Friday, April 27, 2012

Will Bobby V Get Any Credit? Edition

This Blog has been reminded recently why he listens to all the over the top, rehashed and regurgitated, circular argument style of proclamation pilfered over the airwaves of sports radio in Boston: Interviews.

Have to hand it to Ordway, he still gives a great interview.  The fact he got Bobby V to disclose he was probably going to sit the hot hitting former 4th outfielder Ryan Sweeney because the team was facing a lefty that night when the team was facing right handed Australian Liam Hendriks was as fascinating as Tom Riddle discussing dark magic with Professor Slughorn.

Then today, Felger & Mazz had Peter Gammons on.  To paraphrase, Gammons thinks it could be an awful sign that Bobby V, with all the work the front office puts into providing information to the manager, staff and players, would not know the handedness of the starting pitcher the team would be facing that night.  It may be blasphemy around here, but this Blog things Gammons lost his fastball a long time ago.  The guy still knows the Red Sox though and hearing this put a chill down the spine.

This all provided depth and context to a thought about Bobby V.  In Sox Nation this new manager will not get any credit until this team goes deep in the playoffs.  Not a first round and out, not winning a round, most likely getting to the ALCS or bust credit wise.  The team just won four in a row.  Most media types and fans stock that up to 'Well, it's just Minnesota and Chicago and Oakland coming up, they should be winning those games.'  If the Sox go have the best record in the league from now until the end of August it will be the same.  If the team makes the playoffs it will be the same.  This talented team should be winning.  Come to think of it, Bobby V may go creditless unless he wins the whole bloody thing.  That's Boston Sports expectations these days, can't say it's a bad thing.

Until next time,

The SAHD


Monday, April 16, 2012

Bobby V vs. Youk Edition

It's not the first time and it certainly won't be the last, but Bobby V chose a post-game interview after the first three game winning streak on the season to disparage Kevin Youkilis.  Youk certainly has the aura of a six-month old at times, throwing fits about called third strikes and complaining about a fan-base that chants his name in every stadium he visits, but questioning his effort?  Via The Boston Globe's Pete Abraham via channel 7s Sports Xtra show on Sunday night:

      "I don't think he's as physically or emotionally into the game
      as he has been in the past for some reason. But [on Saturday]
      it seemed, you know, he's seeing the ball well, got those two 
      walks, got his on-base percentage up higher than his batting 
      average, which is always a good thing, and he'll move on from there."

On the one hand, it's 21 words, not the biggest deal.  On the other, this Red Sox team has just crushed one of their fiercest rivals for a three game winning streak.  The buzz going around the radio dial is this is Bobby V getting back at Youk because he thinks Youk aired the dirty laundry to the ubiquitous Curt Schilling about clubhouse issues in spring training.  This takes the life is high school theory to the extreme.  A little positive energy around the team would be nice.

A final on the other hand.  Youkilis' games played by year starting in 2006: 147, 145, 145, 136, 102, 120.  That's a clear downward trend the last three years.  Some of the injuries could be called fluky, maybe Bobby V sees that as Youk not being as engaged as he should, pampered, appearing to go all out on the field but not putting in the work off the field leading to some of those injuries.  Let's see how the team performs today, with Youk on the bench and Pedroia steadfastly standing by his man and telling the manager how things are done around here.

Until next time,

The SAHD


*****UPDATE***** Team looses 1-0, what a shocker.  Silver lining: despite 7BB Bard pitches good to great 6.2 IP 4H 1R 7BB 7K  Very silver lining, not many can go 7BB in 6.2 I and give up only 1 run, excited for what's to come.

Friday, April 13, 2012

Giving In To The Real Inner Sox Fan Edition

Ok Sox fans, this is a biggie.  This Blog is finding too much bile remaining from September of 2011 in his Sox loving sycophantic heart, it can be denied no longer.

