Pats D - 4% over Glass Joe is Von Kaiser Edition

Last week I mentioned how necessary is was for New England to improve its pass defense.  Let's see an update on the questions I posed:

1. Is Aqib Talib the answer? Hey, I'll take a DB who grabs an interception and returns it to the house everyday and twice on Sundays. He didn't look great those first couple of series,and Zolak mentioned on the air how much help he had over the top from safeties. But he did help to hold Reggie Wayne to his worst game of the year, so after week 1 the answer is possibly.  A lot better than no.
2. Will Jones and Hightower get better or break down?  The bad news, Jones suffered an ankle injury that may require some missed time.  Looks like a break down to me. The good news in Hightower looked active and blocked a pass to be part of a 3 and out.  This particular series was critical as it helped to shatter Indy's hopes and dreams of a shootout.  Jones' pass rush is a critical part of the pass defense, if he is down for any length of time it could be an issue.  After 1 week this answer is incomplete.
3. Will the tackling improve?  I watched in horror as the Indy ground game gained huge chunks of yards in the first quarter as tacklers did their best Goofy on roller skates impression.  But they tightened it up the rest of the game.  Will give them a yes.

However, let's delve into the frigid reality of fact.  Last week I mentioned the importance of improving their Defensive Passer Rating (DPR), from Cold Hard Football Facts.  I used DPR as I was comparing numbers from the 2006 Colts.  Since then the resident trolls have conjured the Real Quarterback Rating, or RQBR, which I mentioned when illustrating how Brady is perhaps even better this year than he was last.  Well of course the mighty CHFF created the inevitable opposite, the Defensive Real Quarterback Rating (DRQBR), so now that I'm comparing this year's team against itself week to week I'll be using that.  From the CHFF website:

"About Defensive Real Quarterback Rating. We introduced Real Quarterback Rating and Defensive Real Quarterback Rating before the 2011 season as a way to quantify all aspect of QB play. It's been a TOTAL score behind your wildest dreams. Teams better in Real QB Rating in 2011 went an incredible 223-33 (.871), proving that winning in the NFL is almost always about more efficient play at the QB position. -SNIP- Real Defensive Quarterback Rating measures how opposing quarterbacks perform against a given team not just passing, but also rushing. It also takes into account fumbles, rushes, rushing yards and sack stats to produce a new kind of rating that measures an opposing quarterback's overall performance with the ball, not just as a passer when he actually releases the ball (which is all that passer rating currently measures)."

After week 11 the Pats DRQBR was at a mediocre 22nd ranked score of 85.54.  After the Colts game they are now in the exceptionally ordinary position of 18th in the league at 81.82.  Hey, it's an 4% improvement. Baby steps to the quarterback, baby steps to tight coverage, baby steps to making a tackle.  4% is better than nothing.  Then again right now the Patriots D is cooked spinach on my kids plate.  4% better than 'NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO I WILL NEVER EAT THIS!' is this far from total crap. So what about the competition?

With identical 6-3 records coming into this game the teams seemed somewhat evenly matched, with ballyhooed rookie QB Andrew Luck supposedly presenting a challenge to the pass defense.  The general consensus, as seen in this Peter King piece, was that Luck would have a good day as long as he did't turn it over.  We all know what happened. A couple of pick 6s will ruin anyone's day.  The truth is Indy was a poor passing offense. After Week 11 Luck and Co had a RQBR score of 76.02, good for 22nd in the NFL.  After playing the Patriots there are now at 73.63 and stand 24th.  In other words the Indy passing offense is worse than another Family Guy time machine episode.

The Pats gave us a little sniff, a few pills pushed across the table instead of a full bottle. The pass defense is improving.  Talib talked about getting comfortable and I'm optimistic he will improve.  Even with Jones out Ninkovich picked up the pressure on the passer. Unfortunately they face the Jets this week, they of the 29th ranked RQBR score of 65.52. The Colts will look like Soda Popinski compared to the Glass Joe Jets on Thanksgiving night.  Let's hope they can show incremental improvement again until the real tests in Weeks 14 and 15 against the Texans and 49ers.

Until next time,

The SAHD