With Buster Olney of ESPN tweeting about the Red Sox doing in-depth background on C/1B Mike Napoli I figured it was time to take a more detailed look at the over 30 club of free agents who could help the Red Sox at the old Mayors' haunting ground. Too bad neither of these guys would be the short money short time flyer that Sean Casey once was, but it's a Kevin Millar 'Got HEEEEEEM' world and we're all just living in it. There's a theme here people. Mike Stanley. Ok, enough of the short money 1B/C/DH flier types. Let's drill down some good old fashioned BaseballHQ stats.
Mike Napoli Age 31 GB% FB% HR/F% OBA HR OPS
2009 38 43 17 .341 17 .833
2010 38 42 19 .303 19 .771
2011 39 41 25 .412 30 1.044
2012 40 41 26 .333 24 .802
Adam LaRoche Age 33 GB% FB% HR/F% OBA HR OPS
2009 35 43 14 .357 25 .846
2010 38 44 15 .319 25 .787
2011 43 38 7 .290 3 .548
2012 34 44 17 .348 33 .858
For the uninitiated, GB% is % of batted balls hit on the ground, FB% is % of batted balls hit in the air, and HR/F% is % of fly balls that go for home runs (as opposed to cans of corn). I look at the past four years because frankly I find it the best baseline to consider with the current PED testing.
Mike Napoli does his damage with some big time power. His homers per fly are up there with the best in the game. Unfortunately this is not the type of player you want to extend yourself for if you are the Red Sox. He's no Adam Dunn, a high OBA-high HR/F type in his hey day. And even though it's ever so slight, his GB% trend is getting near the danger zone and one of the reasons his OBA of .412 in 2011 will never be seen again with consistent at bats. Also the ground balls are at the expense of the fly balls, thus the glitzy HR/F numbers aren't so glitzy in the long run. Yes he has a right handed swing that seems to fit Fenway, but Cody Ross's Fenway swing was good for an OBA of .326 last year. Despite his 22 home runs and smiling face that's not the way to conga around the bases buggs bunny style, which is what we want to get back to (that's right, Cody Ross is the, no offense meant ladies, girl who looks better by hanging around with not so good looking girls). And more unsettling is the noise he wants to stay at catcher despite not just defense minded Mike Scioscia not wanting him to catch very much but even the unconventional Ron Washington kept him at 1B/DH 40% of the time over the past two years. You can come up with percentages for anything, 14% of all people know that, but really Mike?
Then there is the interesting Mr. LaRoche. This guy was injured in 2011 but despite outside appearances is a much more consistent batter than the currently trumpeted Mike Napoli. His GB% is is more acceptable overall, and his OPS compares favorably with Napoli outside of 2011. This is a man who knows how to work the count more consistently and pop the ball out of the yard at a reasonable clip. He has a very acceptable FB% for a lumbering five hole hitter type, and while the HR/F% uptick in 2012 is slightly interesting, it isn't Melky Cabrera interesting. He's two years older than Napoli but these days 33 ain't that old. If the Washington Nationals don't take advantage of that special gooey feeling and sign this guy for a reasonable deal here's betting the Sox could do better with 3 or 4 years for LaRoche then 4 or 5 for Napoli.
Until next time,
The SAHD
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