, but Price is worth it. Bogaerts wouldn't be enough, more players would be involved, but as Olney wrote it would have to start there and I believe this should be Cherington's #1 priority this week at the MLB winter meetings.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Friday, November 30, 2012
Hanson Not Traded To Red Sox Ridiculous! Edition
I thought the Hot Stove was cooking pretty good before, now something's got me steaming mad! Tommy Hanson, erstwhile Ace of the Atlanta Braves, was just traded to the LA Angels for RP Jordan Walden. The Braves are going to use Walden in the middle innings because they have the best closer in the game in young Craig Kimbrel. I argued against trading for a guy like Josh Johnson a few weeks ago because he was at the tail end of his prime years, and trading for a guy like Pedro because his best years were ahead of him. Let's stack up Hanson compared to those two in the first four years of their careers with baseball references WAR:
Name: Hanson Pedro Johnson
Age/WAR 22/3.7 22/2.2 22/3.0
23/2.6 23/4.5 23/-.6
24/1.2 24/3.8 24/1.9
25/-.9 25/8.7 25/6.4
Pedro is on another plain, but through 3 years Hanson had 7.5 WAR, Johnson had 4.3. The difference is Hanson tanked in year 4 while the other two took off. Hanson had a bad year last year, concussing himself by crashing his car in February then he had a back strain that put him on the DL in July. He also had a shoulder strain in 2011. His WAR is in a clear downward trend but this is not the type of guy you just let slip through your fingers. This guy has huge potential and The Angels gave up their out of no where closer to get him. The Sox couldn't top that jazz? How about a finer look at Hanson:
Age 22 23 24 25
Innings 127.2 202.2 130.0 174.2
WHIP 1.183 1.174 1.169 1.454
HR/9 .7 .6 1.2 1.4
K/9 8.2 7.7 9.8 8.3
K/BB 2.52 3.09 3.09 2.27
He lost some control lost year resulting in the lower K/BB and WHIP and higher HR/9 but his K/9 was great and I'm almost shocked the Braves didn't shop him for more or the Red Sox let this happen without a serious offer. All I can do is shake my head sometimes.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Hot Stove Bats To Covet For Sox Edition
As Rob Bradford writes Big Papi opined that the Sox 'need some thunder in that lineup' on WEEI's Hot Stove. As usual Papi put the focus on his self importance, but his point is somewhat valid. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say by thunder he means homers and on base ability. I am convinced we all got so spoiled by those 4 hour games of guys working the count over and over that watching Daisuke 'I have a million free private flights in my contract, I've got time' Matsuzaka pitch pushed us all over the edge and we took our eyes off the ball. We started listening to the media complain about late nights, to Francona and Gonzalez whine about the schedule, and to our own desire to get an extra hour back in our lives. Is it about winning, or is it about comfort? Tell us Charlie.
A couple of weeks ago I looked into the battle between Mike Napoli and Adam LaRoche. End result, LaRoche in a close but clear win. Now it appears the Nats have chosen Denard Span over LaRoche and Davey Johnson is trying an end around at his golf tournament to get LaRoche back. There's also chatter about the Nats going after Greinke, the best starting pitcher in the market. As a Sox fan I hope the Nats drive dump trucks full of money up to Greinke's house and leave LaRoche for the picking. This would be good for both the Sox and the Nats, whose fanbase just got Soxified in last year's playoffs and I feel a real connection to them. It is a universal fact, nothing brings people together like sports misery and heartbreak. Despite yesterdays rumor that the Sox were after Napoli, Cody Ross, and Nick Swisher it seems fairly clear now what the best path could be, assuming contracts don't get insane. The Sox already signed the right handed hitting, lefty pitching mashing, good clubhouse presence guy Johnny Gomes. I'm forced to pause and point out they gave this guy two years at $5 Million per. Time to talk to myself "It's ok SAHD, it's just a part time player getting big money for a short time, short term contracts, short term contracts, dooo dooo doo dooo doo dooo dooo." Cody Ross, you position has been filled. Now if they can grab LaRoche, Swisher appears to be next. What about the Swishmeister? The old Baseball HQ treatment:
Nick Swisher Age 31 GB% FB% HR/F% OBA HR OPS
2009 38 46 17 .371 29 .869
2010 36 45 15 .354 29 .865
2011 39 39 14 .374 23 .822
2012 39 39 15 .363 24 .836
There is more consistency in Swisher's game than either LaRoche or Napoli, but troubling signs as well. The fly ball decline with a ground ball increase is ominous. Thankfully his on base skills are intact and perhaps his fly ball swing will come back with the Green Monstah to shoot for. He's a switch hitter which would help to even out the lineup, and another clubhouse guy in the mold of Millar. Seems promising, but lets feed these guys into the baseball reference WAR machine from 2009-2012:
Name: Swisher LaRoche Napoli Ross
Age/WAR 28/1.7 29/2.2 27/2.7 28/2.2
29/3.4 30/0.9 28/1.7 29/1.6
30/1.5 31/-.3 29/5.3 30/-.1
31/3.5 32/4.0 30/1.4 31/1.6
This adds a little context to the stats, as witnessed in my argument to sign B.J. Upton instead of Josh Hamilton if a big money deal had to be made. A 3.0 or better is a solid everyday player, and as you can see there isn't a totally solid one among them. Swisher comes the closest which is why he'll get the most money and why, despite my reservations about his power going forward, I would support the Sox inking him. As for Napoli and LaRoche, I believe LaRoche's 2010-2011 seasons were marred by injury and being traded around like a Greg Jeffries' Score rookie card in Mr. Smith's homeroom in 1989. His 4.0 WAR last year is supported by solid underlying skills of power, on base, and defense at first although that is only a small part. Napoli's 5.3 in 2011 was driven by an unsustainable .412 on base thanks to raising ground balls and falling fly balls. As for Ross, well even among this motley crew he doesn't quite make it. Total 4 year WAR: Swisher 10.1, LaRoche 6.8, Napoli 11.1, Ross 5.3.
All that being said I would still sign up for Hamilton for three years. Too bad that's more of a LSD trip than Woodstock. They head to the General Manger's meetings in Nashville next week and if a GM can feel comfortable with 3 years you better believe there's another who will put up 5. If the haul is Swisher, LaRoche, and a Carlos Villanueva or Francisco Liriano for the rotation I'll be happy. And maybe, just maybe, they can do a deal for a good to great starter centered around Allen Webster.
Until next time,
The SAHD
A couple of weeks ago I looked into the battle between Mike Napoli and Adam LaRoche. End result, LaRoche in a close but clear win. Now it appears the Nats have chosen Denard Span over LaRoche and Davey Johnson is trying an end around at his golf tournament to get LaRoche back. There's also chatter about the Nats going after Greinke, the best starting pitcher in the market. As a Sox fan I hope the Nats drive dump trucks full of money up to Greinke's house and leave LaRoche for the picking. This would be good for both the Sox and the Nats, whose fanbase just got Soxified in last year's playoffs and I feel a real connection to them. It is a universal fact, nothing brings people together like sports misery and heartbreak. Despite yesterdays rumor that the Sox were after Napoli, Cody Ross, and Nick Swisher it seems fairly clear now what the best path could be, assuming contracts don't get insane. The Sox already signed the right handed hitting, lefty pitching mashing, good clubhouse presence guy Johnny Gomes. I'm forced to pause and point out they gave this guy two years at $5 Million per. Time to talk to myself "It's ok SAHD, it's just a part time player getting big money for a short time, short term contracts, short term contracts, dooo dooo doo dooo doo dooo dooo." Cody Ross, you position has been filled. Now if they can grab LaRoche, Swisher appears to be next. What about the Swishmeister? The old Baseball HQ treatment:
Nick Swisher Age 31 GB% FB% HR/F% OBA HR OPS
2009 38 46 17 .371 29 .869
2010 36 45 15 .354 29 .865
2011 39 39 14 .374 23 .822
2012 39 39 15 .363 24 .836
There is more consistency in Swisher's game than either LaRoche or Napoli, but troubling signs as well. The fly ball decline with a ground ball increase is ominous. Thankfully his on base skills are intact and perhaps his fly ball swing will come back with the Green Monstah to shoot for. He's a switch hitter which would help to even out the lineup, and another clubhouse guy in the mold of Millar. Seems promising, but lets feed these guys into the baseball reference WAR machine from 2009-2012:
Name: Swisher LaRoche Napoli Ross
Age/WAR 28/1.7 29/2.2 27/2.7 28/2.2
29/3.4 30/0.9 28/1.7 29/1.6
30/1.5 31/-.3 29/5.3 30/-.1
31/3.5 32/4.0 30/1.4 31/1.6
This adds a little context to the stats, as witnessed in my argument to sign B.J. Upton instead of Josh Hamilton if a big money deal had to be made. A 3.0 or better is a solid everyday player, and as you can see there isn't a totally solid one among them. Swisher comes the closest which is why he'll get the most money and why, despite my reservations about his power going forward, I would support the Sox inking him. As for Napoli and LaRoche, I believe LaRoche's 2010-2011 seasons were marred by injury and being traded around like a Greg Jeffries' Score rookie card in Mr. Smith's homeroom in 1989. His 4.0 WAR last year is supported by solid underlying skills of power, on base, and defense at first although that is only a small part. Napoli's 5.3 in 2011 was driven by an unsustainable .412 on base thanks to raising ground balls and falling fly balls. As for Ross, well even among this motley crew he doesn't quite make it. Total 4 year WAR: Swisher 10.1, LaRoche 6.8, Napoli 11.1, Ross 5.3.
All that being said I would still sign up for Hamilton for three years. Too bad that's more of a LSD trip than Woodstock. They head to the General Manger's meetings in Nashville next week and if a GM can feel comfortable with 3 years you better believe there's another who will put up 5. If the haul is Swisher, LaRoche, and a Carlos Villanueva or Francisco Liriano for the rotation I'll be happy. And maybe, just maybe, they can do a deal for a good to great starter centered around Allen Webster.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Hot Stove Sizzlin' - Starting Pitching Edition
My hot stove wheels are spinning out of control! Napoli AND Swisher AND C Ross OH MY! And on MLB Hot Stove this morning Matt Vasgersian suggested a couple of guys sitting in a bar and sharing scotch was a better way to consummate trades than (in a whiny condescending voice) guys talking about this guys' OBP and this guys' WAR. Good thing MLB redeemed him with his Rush 'Fly By Night' call of a Padres home run against the DBacks in 2004. Jackass. And there was of course the flurry of activity surrounding the jaw dropping rumored Jon Lester for Wil Myers trade with the King Me Royals. Rather than thinking about why it might or might not work I was wondering why the Red Sox would even consider this. Starting pitching is It right? Lester hasn't developed into an Ace but he's still pretty good, is big minor league power really worth a solid #2 pitcher in the AL East? Are the Sox sitting on close to ready high quality starters in their system to compliment the mint that could be spent on the three amigos for the lineup?
To find out I decided to stack up a few minor league pitchers with a recent superstar brought up fairly quickly from the minors to great fanfare: Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nats. I use him because he can help to qualify the quality of our guys and he's a nice high rung to shoot for. I'm using Innings, WHIP (Walks + Hits/Innings), Home Runs per 9 innings allowed, strikeouts (K) per 9 innings pitched, and strikeouts per walks (BB). I leave out ERA because it's such a limited stat, and wins and losses because they are way beyond the starting pitcher's control. Innings show durability or red flags for the future, WHIP shows how much a pitcher controls a game, HR/9 shows how the pitcher keeps the ball in the yard, K/9 shows dominance, and K/BB piggybacks on WHIP to give texture to the precept that if you strike guys out and don't walk them you are going places my son. I'll list ages and minor league levels for each pitcher, so you know the progression is FRK, RK, A, A+, AA, AAA, Majors.
