As Rob Bradford writes Big Papi opined that the Sox 'need some thunder in that lineup' on WEEI's Hot Stove. As usual Papi put the focus on his self importance, but his point is somewhat valid. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say by thunder he means homers and on base ability. I am convinced we all got so spoiled by those 4 hour games of guys working the count over and over that watching Daisuke 'I have a million free private flights in my contract, I've got time' Matsuzaka pitch pushed us all over the edge and we took our eyes off the ball. We started listening to the media complain about late nights, to Francona and Gonzalez whine about the schedule, and to our own desire to get an extra hour back in our lives. Is it about winning, or is it about comfort? Tell us Charlie.
A couple of weeks ago I looked into the battle between Mike Napoli and Adam LaRoche. End result, LaRoche in a close but clear win. Now it appears the Nats have chosen Denard Span over LaRoche and Davey Johnson is trying an end around at his golf tournament to get LaRoche back. There's also chatter about the Nats going after Greinke, the best starting pitcher in the market. As a Sox fan I hope the Nats drive dump trucks full of money up to Greinke's house and leave LaRoche for the picking. This would be good for both the Sox and the Nats, whose fanbase just got Soxified in last year's playoffs and I feel a real connection to them. It is a universal fact, nothing brings people together like sports misery and heartbreak. Despite yesterdays rumor that the Sox were after Napoli, Cody Ross, and Nick Swisher it seems fairly clear now what the best path could be, assuming contracts don't get insane. The Sox already signed the right handed hitting, lefty pitching mashing, good clubhouse presence guy Johnny Gomes. I'm forced to pause and point out they gave this guy two years at $5 Million per. Time to talk to myself "It's ok SAHD, it's just a part time player getting big money for a short time, short term contracts, short term contracts, dooo dooo doo dooo doo dooo dooo." Cody Ross, you position has been filled. Now if they can grab LaRoche, Swisher appears to be next. What about the Swishmeister? The old Baseball HQ treatment:
Nick Swisher Age 31 GB% FB% HR/F% OBA HR OPS
2009 38 46 17 .371 29 .869
2010 36 45 15 .354 29 .865
2011 39 39 14 .374 23 .822
2012 39 39 15 .363 24 .836
There is more consistency in Swisher's game than either LaRoche or Napoli, but troubling signs as well. The fly ball decline with a ground ball increase is ominous. Thankfully his on base skills are intact and perhaps his fly ball swing will come back with the Green Monstah to shoot for. He's a switch hitter which would help to even out the lineup, and another clubhouse guy in the mold of Millar. Seems promising, but lets feed these guys into the baseball reference WAR machine from 2009-2012:
Name: Swisher LaRoche Napoli Ross
Age/WAR 28/1.7 29/2.2 27/2.7 28/2.2
29/3.4 30/0.9 28/1.7 29/1.6
30/1.5 31/-.3 29/5.3 30/-.1
31/3.5 32/4.0 30/1.4 31/1.6
This adds a little context to the stats, as witnessed in my argument to sign B.J. Upton instead of Josh Hamilton if a big money deal had to be made. A 3.0 or better is a solid everyday player, and as you can see there isn't a totally solid one among them. Swisher comes the closest which is why he'll get the most money and why, despite my reservations about his power going forward, I would support the Sox inking him. As for Napoli and LaRoche, I believe LaRoche's 2010-2011 seasons were marred by injury and being traded around like a Greg Jeffries' Score rookie card in Mr. Smith's homeroom in 1989. His 4.0 WAR last year is supported by solid underlying skills of power, on base, and defense at first although that is only a small part. Napoli's 5.3 in 2011 was driven by an unsustainable .412 on base thanks to raising ground balls and falling fly balls. As for Ross, well even among this motley crew he doesn't quite make it. Total 4 year WAR: Swisher 10.1, LaRoche 6.8, Napoli 11.1, Ross 5.3.
All that being said I would still sign up for Hamilton for three years. Too bad that's more of a LSD trip than Woodstock. They head to the General Manger's meetings in Nashville next week and if a GM can feel comfortable with 3 years you better believe there's another who will put up 5. If the haul is Swisher, LaRoche, and a Carlos Villanueva or Francisco Liriano for the rotation I'll be happy. And maybe, just maybe, they can do a deal for a good to great starter centered around Allen Webster.
Until next time,
The SAHD
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