Strasburg
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
21-AA/AAA 55.1 .795 .2 10.6 5
22-A/AA/AAA 20.1 .836 .4 12.8 9.67
21-Majors 68.0 1.074 .7 12.2 5.41
22-Majors 24.0 .708 - 9 12
23-Majors 159.1 1.155 .8 11.1 4.1
Strasburg is a special case. He was a consensus #1 overall choice in the MLB draft, a college pitcher, and rushed to the Majors. His time between majors and minors has been because of Tommy John surgery. He was rushed because he's a phenom and because the Nationals needed to get fans to the ballpark. The Red Sox don't have anyone just like him, but do they have anything close? The number 1 guy in terms of potential is Matt Barnes. Like Strasburg he was a college pitcher and drafted by the Sox in 2011.
Barnes
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
22-A 26.2 .600 - 14.2 10.5
22-A+ 93 1.183 .6 8.8 3.64
22-Total 119.2 1.053 .5 10.3 4.59
Barnes showed he had nothing to prove in A ball, if Strasburg had graced A ball with his presence he would've dominated even more than Barnes by the way, so the Sox moved him up a level. Overall a very successful year, but he will only be in the Majors next year for one reason: he goes to AA and dominates like he did in A ball for a couple of months and forces their hand. Even then he'll only go around 150 innings total, instead of the 200+ required by major league starters, because jumping innings can be a danger to your health. So I was right on Pineda but wrong about Kuroda, curse you Kuroda! Barnes has awesome potential but he's not there quite yet. What about those boys from the Dodgers, Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa? Both were high school or equivalent when drafted and have been around a lot longer than Barnes.
Webster
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
18-Rk 18.1 1.582 .5 6.4 .76
19-Rk 68.2 1.102 .1 10.1 4.28
20-A 131.1 1.310 .4 7.8 2.15
21-A+/AA 145 1.407 .6 8.4 2.37
22-AA 130.2 1.485 .1 8.9 2.11
De La Rosa (Age 18 & 23 Majors stats left out due to <10 Innings Pitched)
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
19-FRK 47.1 1.162 - 9.7 2.43
20-RK 16.1 1.714 - 12.1 2
21-A/AA 110.1 1.133 .3 7.7 2.47
22-AA 40 1.225 .2 11.7 2.74
23-RK/A/AA 13 .923 - 9 3
22-Majors 60.2 1.401 .9 8.9 1.94
With Webster we see a pitcher who is walking more and more batters. While he is closer to the Majors than Barnes he looks much more like a #3 than a #2 and certainly not an Ace. It hurts to say but his upside looks to be the 2007 version of Daisuke, hopefully without the 4 hour game times. Pretty good, but that's only if he continues to increase his K/9 and cuts down the walks. A tall order, and AAA looks like the best bet to see if that's in the cards for him next year. De La Rosa is intriguing. Another victim of inning jumps (+94 from Age 20 to 21), he went through Tommy John and is just getting back. He should be ready by spring training, but his walks and homers given up at age 22 in the Majors are concerning. He's more dominant than Webster, thus a better bet to reach #2 status, but that appears to be his ceiling. The Sox could use him in the bullpen but that's a waste of potential. De La Rosa could fit in Dubrount style as the #5, but expecting anything more than 110-130 innings would be asking for trouble.
After doing this study I have to admit the haul from the Dodgers wasn't a major coup, but it certainly provides the Sox with options. Those options, however, should not be to trade a quality major league starter like Jon Lester. The trade should be of Webster or De La Rosa for major league ready or established starting pitching. Because if they sign Swisher, Ross and Napoli they will sprint down the same road they were on before The Purge if they have to sign 2 starting pitchers in free agency as well. Please, no more Vader.
Until next time,
The SAHD
To find out I decided to stack up a few minor league pitchers with a recent superstar brought up fairly quickly from the minors to great fanfare: Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nats. I use him because he can help to qualify the quality of our guys and he's a nice high rung to shoot for. I'm using Innings, WHIP (Walks + Hits/Innings), Home Runs per 9 innings allowed, strikeouts (K) per 9 innings pitched, and strikeouts per walks (BB). I leave out ERA because it's such a limited stat, and wins and losses because they are way beyond the starting pitcher's control. Innings show durability or red flags for the future, WHIP shows how much a pitcher controls a game, HR/9 shows how the pitcher keeps the ball in the yard, K/9 shows dominance, and K/BB piggybacks on WHIP to give texture to the precept that if you strike guys out and don't walk them you are going places my son. I'll list ages and minor league levels for each pitcher, so you know the progression is FRK, RK, A, A+, AA, AAA, Majors.
Strasburg
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
21-AA/AAA 55.1 .795 .2 10.6 5
22-A/AA/AAA 20.1 .836 .4 12.8 9.67
21-Majors 68.0 1.074 .7 12.2 5.41
22-Majors 24.0 .708 - 9 12
23-Majors 159.1 1.155 .8 11.1 4.1
Strasburg is a special case. He was a consensus #1 overall choice in the MLB draft, a college pitcher, and rushed to the Majors. His time between majors and minors has been because of Tommy John surgery. He was rushed because he's a phenom and because the Nationals needed to get fans to the ballpark. The Red Sox don't have anyone just like him, but do they have anything close? The number 1 guy in terms of potential is Matt Barnes. Like Strasburg he was a college pitcher and drafted by the Sox in 2011.
Barnes
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
22-A 26.2 .600 - 14.2 10.5
22-A+ 93 1.183 .6 8.8 3.64
22-Total 119.2 1.053 .5 10.3 4.59
Barnes showed he had nothing to prove in A ball, if Strasburg had graced A ball with his presence he would've dominated even more than Barnes by the way, so the Sox moved him up a level. Overall a very successful year, but he will only be in the Majors next year for one reason: he goes to AA and dominates like he did in A ball for a couple of months and forces their hand. Even then he'll only go around 150 innings total, instead of the 200+ required by major league starters, because jumping innings can be a danger to your health. So I was right on Pineda but wrong about Kuroda, curse you Kuroda! Barnes has awesome potential but he's not there quite yet. What about those boys from the Dodgers, Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa? Both were high school or equivalent when drafted and have been around a lot longer than Barnes.
Webster
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
18-Rk 18.1 1.582 .5 6.4 .76
19-Rk 68.2 1.102 .1 10.1 4.28
20-A 131.1 1.310 .4 7.8 2.15
21-A+/AA 145 1.407 .6 8.4 2.37
22-AA 130.2 1.485 .1 8.9 2.11
De La Rosa (Age 18 & 23 Majors stats left out due to <10 Innings Pitched)
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
19-FRK 47.1 1.162 - 9.7 2.43
20-RK 16.1 1.714 - 12.1 2
21-A/AA 110.1 1.133 .3 7.7 2.47
22-AA 40 1.225 .2 11.7 2.74
23-RK/A/AA 13 .923 - 9 3
22-Majors 60.2 1.401 .9 8.9 1.94
With Webster we see a pitcher who is walking more and more batters. While he is closer to the Majors than Barnes he looks much more like a #3 than a #2 and certainly not an Ace. It hurts to say but his upside looks to be the 2007 version of Daisuke, hopefully without the 4 hour game times. Pretty good, but that's only if he continues to increase his K/9 and cuts down the walks. A tall order, and AAA looks like the best bet to see if that's in the cards for him next year. De La Rosa is intriguing. Another victim of inning jumps (+94 from Age 20 to 21), he went through Tommy John and is just getting back. He should be ready by spring training, but his walks and homers given up at age 22 in the Majors are concerning. He's more dominant than Webster, thus a better bet to reach #2 status, but that appears to be his ceiling. The Sox could use him in the bullpen but that's a waste of potential. De La Rosa could fit in Dubrount style as the #5, but expecting anything more than 110-130 innings would be asking for trouble.
After doing this study I have to admit the haul from the Dodgers wasn't a major coup, but it certainly provides the Sox with options. Those options, however, should not be to trade a quality major league starter like Jon Lester. The trade should be of Webster or De La Rosa for major league ready or established starting pitching. Because if they sign Swisher, Ross and Napoli they will sprint down the same road they were on before The Purge if they have to sign 2 starting pitchers in free agency as well. Please, no more Vader.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
CHFF Pats Pass D - Jets Put Downs Edition
Last week I mentioned the Jets offense was Glass Joe compared to the Soda Popinski Colts. After that whitewashing on Thanksgiving Day I think we can all agree the Jets are Glass Joe everyday, twice on Sunday, and good for a 49-19 taking candy from a baby and the Gronk brothers beating on Bill Gates type of loss. So what did we learn? They improved yet again their Defensive Real Quarterback Rating from Cold Hard Football Facts. That's good. Keeping in mind a lower score is better, they went from 81.82 after the Colts to 81.50 after the Jets. That's not bad, per se, because the Jets are just that bad. So instead of focusing on how the Patriots improved by a lot less than .01% I'll focus on how incredibly awful the Jets are. They suck so bad Fireman Ed is hanging up his helmet. Superfan my ass by the way, a bad string by your team and you're hitting the highway? Well why don't you cry about it? Saddlebags.
Subjectively things continue to look better for Belichick's minions. My questions update:
Until next time,
The SAHD
Subjectively things continue to look better for Belichick's minions. My questions update:
- Aqib Talib: They didn't throw his way as he had zero passes defended. This clearly was more about the slack jawed troglodytes chucking the ball for Rex Ryan than Talib's one on one ability. However it cannot be denied that there has been improvement since he got here. That earns a soft B.
- The rookies Jones and Hightower: Hightower continued his recovery from a tight hammy earlier in the season with a sack and 4 tackles (3 solo 1 assisted). And it's a good thing considering his fellow linebacker Jermaine Cunningham has just been suspended for 4 games for PEDs. As for Chandler Jones there are still questions about his ankle injury. The Boston Herald's The Blitz blog had the incredibly well researched and dirt digging insight that he walked without a limp for about 5 seconds. Of course the Patriots are so tight lipped and childish about releasing information that this tidbit qualifies as an injury update. What I don't understand is why sports departments at local news organizations don't hire private investigators to at the very least follow injured players around and at best get some real information? Are the Patriots going to cut the media off? Oh no, then they won't get to run the fluff and Stalin-esque propaganda pieces that are the height of 'time to change the channel'. Why hasn't Ron Borges done something like this?
- Tackling? Forcing a couple of fumbles, no breakaway runs, things are looking better.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Sox FA SS Target, Giving Thanks & The Kuroda Curse Edition
First things first, I'm thankful for my readers, for Kerry Byrne of Cold Hard Football facts and Dan Roche of WBZ for retweeting this blog, for my ravishing wife and her beautiful soul, for the health of my children, the grace of God and simply the ability to blog.
Now Peter Gammons just pointed out on MLB Network's Hot Stove that there is a new Red Sox curse, the curse of Hiroki Kuroda. Apparently Kuroda nixed a deal to the Red Sox in July of 2011 on the principal that you do not leave your teammates behind. I love the self awareness and poetry (go to 2:30 or so of this video) that exists in some Japanese ball players. There's my baseball romantic side again. Anyhow, Gammons pointed out if Kuroda had been on that Sox team beerandchickengate may never have happened. Only Governor Arnold can express how I feel after hearing that.
The Red Sox continue to search for a first baseman, a shortstop, outfielders and starting pitchers. I've produced focused studies on the best fits at everyday positions, starting pitchers, 1st base, and even some big money outfielders. There's rumors galore out there for every position, but I thought I would look into a player that Bob Ryan would question. That's right, J.D. Drew's little brother Stephen Drew, who is just behind the one time Red Sox now post season hero Marco Scutaro on MLBTradeRumor's top 50 free agents. I've been reticent to consider him, as BaseballHQ says 'Disappointment, thy name is Drew', but the fact is he does have some talent in a very weak SS market and could be had with a one year deal so why not.
I'll take some stats from BaseballHQ and Baseball Reference, including their version of the controversial WAR, and see what I find.
Age HR OBA OPS WAR BB% GB% FB% HR/F
24 12 .313 .683 -0.2 10% 38% 46% 6%
25 21 .336 .838 2.7 6% 35% 43% 10%
26 12 .323 .751 2.7 8% 39% 42% 6%
27 15 .349 .808 3.7 10% 40% 41% 8%
28 5 .316 .712 1.7 9% 39% 40% 5%
29 7 .312 .660 -0.6 11% 32% 40% 8%
Drew broke his ankle in July of 2011, his age 28 season, and was still recovering last year between Arizona and Oakland. Just like his big brother he has been accused of milking injuries, but what if last year he was still recovering and this year will be the first year he's back to normal since a full age 27 season? It's a big 'if', but look at some of those age 27 vs age 29 numbers: BB% 10/11, FB% 41/40, HR/F 8/8. His GB% registered as the lowest in his career last year yet his FB% remained constant. This tells me he was hitting a lot more line drives. There is some data out there on how hard a ball is hit, which is still somewhat developing, but according to BaseballHQ his hard hit % was 31%, which isn't far from his age 27 season of 33%. His soft hit % however was 18% after being at 19% at age 28 but never higher than 16% at age 27 and earlier. All of this tells me he was still recovering, hitting some more cans of corn than usual with that soft hit %, and was a bit unlucky getting hits considering he was hitting the ball almost as hard as his age 27 season.
There is plenty of risk, if his temperament is anything like J.D.'s he won't be a good fit and he will definitely be treated with a 'soft player' bias by the media and fans the first chance we get. But there is a lot more potential to a very productive playing for a contract one year player here than I expected. As long as the bidding doesn't get out of control between all the rumored teams (Detroit, New York, Oakland, etc.) the Sox could do a lot worse.
Until next time and Happy Thanksgiving,
The SAHD
Now Peter Gammons just pointed out on MLB Network's Hot Stove that there is a new Red Sox curse, the curse of Hiroki Kuroda. Apparently Kuroda nixed a deal to the Red Sox in July of 2011 on the principal that you do not leave your teammates behind. I love the self awareness and poetry (go to 2:30 or so of this video) that exists in some Japanese ball players. There's my baseball romantic side again. Anyhow, Gammons pointed out if Kuroda had been on that Sox team beerandchickengate may never have happened. Only Governor Arnold can express how I feel after hearing that.
The Red Sox continue to search for a first baseman, a shortstop, outfielders and starting pitchers. I've produced focused studies on the best fits at everyday positions, starting pitchers, 1st base, and even some big money outfielders. There's rumors galore out there for every position, but I thought I would look into a player that Bob Ryan would question. That's right, J.D. Drew's little brother Stephen Drew, who is just behind the one time Red Sox now post season hero Marco Scutaro on MLBTradeRumor's top 50 free agents. I've been reticent to consider him, as BaseballHQ says 'Disappointment, thy name is Drew', but the fact is he does have some talent in a very weak SS market and could be had with a one year deal so why not.
I'll take some stats from BaseballHQ and Baseball Reference, including their version of the controversial WAR, and see what I find.
Age HR OBA OPS WAR BB% GB% FB% HR/F
24 12 .313 .683 -0.2 10% 38% 46% 6%
25 21 .336 .838 2.7 6% 35% 43% 10%
26 12 .323 .751 2.7 8% 39% 42% 6%
27 15 .349 .808 3.7 10% 40% 41% 8%
28 5 .316 .712 1.7 9% 39% 40% 5%
29 7 .312 .660 -0.6 11% 32% 40% 8%
Drew broke his ankle in July of 2011, his age 28 season, and was still recovering last year between Arizona and Oakland. Just like his big brother he has been accused of milking injuries, but what if last year he was still recovering and this year will be the first year he's back to normal since a full age 27 season? It's a big 'if', but look at some of those age 27 vs age 29 numbers: BB% 10/11, FB% 41/40, HR/F 8/8. His GB% registered as the lowest in his career last year yet his FB% remained constant. This tells me he was hitting a lot more line drives. There is some data out there on how hard a ball is hit, which is still somewhat developing, but according to BaseballHQ his hard hit % was 31%, which isn't far from his age 27 season of 33%. His soft hit % however was 18% after being at 19% at age 28 but never higher than 16% at age 27 and earlier. All of this tells me he was still recovering, hitting some more cans of corn than usual with that soft hit %, and was a bit unlucky getting hits considering he was hitting the ball almost as hard as his age 27 season.
There is plenty of risk, if his temperament is anything like J.D.'s he won't be a good fit and he will definitely be treated with a 'soft player' bias by the media and fans the first chance we get. But there is a lot more potential to a very productive playing for a contract one year player here than I expected. As long as the bidding doesn't get out of control between all the rumored teams (Detroit, New York, Oakland, etc.) the Sox could do a lot worse.
Until next time and Happy Thanksgiving,
The SAHD
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Pats D - 4% over Glass Joe is Von Kaiser Edition
Last week I mentioned how necessary is was for New England to improve its pass defense. Let's see an update on the questions I posed:
"About Defensive Real Quarterback Rating. We introduced Real Quarterback Rating and Defensive Real Quarterback Rating before the 2011 season as a way to quantify all aspect of QB play. It's been a TOTAL score behind your wildest dreams. Teams better in Real QB Rating in 2011 went an incredible 223-33 (.871), proving that winning in the NFL is almost always about more efficient play at the QB position. -SNIP- Real Defensive Quarterback Rating measures how opposing quarterbacks perform against a given team not just passing, but also rushing. It also takes into account fumbles, rushes, rushing yards and sack stats to produce a new kind of rating that measures an opposing quarterback's overall performance with the ball, not just as a passer when he actually releases the ball (which is all that passer rating currently measures)."
After week 11 the Pats DRQBR was at a mediocre 22nd ranked score of 85.54. After the Colts game they are now in the exceptionally ordinary position of 18th in the league at 81.82. Hey, it's an 4% improvement. Baby steps to the quarterback, baby steps to tight coverage, baby steps to making a tackle. 4% is better than nothing. Then again right now the Patriots D is cooked spinach on my kids plate. 4% better than 'NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO I WILL NEVER EAT THIS!' is this far from total crap. So what about the competition?
With identical 6-3 records coming into this game the teams seemed somewhat evenly matched, with ballyhooed rookie QB Andrew Luck supposedly presenting a challenge to the pass defense. The general consensus, as seen in this Peter King piece, was that Luck would have a good day as long as he did't turn it over. We all know what happened. A couple of pick 6s will ruin anyone's day. The truth is Indy was a poor passing offense. After Week 11 Luck and Co had a RQBR score of 76.02, good for 22nd in the NFL. After playing the Patriots there are now at 73.63 and stand 24th. In other words the Indy passing offense is worse than another Family Guy time machine episode.
The Pats gave us a little sniff, a few pills pushed across the table instead of a full bottle. The pass defense is improving. Talib talked about getting comfortable and I'm optimistic he will improve. Even with Jones out Ninkovich picked up the pressure on the passer. Unfortunately they face the Jets this week, they of the 29th ranked RQBR score of 65.52. The Colts will look like Soda Popinski compared to the Glass Joe Jets on Thanksgiving night. Let's hope they can show incremental improvement again until the real tests in Weeks 14 and 15 against the Texans and 49ers.
Until next time,
The SAHD
- Is Aqib Talib the answer? Hey, I'll take a DB who grabs an interception and returns it to the house everyday and twice on Sundays. He didn't look great those first couple of series,and Zolak mentioned on the air how much help he had over the top from safeties. But he did help to hold Reggie Wayne to his worst game of the year, so after week 1 the answer is possibly. A lot better than no.
- Will Jones and Hightower get better or break down? The bad news, Jones suffered an ankle injury that may require some missed time. Looks like a break down to me. The good news in Hightower looked active and blocked a pass to be part of a 3 and out. This particular series was critical as it helped to shatter Indy's hopes and dreams of a shootout. Jones' pass rush is a critical part of the pass defense, if he is down for any length of time it could be an issue. After 1 week this answer is incomplete.
- Will the tackling improve? I watched in horror as the Indy ground game gained huge chunks of yards in the first quarter as tacklers did their best Goofy on roller skates impression. But they tightened it up the rest of the game. Will give them a yes.
"About Defensive Real Quarterback Rating. We introduced Real Quarterback Rating and Defensive Real Quarterback Rating before the 2011 season as a way to quantify all aspect of QB play. It's been a TOTAL score behind your wildest dreams. Teams better in Real QB Rating in 2011 went an incredible 223-33 (.871), proving that winning in the NFL is almost always about more efficient play at the QB position. -SNIP- Real Defensive Quarterback Rating measures how opposing quarterbacks perform against a given team not just passing, but also rushing. It also takes into account fumbles, rushes, rushing yards and sack stats to produce a new kind of rating that measures an opposing quarterback's overall performance with the ball, not just as a passer when he actually releases the ball (which is all that passer rating currently measures)."
After week 11 the Pats DRQBR was at a mediocre 22nd ranked score of 85.54. After the Colts game they are now in the exceptionally ordinary position of 18th in the league at 81.82. Hey, it's an 4% improvement. Baby steps to the quarterback, baby steps to tight coverage, baby steps to making a tackle. 4% is better than nothing. Then again right now the Patriots D is cooked spinach on my kids plate. 4% better than 'NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO I WILL NEVER EAT THIS!' is this far from total crap. So what about the competition?
With identical 6-3 records coming into this game the teams seemed somewhat evenly matched, with ballyhooed rookie QB Andrew Luck supposedly presenting a challenge to the pass defense. The general consensus, as seen in this Peter King piece, was that Luck would have a good day as long as he did't turn it over. We all know what happened. A couple of pick 6s will ruin anyone's day. The truth is Indy was a poor passing offense. After Week 11 Luck and Co had a RQBR score of 76.02, good for 22nd in the NFL. After playing the Patriots there are now at 73.63 and stand 24th. In other words the Indy passing offense is worse than another Family Guy time machine episode.
The Pats gave us a little sniff, a few pills pushed across the table instead of a full bottle. The pass defense is improving. Talib talked about getting comfortable and I'm optimistic he will improve. Even with Jones out Ninkovich picked up the pressure on the passer. Unfortunately they face the Jets this week, they of the 29th ranked RQBR score of 65.52. The Colts will look like Soda Popinski compared to the Glass Joe Jets on Thanksgiving night. Let's hope they can show incremental improvement again until the real tests in Weeks 14 and 15 against the Texans and 49ers.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Friday, November 16, 2012
AL MVP-SABR Old School Hold Hands Edition
As a Sox fan trying to look forward rather than back (embracing 'there's always next year' fits like an old shoe, stinky yet comfortable), I've paid less than a little attention to the post season awards. But when I pull up Grantland's About Last Night blog post and read things like "Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera won the AL MVP award, beating out Angels rookie Mike Trout by a healthy margin. And now it's time for the ANGRY OLD SPORTSWRITER! "Look, I know all you stat nerds out there are going 'Wahhh, wahhh, Trout should have won because he has a higher WAR.' You know what I think of that? HAR. As in HARDY HAR-HAR, morons. There's so much Trout love going around that I think the sports world is full of bears. And guess what? Bears eat salmon, so you're wrong there, too. Get a grip. Miguel Cabrera won a Triple Crown, you sniveling little Adlai Stevensons. " I get intrigued. My morning Boston Globe view found this Eric Wilbur raging piece on a raging Keith Law, and with all the vitriol seen on Twitter I wondered what I actually thought about this race.
In the WAR battle it's Trout all over Miggy, 10.7 to 7.4. That's a big win. But Miggy did win the AL Triple Crown for the first time since Yaz in 1967, and I'm unabashedly a baseball history romantic, which is why it's taken me so long to stop worrying and love the steroid era. From Wilbur's piece and sports talk radio the last day or so I got the idea that Miggy was better than Trout the last month of the season and the Tigers made the playoffs and Angels didn't, so that's where I went, and here's what I found.
I compared the stats over the last 31 days for each player, which gives a starting date of 8/31 for Miggy and 8/30 for Trout. Thanks to BaseballHQ this is what I found:
At Bats Runs Hits HR RBI SB OPS
Trout 101 22 31 5 9 7 .932
Cabrera 108 22 35 11 28 0 1.067
That's crunch time in major league baseball, and even though Trout is a leadoff hitter, thus not in a position or asked to drive in runs, he had an outstanding last month. Now some context, where was each team in the standings and what ended up happening.
Team Angels 8/30/12 Tigers 8/31/12
Record 69-62 70-61
Games Back Wild Card 3.5 3
Games Back Division 8.5 2
Record Final 31 Games 20-11 18-13
Final Stadings 4 Back Wild Card Division Champ
Well isn't that interesting. The Angels killed it over the last month but finished third in the tough AL West while the Tigers beat out a fading White Sox to win the AL Central. What about the players around them? I'll keep it simple with teammate OPS numbers for the last month.
Trout's more or less lineup: 1. Trout .932 2. Hunter .899 3. Pujols .734 4. Morales .878 5. Trumbo .586 6. Kendrick .671 6. Wells .687 7. Izturis .550 8. Callaspo .699 9. Iannetta .601
Cabrera's more or less lineup 1. Jackson .742 2. Dirks .769 2. Raburn .393 3. Miggy 1.067 4. Fielder .584 5. Young .533 6. Boesch .461 7. Peralta .505 8. Berry .529 9. Avila .759
Cabrera had a much more fluid lineup. There were some other ABs to be had in the Angles lineup but not nearly as much of a revolving door as the Tigers. I began with the Angels lineup and saw how much better Trout was than the rest and thought this would nail it for him, then I got to the Tigers. Cabrera had a much more rag-tag group around him. Cabrera had 6 players around him at any time with sub .600 OPSs, Trout's team only had 2 sub .600 regulars.
All things considered, Trout did have an outstanding season and last month in crunch time, but Miggy had an otherworldly last month with a significantly weaker lineup around him. I believe in clutch, Big Papi in 2004 made it so. Trout was clutch, but Triple Crown Winner Cabrera was as much of a one man show as one player in a 9 player lineup can be when it counted the most. It doesn't knock Trout down a peg, it just lifts Cabrera up. There's no need for name calling or pitting new wave against classic rock, they both had incredible years any way you slice it, but Cabrera was the right choice.
Until next time,
The SAHD
In the WAR battle it's Trout all over Miggy, 10.7 to 7.4. That's a big win. But Miggy did win the AL Triple Crown for the first time since Yaz in 1967, and I'm unabashedly a baseball history romantic, which is why it's taken me so long to stop worrying and love the steroid era. From Wilbur's piece and sports talk radio the last day or so I got the idea that Miggy was better than Trout the last month of the season and the Tigers made the playoffs and Angels didn't, so that's where I went, and here's what I found.
I compared the stats over the last 31 days for each player, which gives a starting date of 8/31 for Miggy and 8/30 for Trout. Thanks to BaseballHQ this is what I found:
At Bats Runs Hits HR RBI SB OPS
Trout 101 22 31 5 9 7 .932
Cabrera 108 22 35 11 28 0 1.067
That's crunch time in major league baseball, and even though Trout is a leadoff hitter, thus not in a position or asked to drive in runs, he had an outstanding last month. Now some context, where was each team in the standings and what ended up happening.
Team Angels 8/30/12 Tigers 8/31/12
Record 69-62 70-61
Games Back Wild Card 3.5 3
Games Back Division 8.5 2
Record Final 31 Games 20-11 18-13
Final Stadings 4 Back Wild Card Division Champ
Well isn't that interesting. The Angels killed it over the last month but finished third in the tough AL West while the Tigers beat out a fading White Sox to win the AL Central. What about the players around them? I'll keep it simple with teammate OPS numbers for the last month.
Trout's more or less lineup: 1. Trout .932 2. Hunter .899 3. Pujols .734 4. Morales .878 5. Trumbo .586 6. Kendrick .671 6. Wells .687 7. Izturis .550 8. Callaspo .699 9. Iannetta .601
Cabrera's more or less lineup 1. Jackson .742 2. Dirks .769 2. Raburn .393 3. Miggy 1.067 4. Fielder .584 5. Young .533 6. Boesch .461 7. Peralta .505 8. Berry .529 9. Avila .759
Cabrera had a much more fluid lineup. There were some other ABs to be had in the Angles lineup but not nearly as much of a revolving door as the Tigers. I began with the Angels lineup and saw how much better Trout was than the rest and thought this would nail it for him, then I got to the Tigers. Cabrera had a much more rag-tag group around him. Cabrera had 6 players around him at any time with sub .600 OPSs, Trout's team only had 2 sub .600 regulars.
All things considered, Trout did have an outstanding season and last month in crunch time, but Miggy had an otherworldly last month with a significantly weaker lineup around him. I believe in clutch, Big Papi in 2004 made it so. Trout was clutch, but Triple Crown Winner Cabrera was as much of a one man show as one player in a 9 player lineup can be when it counted the most. It doesn't knock Trout down a peg, it just lifts Cabrera up. There's no need for name calling or pitting new wave against classic rock, they both had incredible years any way you slice it, but Cabrera was the right choice.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Red Sox Non-Trade & FA Big $ Hitter WAR Edition
So there was a HUGE trade involving the AL East, in case you haven't heard. Medicals are still being worked out but fair to say this Toronto Boston playground battle plays on. Toronto gave up prospects and young players which I won't go into now, and in return they received SS Jose Reyes, Utility Infielder Emilio Bonifacio, SP Josh Johnson, SP Mark Buehrle and C John Buck. This was a smart move by the Jays, they have the money, the NHL is shut down currently, and they have packed the former Sky Dome to the gills in the past. A very impressive haul and with Johnson pitching for a contract, Buehrle eating innings, and Reyes topping a batting order with Jose Batista and Edwin Encarnacion they will most likely be a formidable team.
The risk to these players, however, is quite real, and if the reports of Middlebrooks, Bogaerts (the current Baseball America #1 prospect in the Sox system) and Dubront being asked for by the Marlins are real, much too steep a price to pay. Let's look at some past big named pitcher trades and compare their ages and WAR. Yes, there is WAR for pitchers too, Baseball Reference details it here. In a nutshell it takes into account level of competition, park factors, team defense, and like Kung Fu Joe a whole bunch of other things you ain't never heard of. I find it much more accurate than traditional measures like ERA and fairly comparable over time frames. My Red Sox passion was kindled at a very young age, and got battle tested going to college in central New York and having to defend myself against the legion of Yankee fans. You know, those Yankee fans of the mid to late 90s who compare so nicely with Patriot fans of today. A fond memory is my buddy The Bishop skipping through our apartment complex with a loud and boisterous proclamation 'WE GOT JACK BLACK, WE GOT JACK BLACK, WE GOT JACK BLACK!'. Black Jack McDowell, remember him? Cy Young runner up at age 26 and winner at age 27 for the White Sox in 1993, he was traded to the Yankees after his age 28 season to the Yankees for flotsam and jetsum and promptly fell off a cliff. Then there is the granddaddy of them all for Sox nation, the trade for the sublime, the predominant, The Ace of aces, Pedro Martinez after his age 25 season. Sitting in the stands, Fenway pulsing with every pitch, Dominican flags waving, transcendent performances, Joe Castiglione calling over the radio "this is the (insert insane number) time Pedro has struck out 10 or more in his Red Sox career". And now we have the aforementioned All Star Josh Johnson and workman like Buhrle, who's paid like an All Star. I'm going to compare WAR to Age up to trades and beyond in Pedro and McDowell's case (*denotes 1st year with new team):
Name: McDowell Pedro Johnson Buehrle
Age/WAR 24/1.2 22/2.2 22/3.0 28/5.9
25/4.1 23/4.5 23/-.6 29/4.2
26/4.9 24/3.8 24/1.9 30/5.0
27/4.1 25/8.7 25/6.4 31/3.6
28/3.5 26/6.9* 26/6.8 32/3.5
29/3.7* 27/9.5 27/2.8 33/3.2
30/1.1 28/11.4 28/3.1
As you can see the point is the mid twenties is the time you should trade big chips for a great pitcher. Buehrle and McDowell are comparable not only for their White Sox connection but somewhat equal primes. While Black Jack won with grit and determination Buehrle at his best won with almost no walks and excellent fielding. McDowell's downfall, and why the Yanks got him for so little, was walking too many batters and pitching 250+ innings from ages 25-27. Pedro was worth every bit of the at the time biggest contract ever given a pitcher (buying out his last year of arbitration) and cream of the Red Sox SP prospects (Carl Pavano & Tony Armas Jr.), as the Sox got his age 26-32 seasons. As you can see, Johnson was at his best at ages 25 and 26. He's now on his second year back from tommy john surgery but will be a free agent after this year and there's no guarantee you could sign him. He's not an all-time talent and you would be paying for a most likely good to great year but much more of an injury risk than Pedro ever was. As for Reyes and Bonafacio, Reyes is dynamic but has elevated injury risk of the type which rob a speed player of his dynamical abilities and makes huge money and Bonafacio has a career .329 OBP. The Sox just went through trading for and/or signing big money players in their near end of primes. Did we really want to go through that again?
Listening to both WEEI and The Sports Hub yesterday afternoon there was a lot of support for a huge money deal for three years for Josh Hamilton. Former MVP and personal problem time bomb, Hamilton is the biggest name on the free agent market. But while I'd rather the Sox not spend big money on a free agent positional player, thus my advocacy for a return to the off seasons of 2002/2003, I have a better option: B.J. Upton. Yes that loafing mercurial talent. Lets compare these two using the WAR for positional players:
Name Hamilton Upton
Age/WAR 27/5.2 23/3.1
28/0.4 24/0.8
29/8.4 25/1.0
30/3.5 26/2.8
31/3.4 27/2.6
For positional players, 8+ WAR scores are MVP seasons, 5+ are All Star level, and 3+ is starter level. Hamilton is high caliber starting material, but despite hitting 43 homer with 128 RBI last year he only posted a 3.4 WAR. Why is that? Things like baserunning, defense and injury. Considering his history Hamilton is an old 31 and his decline is likely, even over the next few years. Upton on the other hand will cost a good deal of money but his potential is likely given his age and health. Also, considering Upton's known to not put in the work perhaps the fear striking and multiple batting coaches to watch over him Farrell led team would get more out of him. I'd rather the Sox pay for years 27-31 or so for Upton than ages 32-35 for Hamilton, if it must be done.
Until next time,
The SAHD
The risk to these players, however, is quite real, and if the reports of Middlebrooks, Bogaerts (the current Baseball America #1 prospect in the Sox system) and Dubront being asked for by the Marlins are real, much too steep a price to pay. Let's look at some past big named pitcher trades and compare their ages and WAR. Yes, there is WAR for pitchers too, Baseball Reference details it here. In a nutshell it takes into account level of competition, park factors, team defense, and like Kung Fu Joe a whole bunch of other things you ain't never heard of. I find it much more accurate than traditional measures like ERA and fairly comparable over time frames. My Red Sox passion was kindled at a very young age, and got battle tested going to college in central New York and having to defend myself against the legion of Yankee fans. You know, those Yankee fans of the mid to late 90s who compare so nicely with Patriot fans of today. A fond memory is my buddy The Bishop skipping through our apartment complex with a loud and boisterous proclamation 'WE GOT JACK BLACK, WE GOT JACK BLACK, WE GOT JACK BLACK!'. Black Jack McDowell, remember him? Cy Young runner up at age 26 and winner at age 27 for the White Sox in 1993, he was traded to the Yankees after his age 28 season to the Yankees for flotsam and jetsum and promptly fell off a cliff. Then there is the granddaddy of them all for Sox nation, the trade for the sublime, the predominant, The Ace of aces, Pedro Martinez after his age 25 season. Sitting in the stands, Fenway pulsing with every pitch, Dominican flags waving, transcendent performances, Joe Castiglione calling over the radio "this is the (insert insane number) time Pedro has struck out 10 or more in his Red Sox career". And now we have the aforementioned All Star Josh Johnson and workman like Buhrle, who's paid like an All Star. I'm going to compare WAR to Age up to trades and beyond in Pedro and McDowell's case (*denotes 1st year with new team):
Name: McDowell Pedro Johnson Buehrle
Age/WAR 24/1.2 22/2.2 22/3.0 28/5.9
25/4.1 23/4.5 23/-.6 29/4.2
26/4.9 24/3.8 24/1.9 30/5.0
27/4.1 25/8.7 25/6.4 31/3.6
28/3.5 26/6.9* 26/6.8 32/3.5
29/3.7* 27/9.5 27/2.8 33/3.2
30/1.1 28/11.4 28/3.1
As you can see the point is the mid twenties is the time you should trade big chips for a great pitcher. Buehrle and McDowell are comparable not only for their White Sox connection but somewhat equal primes. While Black Jack won with grit and determination Buehrle at his best won with almost no walks and excellent fielding. McDowell's downfall, and why the Yanks got him for so little, was walking too many batters and pitching 250+ innings from ages 25-27. Pedro was worth every bit of the at the time biggest contract ever given a pitcher (buying out his last year of arbitration) and cream of the Red Sox SP prospects (Carl Pavano & Tony Armas Jr.), as the Sox got his age 26-32 seasons. As you can see, Johnson was at his best at ages 25 and 26. He's now on his second year back from tommy john surgery but will be a free agent after this year and there's no guarantee you could sign him. He's not an all-time talent and you would be paying for a most likely good to great year but much more of an injury risk than Pedro ever was. As for Reyes and Bonafacio, Reyes is dynamic but has elevated injury risk of the type which rob a speed player of his dynamical abilities and makes huge money and Bonafacio has a career .329 OBP. The Sox just went through trading for and/or signing big money players in their near end of primes. Did we really want to go through that again?
Listening to both WEEI and The Sports Hub yesterday afternoon there was a lot of support for a huge money deal for three years for Josh Hamilton. Former MVP and personal problem time bomb, Hamilton is the biggest name on the free agent market. But while I'd rather the Sox not spend big money on a free agent positional player, thus my advocacy for a return to the off seasons of 2002/2003, I have a better option: B.J. Upton. Yes that loafing mercurial talent. Lets compare these two using the WAR for positional players:
Name Hamilton Upton
Age/WAR 27/5.2 23/3.1
28/0.4 24/0.8
29/8.4 25/1.0
30/3.5 26/2.8
31/3.4 27/2.6
For positional players, 8+ WAR scores are MVP seasons, 5+ are All Star level, and 3+ is starter level. Hamilton is high caliber starting material, but despite hitting 43 homer with 128 RBI last year he only posted a 3.4 WAR. Why is that? Things like baserunning, defense and injury. Considering his history Hamilton is an old 31 and his decline is likely, even over the next few years. Upton on the other hand will cost a good deal of money but his potential is likely given his age and health. Also, considering Upton's known to not put in the work perhaps the fear striking and multiple batting coaches to watch over him Farrell led team would get more out of him. I'd rather the Sox pay for years 27-31 or so for Upton than ages 32-35 for Hamilton, if it must be done.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
The Patriots Defense Crushed By CHFF Edition
Yesterday, with the help of those glorious knights of football truth at Cold Hard Football Facts I took a look at how the Patriots offense, and Tom Brady in particular, has performed as well as or even better than last year despite missing some key weapons. Furthermore it was against a schedule that right now doesn't look so intimidating but at the time the teams locked horns actually compares quite well against the hard early schedule for the Pats last year. Today it's the defenses turn, and woe to the fan in me as the best cornerstone I could think of to begin my analysis was those pesky puke inducing Payton Manning led Colts of 2006. That was a team with an all time QB and shaky defense that put it together at the right time to win it all. What can the CHFF lay bare that has been heretofore shrouded in mystery? Here's the news: this team is in Barney.
I mentioned it yesterday, but I am again going to the Defensive Passer Rating (DPR). By the way I focus on the passing stats because this is a passing league, now more than ever. Anyone who watched Eli Manning carve up the Patriots through the air in the closing minutes of the Super Bowl, or sees that the last 9 Super Bowl champs have had Brady, Eli, Payton, Brees, Rogers, or Roethlisburger at QB, can see my point. As usual, a bow to the CHFF for wiping the dirt from my eyes on this subject. After week 10 of the 2006 season The Colts has a DPR of 84.40 which was bad, ranked 21st if the NFL at that time. They ended the season not much better with a mark of 82.57, good for 19th. That team had Freeney and Mathis rushing the passer and Bob Sanders doing his best Ronny Lott impression for the last part of the year and throughout the playoffs. Depressingly, currently the Patriots, with the hall of fame defensive game plan mastermind Bill Belichick running the show, have a horrifyingly awful DPR of 97.75. That is ranked 28th, ironically making every opposing QB look like Tom Brady on a good day. That is not good enough, and by that I mean Super Bowl good enough. I can't help myself, as much as I try to appreciate what we have here my expectations are outrageous, and unless this defense turns it around against the pass there will be no joy in Plainville.
In 2006 Payton Manning and the Colts offense finished the year ranked #1 in passer rating with a 100.95. Brady and Co. right are #3 at 96.15. The offense is good enough to carry a halfway decent pass defense to the promised land. Can the Patriots turn it around? Is Aqib Talib the answer? Will the young dynamic duo of Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower reach closer to their potential or wear down? Will the defensive backs and linebackers begin to be sure tacklers? If the braintrust at Patriots Place can get some affirmatives on those questions and push the pass defense to a remarkable improvement then we're good. More likely Bruce Campbell has the answer.
Until next time,
The SAHD
I mentioned it yesterday, but I am again going to the Defensive Passer Rating (DPR). By the way I focus on the passing stats because this is a passing league, now more than ever. Anyone who watched Eli Manning carve up the Patriots through the air in the closing minutes of the Super Bowl, or sees that the last 9 Super Bowl champs have had Brady, Eli, Payton, Brees, Rogers, or Roethlisburger at QB, can see my point. As usual, a bow to the CHFF for wiping the dirt from my eyes on this subject. After week 10 of the 2006 season The Colts has a DPR of 84.40 which was bad, ranked 21st if the NFL at that time. They ended the season not much better with a mark of 82.57, good for 19th. That team had Freeney and Mathis rushing the passer and Bob Sanders doing his best Ronny Lott impression for the last part of the year and throughout the playoffs. Depressingly, currently the Patriots, with the hall of fame defensive game plan mastermind Bill Belichick running the show, have a horrifyingly awful DPR of 97.75. That is ranked 28th, ironically making every opposing QB look like Tom Brady on a good day. That is not good enough, and by that I mean Super Bowl good enough. I can't help myself, as much as I try to appreciate what we have here my expectations are outrageous, and unless this defense turns it around against the pass there will be no joy in Plainville.
In 2006 Payton Manning and the Colts offense finished the year ranked #1 in passer rating with a 100.95. Brady and Co. right are #3 at 96.15. The offense is good enough to carry a halfway decent pass defense to the promised land. Can the Patriots turn it around? Is Aqib Talib the answer? Will the young dynamic duo of Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower reach closer to their potential or wear down? Will the defensive backs and linebackers begin to be sure tacklers? If the braintrust at Patriots Place can get some affirmatives on those questions and push the pass defense to a remarkable improvement then we're good. More likely Bruce Campbell has the answer.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Brady Under The CHFF Microscope Edition
There's a lot of consternation among those covering the Patriots and a good portion of the fans heard on local sports radio about this 2012 Patriots team. I've had a feeling that Tom Brady's season is being somewhat under appreciated and wanted to see how close to the truth my bad feelings about the defense were, especially after the Bills looked like they had the Pats by the short hairs before Captain Crimson threw a perfect spiral right to Devin McCourty. The shock was he caught it for the interception to end the game. Lately it appears those famous Pepper Johnson whipping a football right at a defenders face who tries to catch it drills were as futile as Mitt Romney's battleground states plan. See? Emotion begets blah blah blah sarcasm and cheap jokes. To the foot of the sage trolls at Cold Hard Football Facts I return for answers. Save me from this morass of what my eyes tell me, what Felger spouts and Mazz agrees with, and Mutt sticking to his claim that Chandler Jones will go to the football Hall Of Fame some day this morning oh wise ones!
The CHFF have this wonderful stat called Real Quarterback Rating (RQBR). It's just like the regular QB rating, only better. In their words: "We introduced Real Quarterback Rating before the 2011 season as a way to quantify all aspect of QB play. It's been a TOTAL score behind your wildest dreams. Teams better in Real QB Rating in 2011 went an incredible 223-33 (.871) -SNIP- The current passer rating is just that, a measure of passing effectiveness. Real Quarterback Rating includes rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing TDs, fumbles and sacks to produce a new kind of rating that measures a quarterback's overall performance with the ball, not just as a passer when he actually releases the ball (which is all that passer rating currently measures)." Perfect, seeing as I want to compare last year, when the team went to the Super Bowl, to this year 2 years of data is great. Along with that I wanted to check the defenses the Patriots have played over the first 10 weeks this year vs last year. For that I used a CHFF stat called Defensive Passer Rating (DPR), which means in a nutshell the QB rating a defense gives up.
Last year at this time Tom Brady had a RQBR of 95.58, ranking 3rd in the NFL. I took the DPR for each team the Patriots played against through week 10 of 2011 at the time the Pats played them. That is Miami's DPR week 1, San Diego's DPR week 2, etc. Last years opponents also included the Revis Island led New York Jets twice, the stout Steelers of last year, and the New York Football Giants. Those defenses averaged a DPR of 86.14. In other words, those Ds made opposing QBs look like the Matt Shaub of this year. That's the Matt Shaub with zero playoff wins on his resume and lives on a vicious D and the best running back in the game. And keep in mind that the DPR was measured just after the team played Brady and his 95.58 RQBR. Brady ended the year with a 99.35 RQBR as the team went on an 8-0 streak, against a string of horrible QBs by the way, to finish at 13-3 and go to the Super Bowl.
So what about this year? Brady is again 3rd in the NFL, this time with a RQBR of 96.15. And the defenses he's been up against? It may not seem like it but the opposing average DPR has been 88.77. That's only a 2% difference from the murders row of last year. They've faced just about the same schedule in terms of weekly difficulty and Brady has performed slightly better than a year ago. Pretty impressive I'd say considering Mankins has missed time on the offensive line and Aaron Hernandez has only played a game and a half. The remaining schedule this year is rather daunting. Current DPRs Indy 96.54, Jets 81.79, Miami 80.08 twice, Houston 71.65, 49ers 77.23, Jaguars 87.11. In Brady's favor going forward is he has been without the aforementioned Hernandez. That's the guy who was Brady's 3rd option last year with 79 catches for 910 yds and 7 TDs. He's been replaced this year by Brandon Lloyd, who in turn has replaced Deion Branch as the second WR behind Welker in terms of production. And then there is the running game. This year Steven Ridley has 814 yards, is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and has scored 6 TDs. Last year Green-Ellis was the lead back and went 667-3.7-11 for the full year. Add it all up and assuming Hernandez comes back soon, we can agree Lloyd is a better option than Branch, and the running game is approximately 40% better than last year, then Brady should have a better offense to attack those good defenses the last half of the year.
So what about the defense? That's a subject I'll tackle tomorrow when I'll be looking at this year's Patriots team vs Payton Manning's Super Bowl 2006 Colts team.
Until next time,
The SAHD
The CHFF have this wonderful stat called Real Quarterback Rating (RQBR). It's just like the regular QB rating, only better. In their words: "We introduced Real Quarterback Rating before the 2011 season as a way to quantify all aspect of QB play. It's been a TOTAL score behind your wildest dreams. Teams better in Real QB Rating in 2011 went an incredible 223-33 (.871) -SNIP- The current passer rating is just that, a measure of passing effectiveness. Real Quarterback Rating includes rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing TDs, fumbles and sacks to produce a new kind of rating that measures a quarterback's overall performance with the ball, not just as a passer when he actually releases the ball (which is all that passer rating currently measures)." Perfect, seeing as I want to compare last year, when the team went to the Super Bowl, to this year 2 years of data is great. Along with that I wanted to check the defenses the Patriots have played over the first 10 weeks this year vs last year. For that I used a CHFF stat called Defensive Passer Rating (DPR), which means in a nutshell the QB rating a defense gives up.
Last year at this time Tom Brady had a RQBR of 95.58, ranking 3rd in the NFL. I took the DPR for each team the Patriots played against through week 10 of 2011 at the time the Pats played them. That is Miami's DPR week 1, San Diego's DPR week 2, etc. Last years opponents also included the Revis Island led New York Jets twice, the stout Steelers of last year, and the New York Football Giants. Those defenses averaged a DPR of 86.14. In other words, those Ds made opposing QBs look like the Matt Shaub of this year. That's the Matt Shaub with zero playoff wins on his resume and lives on a vicious D and the best running back in the game. And keep in mind that the DPR was measured just after the team played Brady and his 95.58 RQBR. Brady ended the year with a 99.35 RQBR as the team went on an 8-0 streak, against a string of horrible QBs by the way, to finish at 13-3 and go to the Super Bowl.
So what about this year? Brady is again 3rd in the NFL, this time with a RQBR of 96.15. And the defenses he's been up against? It may not seem like it but the opposing average DPR has been 88.77. That's only a 2% difference from the murders row of last year. They've faced just about the same schedule in terms of weekly difficulty and Brady has performed slightly better than a year ago. Pretty impressive I'd say considering Mankins has missed time on the offensive line and Aaron Hernandez has only played a game and a half. The remaining schedule this year is rather daunting. Current DPRs Indy 96.54, Jets 81.79, Miami 80.08 twice, Houston 71.65, 49ers 77.23, Jaguars 87.11. In Brady's favor going forward is he has been without the aforementioned Hernandez. That's the guy who was Brady's 3rd option last year with 79 catches for 910 yds and 7 TDs. He's been replaced this year by Brandon Lloyd, who in turn has replaced Deion Branch as the second WR behind Welker in terms of production. And then there is the running game. This year Steven Ridley has 814 yards, is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and has scored 6 TDs. Last year Green-Ellis was the lead back and went 667-3.7-11 for the full year. Add it all up and assuming Hernandez comes back soon, we can agree Lloyd is a better option than Branch, and the running game is approximately 40% better than last year, then Brady should have a better offense to attack those good defenses the last half of the year.
So what about the defense? That's a subject I'll tackle tomorrow when I'll be looking at this year's Patriots team vs Payton Manning's Super Bowl 2006 Colts team.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Monday, November 12, 2012
Napoli LaRoche Who Wins? Edition
With Buster Olney of ESPN tweeting about the Red Sox doing in-depth background on C/1B Mike Napoli I figured it was time to take a more detailed look at the over 30 club of free agents who could help the Red Sox at the old Mayors' haunting ground. Too bad neither of these guys would be the short money short time flyer that Sean Casey once was, but it's a Kevin Millar 'Got HEEEEEEM' world and we're all just living in it. There's a theme here people. Mike Stanley. Ok, enough of the short money 1B/C/DH flier types. Let's drill down some good old fashioned BaseballHQ stats.
Mike Napoli Age 31 GB% FB% HR/F% OBA HR OPS
2009 38 43 17 .341 17 .833
2010 38 42 19 .303 19 .771
2011 39 41 25 .412 30 1.044
2012 40 41 26 .333 24 .802
Adam LaRoche Age 33 GB% FB% HR/F% OBA HR OPS
2009 35 43 14 .357 25 .846
2010 38 44 15 .319 25 .787
2011 43 38 7 .290 3 .548
2012 34 44 17 .348 33 .858
For the uninitiated, GB% is % of batted balls hit on the ground, FB% is % of batted balls hit in the air, and HR/F% is % of fly balls that go for home runs (as opposed to cans of corn). I look at the past four years because frankly I find it the best baseline to consider with the current PED testing.
Mike Napoli does his damage with some big time power. His homers per fly are up there with the best in the game. Unfortunately this is not the type of player you want to extend yourself for if you are the Red Sox. He's no Adam Dunn, a high OBA-high HR/F type in his hey day. And even though it's ever so slight, his GB% trend is getting near the danger zone and one of the reasons his OBA of .412 in 2011 will never be seen again with consistent at bats. Also the ground balls are at the expense of the fly balls, thus the glitzy HR/F numbers aren't so glitzy in the long run. Yes he has a right handed swing that seems to fit Fenway, but Cody Ross's Fenway swing was good for an OBA of .326 last year. Despite his 22 home runs and smiling face that's not the way to conga around the bases buggs bunny style, which is what we want to get back to (that's right, Cody Ross is the, no offense meant ladies, girl who looks better by hanging around with not so good looking girls). And more unsettling is the noise he wants to stay at catcher despite not just defense minded Mike Scioscia not wanting him to catch very much but even the unconventional Ron Washington kept him at 1B/DH 40% of the time over the past two years. You can come up with percentages for anything, 14% of all people know that, but really Mike?
Then there is the interesting Mr. LaRoche. This guy was injured in 2011 but despite outside appearances is a much more consistent batter than the currently trumpeted Mike Napoli. His GB% is is more acceptable overall, and his OPS compares favorably with Napoli outside of 2011. This is a man who knows how to work the count more consistently and pop the ball out of the yard at a reasonable clip. He has a very acceptable FB% for a lumbering five hole hitter type, and while the HR/F% uptick in 2012 is slightly interesting, it isn't Melky Cabrera interesting. He's two years older than Napoli but these days 33 ain't that old. If the Washington Nationals don't take advantage of that special gooey feeling and sign this guy for a reasonable deal here's betting the Sox could do better with 3 or 4 years for LaRoche then 4 or 5 for Napoli.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Mike Napoli Age 31 GB% FB% HR/F% OBA HR OPS
2009 38 43 17 .341 17 .833
2010 38 42 19 .303 19 .771
2011 39 41 25 .412 30 1.044
2012 40 41 26 .333 24 .802
Adam LaRoche Age 33 GB% FB% HR/F% OBA HR OPS
2009 35 43 14 .357 25 .846
2010 38 44 15 .319 25 .787
2011 43 38 7 .290 3 .548
2012 34 44 17 .348 33 .858
For the uninitiated, GB% is % of batted balls hit on the ground, FB% is % of batted balls hit in the air, and HR/F% is % of fly balls that go for home runs (as opposed to cans of corn). I look at the past four years because frankly I find it the best baseline to consider with the current PED testing.
Mike Napoli does his damage with some big time power. His homers per fly are up there with the best in the game. Unfortunately this is not the type of player you want to extend yourself for if you are the Red Sox. He's no Adam Dunn, a high OBA-high HR/F type in his hey day. And even though it's ever so slight, his GB% trend is getting near the danger zone and one of the reasons his OBA of .412 in 2011 will never be seen again with consistent at bats. Also the ground balls are at the expense of the fly balls, thus the glitzy HR/F numbers aren't so glitzy in the long run. Yes he has a right handed swing that seems to fit Fenway, but Cody Ross's Fenway swing was good for an OBA of .326 last year. Despite his 22 home runs and smiling face that's not the way to conga around the bases buggs bunny style, which is what we want to get back to (that's right, Cody Ross is the, no offense meant ladies, girl who looks better by hanging around with not so good looking girls). And more unsettling is the noise he wants to stay at catcher despite not just defense minded Mike Scioscia not wanting him to catch very much but even the unconventional Ron Washington kept him at 1B/DH 40% of the time over the past two years. You can come up with percentages for anything, 14% of all people know that, but really Mike?
Then there is the interesting Mr. LaRoche. This guy was injured in 2011 but despite outside appearances is a much more consistent batter than the currently trumpeted Mike Napoli. His GB% is is more acceptable overall, and his OPS compares favorably with Napoli outside of 2011. This is a man who knows how to work the count more consistently and pop the ball out of the yard at a reasonable clip. He has a very acceptable FB% for a lumbering five hole hitter type, and while the HR/F% uptick in 2012 is slightly interesting, it isn't Melky Cabrera interesting. He's two years older than Napoli but these days 33 ain't that old. If the Washington Nationals don't take advantage of that special gooey feeling and sign this guy for a reasonable deal here's betting the Sox could do better with 3 or 4 years for LaRoche then 4 or 5 for Napoli.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Friday, November 9, 2012
Dewey, Raines, & The HOF Edition
In the spirit of our civic discourse and voting and such I thought I would devote some time to the Baseball HOF. I've been a bit swept up in the wave of local and semi national support for Dwight 'Dewey' Evans to be elected to the HOF by the veterans committee. I don't know, seems like simpler times when as a lad I could scream 'DEWEY DEWEY DEWEY' from the right field grandstands when he made a typical wonderful play. I wondered how he compared to Tim 'Rock' Raines, who is a current darling of the sabermetric crowd to be elected via regular vote. I like the stat WAR, or wins over replacement, as it takes into account hitting, baserunning and defense, so I've included that in my analysis. I will compare the average HOFer, Raines, and Dewey using stats I culled from baseball reference. I'll also throw in some of the major awards or league leading stats that the two players accumulated over their careers.
Yrs WAR R HR RBI BA OBP OPS
Avg HOF 18 65 1323 211 1213 .303 .376 .838
Raines 23 66.2 1571 170 980 .294 .385 .810
Career highlights: 7 time All Star, Top 5 in MVP voting 1, League Leader R 2, 2B 2, SB 4, BA 1, OBP 1
Dewey 20 62.8 1470 385 1384 .272 .370 .840
Career highlights: 3 time All Star, Top 5 in MVP voting 2, League Leader R 1, HR 1, OBP 1, OPS 2, 8 time Gold Glove winner.
Raine's .385 career OBP is what those who advocate for him today feel he has been under appreciated for. Some say he could be considered the second best leadoff man of all time behind Rickey Henderson. Dewey's bat has been under appreciated severely considering he stacks up quite well in R, HR, RBI, OBP and OPS. At least Raines has gotten the respect of staying on the active ballot. Dewey washed out on his third year eligible in 1999 receiving only 3.6% of the vote. Considering he is worthy of the average HOFer I'd say that's a travesty. Raines is a slightly, very slightly, better candidate, but both certainly deserve election. Lets get them there before too many steroid freaks start showing up on the ballot.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Yrs WAR R HR RBI BA OBP OPS
Avg HOF 18 65 1323 211 1213 .303 .376 .838
Raines 23 66.2 1571 170 980 .294 .385 .810
Career highlights: 7 time All Star, Top 5 in MVP voting 1, League Leader R 2, 2B 2, SB 4, BA 1, OBP 1
Dewey 20 62.8 1470 385 1384 .272 .370 .840
Career highlights: 3 time All Star, Top 5 in MVP voting 2, League Leader R 1, HR 1, OBP 1, OPS 2, 8 time Gold Glove winner.
Raine's .385 career OBP is what those who advocate for him today feel he has been under appreciated for. Some say he could be considered the second best leadoff man of all time behind Rickey Henderson. Dewey's bat has been under appreciated severely considering he stacks up quite well in R, HR, RBI, OBP and OPS. At least Raines has gotten the respect of staying on the active ballot. Dewey washed out on his third year eligible in 1999 receiving only 3.6% of the vote. Considering he is worthy of the average HOFer I'd say that's a travesty. Raines is a slightly, very slightly, better candidate, but both certainly deserve election. Lets get them there before too many steroid freaks start showing up on the ballot.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Red Sox Best Starter Trade Target Edition
While pondering the mysteries of the cosmos I found myself listening to Jim Callis of Baseball America discuss the Red Sox top 10 prospect list with Alex Speier of WEEI.com on his Minor Details podcast. It's over an hour long, but among the nuggets I gleaned were:
Brewers get: SS Jose Iglesias ($2.06 M 2013, arbitration controlled through 2017), SP prospect Allen Webster, Junichi Tazawa who could fill the gap in their bullpen left by K-Rod and just finished a great year in the Red Sox bullpen, and a Jerry Sands or Ryan Lavarnway type, someone with some power potential who would never be given the time here in Boston unless the team is aiming for one of the worst seasons in franchise history like last year.
Red Sox get: SP Yovani Gallardo and 2B Rickie Weeks.
The Brewers get a defensive wiz in Iglesias, move their big prospect Segura to second, and one of the most hyped starting pitcher prospects in the majors in Allen Webster who is famous for being included in the Red Sox-Dodgers deal of century. They could sell Webster to the fan base and Iglesias' fielding exploits will speak for themselves. Tazawa came in and was about the only reliable reliever for Bobby Valentine the last part of 2012. He is being pegged as a dominant reliever or good starter and is at or near the top of his trade value at this time. Some cost controlled power thrown in should sweeten the pot enough considering the Sox would be giving up two of their newly minted top 10 prospects. They would also get plenty of salary relief, maybe even enough to throw at Josh Hamilton's damaged reputation to tempt him to sign with them.
The Red Sox give from a position of strength, which amazingly is starting pitching prospects. I haven't even mentioned Ruby De La Rosa, who has some major league time with the Dodgers thus didn't end up on the prospect list. If he did he might've been #1, an extremely high ceiling 23 year old who was included with Webster in the big Dodgers Sox deal. They use some of that financial flexibility to pay Weeks top 10 starting second basemen money to be a super utility player and get Gallardo to join the top of the Red Sox rotation for years to come. The Sox could then go out and find a stop-gap shortstop (remember Alex Gonzalez?) to play until Bogaerts, who combined with the rangy Middlebrooks would be a solid left side of the infield, is ready and splurge on a bullpen arm or two. Oh yeah, and save money by not overpaying Anibal Sanchez.
As Queen so eloquently put it, is this the real life, is this just fantasy? Maybe they're not sour on Weeks and the fact that Prince Fielder and C.C. Sabathia decided to leave has no bearing on their ability to sign a high priced free agent in a compromising position such as Hamilton. But then again, maybe not. Pound those phones Cherington!
Until next time,
The SAHD
- The Red Sox have three very good starting pitchers in the top 5 or 6 from their system, including Matt Barnes, Henry Owens and Allen Webster. Owens is a tall lefty who Callis believes could be the best of the three, Webster has a lot of movement on his pitches and throws a plus slider, and Barnes has the best fastball and a plus curve.
- Jose Iglesias is ranked at #9 is the system and is considered elite defensively but almost a loss as a batter.
- Scouts believe that Will Middlebrooks has great range at third base and made Mike Aviles look better because Will the thrill could cover so much ground.
- The Red Sox have even more starting pitching depth that is outside the top 10 this year but has been in the top 10 prior years but dropped because of injury
- The #1 prospect Xander Bogaerts is only 20 years old and over the course of the interview was compared to Derek Jeter, Hanley Ramirez and Cal Ripken, has an incredible bat including plus power, his defense most likely in more than serviceable at shortstop, and will probably be ready to start in the majors in 2014.
Brewers get: SS Jose Iglesias ($2.06 M 2013, arbitration controlled through 2017), SP prospect Allen Webster, Junichi Tazawa who could fill the gap in their bullpen left by K-Rod and just finished a great year in the Red Sox bullpen, and a Jerry Sands or Ryan Lavarnway type, someone with some power potential who would never be given the time here in Boston unless the team is aiming for one of the worst seasons in franchise history like last year.
Red Sox get: SP Yovani Gallardo and 2B Rickie Weeks.
The Brewers get a defensive wiz in Iglesias, move their big prospect Segura to second, and one of the most hyped starting pitcher prospects in the majors in Allen Webster who is famous for being included in the Red Sox-Dodgers deal of century. They could sell Webster to the fan base and Iglesias' fielding exploits will speak for themselves. Tazawa came in and was about the only reliable reliever for Bobby Valentine the last part of 2012. He is being pegged as a dominant reliever or good starter and is at or near the top of his trade value at this time. Some cost controlled power thrown in should sweeten the pot enough considering the Sox would be giving up two of their newly minted top 10 prospects. They would also get plenty of salary relief, maybe even enough to throw at Josh Hamilton's damaged reputation to tempt him to sign with them.
The Red Sox give from a position of strength, which amazingly is starting pitching prospects. I haven't even mentioned Ruby De La Rosa, who has some major league time with the Dodgers thus didn't end up on the prospect list. If he did he might've been #1, an extremely high ceiling 23 year old who was included with Webster in the big Dodgers Sox deal. They use some of that financial flexibility to pay Weeks top 10 starting second basemen money to be a super utility player and get Gallardo to join the top of the Red Sox rotation for years to come. The Sox could then go out and find a stop-gap shortstop (remember Alex Gonzalez?) to play until Bogaerts, who combined with the rangy Middlebrooks would be a solid left side of the infield, is ready and splurge on a bullpen arm or two. Oh yeah, and save money by not overpaying Anibal Sanchez.
As Queen so eloquently put it, is this the real life, is this just fantasy? Maybe they're not sour on Weeks and the fact that Prince Fielder and C.C. Sabathia decided to leave has no bearing on their ability to sign a high priced free agent in a compromising position such as Hamilton. But then again, maybe not. Pound those phones Cherington!
Until next time,
The SAHD
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Boys Will Be Boys - The Boston Toronto Tango Edition
Just the other day we were breathlessly told that former Toronto coach Brian Butterfield, Pats fan extraordinaire and brilliant baseball mind, was being hired to become John Farrell's new third base coach for the local nine. Now it's being reported that Butterfield is a candidate to be the new manager back in Toronto. Is this the sandbox or The Show?! I thought Alex Anthopoulos was a new breed of GM, someone who's risen from the mail room to the boardroom surly takes their job seriously right? The petty and bumbling Haywood Sullivan's of the world are in the past, aren't they?
Alex are you feeling rejected and hurt by John Farrell's unrequited love for the Red Sox? Don't you know a 73-89 team needs to clean house? Do you really want to keep a whole bunch of staff around from last year, didn't you see how that worked out for Bobby Valentine?
On the other hand, how many more ways can the Red Sox and John Farrell stick it to Toronto? Not only did the Sox tank, they tanked so hard they actually have a better draft pick than Toronto in the upcoming draft. Farrell has admitted to wanting to get out of Toronto almost as soon as he got in, he's taken their heir apparent Torey Lovullo as his new bench coach, and now he's raiding their cupboard again with this Butterfield thing. What, is Farrell going to go up there and raze cottage country now?
The things that Patriots bye weeks, no NHL, MLB free agency not fully kicked off, and depressing thoughts of the Miami Heat marching to another NBA championship are made of.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Monday, October 29, 2012
Scott Baker SP - Great Gamble For Red Sox Edition
Slogging through the effects of hurricane Sandy here in the Boston area I was jolted to spring training mode getting the info that Scott Baker's 2013 option was declined by the Twins. This makes Mr. Baker a free agent. He will be 30 for the 2013 season and is coming off of Tommy John surgery in April of 2012, but I'm willing to put him under the microscope because of his affordability (due to TJS) and skill profile. Of course, the Twins still have time to negotiate with him before free agency opens but here's hoping that doesn't happen. Let's investigate using the same process I used to come up with Anibal Sanchez, Francisco Liriano and Carlos Villanueva earlier this week. Thanks again to baseball reference and Baseball HQ for the stats.
Innings K K/9 WHIP Ground Ball % Innings/Start
2007 144 102 6.4 1.329 35% 6.26
2008 172 141 7.4 1.178 33% 6.14
2009 200 162 7.3 1.190 33% 7.14
2010 170 148 7.8 1.344 36% 5.86
2011 135 123 8.2 1.173 34% 6.43
Baker has a lot going for him. His K/9, WHIP, and Innings/Start are all very attractive. He is a fly ball pitcher, but his K ability and WHIP show he keeps the ball in the park, and he can really shorten a bullpen. He's coming off injury, but 10-12 months is seen as the recovery time for TJS, and his recovery appears to be on track for spring training in 2013.
Add Mr. Baker to the group of three I mentioned earlier in the week as the best potential targets for the Red Sox. Again, non of these guys are a slam dunk. These are merely my choices as the best free agents available in a cost effective environment. Scott Baker might have a setback, then again he has the skills to win 15-20 games. Here's hoping the Orioles also do the Sox a solid and decide $11 M is too much for the perfect fit for the open 1B position Mark Reynolds.
Until next time,
The SAHD
P.S. Remember you heard these things here first. Saw Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe tweeting about Anibal Sanchez as a fit for the Red Sox during his Game 3 World Series start on 9/27. I gave a much deeper insight into why Sanchez would be a good fit 3 days earlier. I posted Tim Thomas should be traded for Alexander Semin on 2/12/12. Thomas didn't play after April 26 last year and is now sitting out this non existent NHL season and even Semin's inconsistent scoring would've been welcome in last year's playoffs. Just sayin's all.
Innings K K/9 WHIP Ground Ball % Innings/Start
2007 144 102 6.4 1.329 35% 6.26
2008 172 141 7.4 1.178 33% 6.14
2009 200 162 7.3 1.190 33% 7.14
2010 170 148 7.8 1.344 36% 5.86
2011 135 123 8.2 1.173 34% 6.43
Baker has a lot going for him. His K/9, WHIP, and Innings/Start are all very attractive. He is a fly ball pitcher, but his K ability and WHIP show he keeps the ball in the park, and he can really shorten a bullpen. He's coming off injury, but 10-12 months is seen as the recovery time for TJS, and his recovery appears to be on track for spring training in 2013.
Add Mr. Baker to the group of three I mentioned earlier in the week as the best potential targets for the Red Sox. Again, non of these guys are a slam dunk. These are merely my choices as the best free agents available in a cost effective environment. Scott Baker might have a setback, then again he has the skills to win 15-20 games. Here's hoping the Orioles also do the Sox a solid and decide $11 M is too much for the perfect fit for the open 1B position Mark Reynolds.
Until next time,
The SAHD
P.S. Remember you heard these things here first. Saw Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe tweeting about Anibal Sanchez as a fit for the Red Sox during his Game 3 World Series start on 9/27. I gave a much deeper insight into why Sanchez would be a good fit 3 days earlier. I posted Tim Thomas should be traded for Alexander Semin on 2/12/12. Thomas didn't play after April 26 last year and is now sitting out this non existent NHL season and even Semin's inconsistent scoring would've been welcome in last year's playoffs. Just sayin's all.
Friday, October 26, 2012
Red Sox FA 1B, SS, OF Targets Edition
Having looked through some starting pitcher targets earlier in the week I've decided to tackle the Red Sox positional needs. I'm very much in favor of a return to 2003 style of free agency, trying to find a diamond in the rough, so I decided to see if there was anyone close to David Ortiz's Age 26 2002 or Jose Bautista's Age 29 2008 available to find. People want to get back to some of that grind it out baseball, taking some walks, pounding some homers, and keeping the players the Sox have drafted and developed. As such I'm looking at three stats: On Base Average (OBA), Home Runs HR, and On-Base + Slugging (OPS). These three stats can be harbingers of excellent hitters, so lets see how Papi and Joey Bats fared in the season just prior to their breakouts.
Ortiz .341 OBA 20 HR .841 OPS
Bautista .344 OBA 13 HR .752 OPS
Considering Ortiz was only 26 it's rather shocking now to see how cheaply the Red Sox got him in 2003. I don't believe with the way front office's are run these days a guy like this would become available again, but you never know. Bautista is interesting because he was considered old at 29. So those are the benchmarks I'm shooting for, and the positions the Red Sox need are 1B, SS (yes Iglesias is there but he can't hit a lick right now), and OF (Ellsbury, Cody Ross if he comes back, Ryan Kalish, Daniel Nava. Considering Ells is a big question along with the rest I'd say OF is a priority).
First Base
It's a thin market, Mike Napoli could play some first but he's 31 so too old for this study and probably will require too much cash with the power market so thin. There are two players that could be interesting however.
Mark Reynolds Age 29 .328 OBA 23 HR .757 OPS
The Orioles hold an $11 M option on Reynolds, or a $500 K buyout. There is a good possibility Reynolds could become available. He has averaged 35 HRs the previous 4 years and would be the most expensive of the players examined here if the Os let him go. Even so the Sox could find some value here if other teams think his glove, much improved at first base, is made to be a DH. The linked story from the Baltimore Sun above also shows he may even be learning to cut down on his record setting strikeouts.
Casey Kotchman Age 29
There are some trends worth looking into on this guy. I know we've seen his act here before but check out his last four years. OBA '12 .270 '11 .367 '10 .278 '09 .335 HR '12 12 '11 10 '10 9 '09 7 OPS '12 603 '11 789 '10 614 '09 717. Good years OBA and OPS '11, '09, slow rise in HR. We're going into an odd year in '13, he could put it all together and have a career year. It wouldn't be Papi or Bautista like but he could be Kevin Millar with a better glove. I'd take that for a cheap short term 1B option.
Short Stop
Ronny Cedeno Age 29 .328 OBA 4 HR 738 OPS
This guy looks like a washout but there are some interesting tidbits. He had his best offensive season in limited at bats last year and could be a very good option to spell or keep the seat warm for Jose Iglesias if he ever learns to hit. He started in Pittsburg for a couple of years and could surprise due to his age and small seeds of offense. Stephen Drew is also available this offseason at age 29 but will cost more and be no more reliable.
Outfield
Melky Cabrera Age 28 .394 OBA 11 HR .910 OPS
We know the numbers above are artificially produced, but age 26 he was .341 OBA 18 HR .810 OPS. Sure, he could've been juicing then too, but he's at a prime age and will most likely come cheap. That's what this study is all about.
It doesn't appear that there are any superstars lurking here on the surface but this is how the offseason was approached in 2002 for the Red Sox and what we're all hoping for this year. Trading away prospects seems like a bad idea, with the system just starting to reassert itself after trading the farm for Adrian Gonzalez after the 2010 season. This is a bad offseason for free agent spending, with some very questionable top talent. Keep the money and wait for a better free agent class and some prospects to mature in 2014.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Ortiz .341 OBA 20 HR .841 OPS
Bautista .344 OBA 13 HR .752 OPS
Considering Ortiz was only 26 it's rather shocking now to see how cheaply the Red Sox got him in 2003. I don't believe with the way front office's are run these days a guy like this would become available again, but you never know. Bautista is interesting because he was considered old at 29. So those are the benchmarks I'm shooting for, and the positions the Red Sox need are 1B, SS (yes Iglesias is there but he can't hit a lick right now), and OF (Ellsbury, Cody Ross if he comes back, Ryan Kalish, Daniel Nava. Considering Ells is a big question along with the rest I'd say OF is a priority).
First Base
It's a thin market, Mike Napoli could play some first but he's 31 so too old for this study and probably will require too much cash with the power market so thin. There are two players that could be interesting however.
Mark Reynolds Age 29 .328 OBA 23 HR .757 OPS
The Orioles hold an $11 M option on Reynolds, or a $500 K buyout. There is a good possibility Reynolds could become available. He has averaged 35 HRs the previous 4 years and would be the most expensive of the players examined here if the Os let him go. Even so the Sox could find some value here if other teams think his glove, much improved at first base, is made to be a DH. The linked story from the Baltimore Sun above also shows he may even be learning to cut down on his record setting strikeouts.
Casey Kotchman Age 29
There are some trends worth looking into on this guy. I know we've seen his act here before but check out his last four years. OBA '12 .270 '11 .367 '10 .278 '09 .335 HR '12 12 '11 10 '10 9 '09 7 OPS '12 603 '11 789 '10 614 '09 717. Good years OBA and OPS '11, '09, slow rise in HR. We're going into an odd year in '13, he could put it all together and have a career year. It wouldn't be Papi or Bautista like but he could be Kevin Millar with a better glove. I'd take that for a cheap short term 1B option.
Short Stop
Ronny Cedeno Age 29 .328 OBA 4 HR 738 OPS
This guy looks like a washout but there are some interesting tidbits. He had his best offensive season in limited at bats last year and could be a very good option to spell or keep the seat warm for Jose Iglesias if he ever learns to hit. He started in Pittsburg for a couple of years and could surprise due to his age and small seeds of offense. Stephen Drew is also available this offseason at age 29 but will cost more and be no more reliable.
Outfield
Melky Cabrera Age 28 .394 OBA 11 HR .910 OPS
We know the numbers above are artificially produced, but age 26 he was .341 OBA 18 HR .810 OPS. Sure, he could've been juicing then too, but he's at a prime age and will most likely come cheap. That's what this study is all about.
It doesn't appear that there are any superstars lurking here on the surface but this is how the offseason was approached in 2002 for the Red Sox and what we're all hoping for this year. Trading away prospects seems like a bad idea, with the system just starting to reassert itself after trading the farm for Adrian Gonzalez after the 2010 season. This is a bad offseason for free agent spending, with some very questionable top talent. Keep the money and wait for a better free agent class and some prospects to mature in 2014.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Belichick The Drafter - GM or Dunce Edition
I am perplexed and concerned about the Patriots multiple one and done playoff performances lately and inability to beat the Giants in the Super Bowl. However, I need some silver linings lately so I've decided to tackle the notion I've been hearing for a few years that Belichick the GM isn't nearly as good as Belichick the head coach. This is a result of what appears to be a woeful pass defense and all the draft capital spent on that part of the team that has resulted in ruin. Well, (viewer discretion is advised) allow me to retort!
I looked at the drafts from 2009 (Scott Pioli left for Kansas City on 1/13/09) through this year. I'll go through the first and second round picks with some cherries picked from the later rounds.
2009: 2nd Round - Pat Chung DB a serviceable safety, inconsistent.
Ron Brace DT starting runstopper on the D line, could be part of
the reason Willfork has stepped it up in the last few years.
Darius Butler DB is draft bust spelled D A R I U S?
Sebastian Vollmer T a starter on the O line when he's healthy
7th Round - Julian Edelman WR gets the job done and considering he's a
7th rounder seems like a great pick.
2010: 1st Round - Devin McCourty DB great his rookie year, lost last year, somehow
just won the special teams player of the week despite almost
fumbling the game away.
2nd Round - Gronk TE an absolute steal.
Jermaine Cunningham LB solid starter
Brandon Spikes LB good linebacker who is one of the fiercest
hitters in the league
4th Round - Aaron Hernandez TE another steal
5th Round - Zoltan Mesko P sure Belichick expended a 5th round pick on a punter,
but he's an outstanding punter.
2011: 1st Round - Nate Solder T starter on the offensive line
2nd Round - Ras-I Dowling DB perhaps draft bust spelled R A S I
Shane Vereen RB just beginning to get his feet wet
3rd Round - Steven Ridley RB if he gets his fumbles under control potential for
greatness
4th Round - Ryan Mallet QB mythical backup QB
2012: 1st Round - Chandler Jones DE flashes of awesomeness, rookie ups and down
Dont'A Hightower LB see Chandler Jones
2nd Round - Tavon Wilson S despite getting burned now and then does have two
interceptions and two fumble recoveries. Not bad.
By my count that's two incredible steals in Gronk and Hernandez, two offensive line starters in Vollmer and Solder, a two mercurial but talented DBs in McCourty and Chung, a late round offensive piece in Edelman, a good to great running back in Ridley in the 3rd round, and one of the best punters in the league in Mesko. Sure there's a couple of 2nd round busts in Dowling and Butler, but there's a lot more to like than not. So come on, let's lay off the GM Bill Belichick. He's given coach Belichick some good to great players. If only coach Belichick could get Tom Brady to win that parking space again.
Until next time,
The SAHD
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