Josh Beckett, save us.  Yes, that is the state of things.  Josh....Beckett.  How could this happen? Even Papelbon's megga contract with the Phightin Phillies seems reasonable now.  This feels like when one breaks up with a significant other because one feels he/she could do better, would be better off without them, but instead one's social scene becomes a barren wasteland and you see the one you left behind laughing in the distance with some good looking so and so and you regret. The Red Sox have again induced regret in Sox Nation.  This Blog predicted the team will skip and hop to a playoff looking team by the end of May.  Still possible, so why does a win today seem so desperate?

Human nature.  Please Sox, save us from ourselves.  David Price casts a large shadow, be like the mostly naked dudes in that horrible '300' movie and fight in the shade. (It's pitiful what the Red Sox can do to a bloke, no witty remarks to be found.)

Until next time,

The SAHD

Monday, April 9, 2012

Is It (Curt)ains For The Sox? Edition

Turns out Schilling's Titanic reference was more apt then originally mocked in this space.  Jon Lester and pray for rain, rain, rain and rain?  All closers are posers?  Youk benched for Punto? Bobby V doing radio in NYC?

Ok, this Blog lived through the summer of 1998 with only the Yankees games available on radio from his home in Worcester MA and no TV.  That team started off 0-3, and then gave this mad baseball loving Blog grey hair by winning 114 of their final 159 games and cruising to the 1998 World Series title.  There were shouts of joy from that small Worcester abode for less than a week in April, then groans of agony again and again as Jeter, O'Neil and Co laid waste to the rest of the MLB.

Does this Red Sox team have a little 1998 Yanks in them?  No way, but judging from the Yankees' performance against the Rays this past weekend they don't either.  Here's one more useless prediction that the Yankees will finally get old this year.  So whither the Red Sox of 2012?

Let's not forget that the road to the playoffs is the easiest its ever been.  Traditionalist vs. new wave baseball argument aside, this is a very good thing for the Sox.  A check of the playoff hopefuls: The AL West has the reloaded Angels and last year's AL Champion Rangers.  The AL Central has the wiping the Red Sox all over the field Tigers and little else.  There are 5 playoff spots available, giving 3 to the teams above and 1 to the young and vigorous Tampa Bay Rays still leaves 1 for the Sox and Yanks to fight over.  And that's assuming the Rays can continue to look like the class of the division, which is no sure thing considering the youth in their starting pitching and depending on Farnsworth, Rodney and company in that bullpen.  Yes, it's shocking, this Blog is predicting the waters will calm and the Sox will smoothly be sailing into playoff position by the end of May. The rotation and bullpen can't be that bad really, right?  Right?

Until Next Time,

The SAHD


Thursday, April 5, 2012

One Last Heartbreak Before 1st Pitch Edition

ESPN just gave Sox fans (and Braves fans for that matter) one last jolt of being ripped in half before the local 9 face off against the flying Verlanders.  This Blog must compose itself and not get too upset if Mr. 100mph in the 9th inning takes it to the boys today.

It's opening day, one of the greatest days in the year and all about a fresh new thing.  No true closer?  Who cares!  Questions in the pitching staff?  So what!  Curt Schilling taking shot after shot?  Pound sand!

The smell of hot dogs and fresh cut grass abounds, the grand old game is back in business, en-robe yourselves in Sox gear everyone first pitch in 7 minutes!

Until next time,

The SAHD

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

2nd Guessing Bobby V's Closer Choice Edition

This Blog has finally gotten to the point of second guessing Bobby V.  Wanted to wait at least until real games started but this closer decision has done the trick.  Alfredo Aceves gets the nod to begin with over Mark Melancon.  Is Aceves not the best option to spot start should Beckett's thumb hurt more or his finger get a blister or he step off the curb and tweak his hammy?  Yes, Beckett is fragile, you get it already.  Aceves also proved money last year in innings 4, 5, 6, and 7. Yesterday Melancon was studied.  The numbers will be crunched into three year averages and let's see these two gents side to side:

                        Aceves                       Melancon
Innings               210                             112
ERA                  3.00                            3.20
WHIP               1.06                             1.25
BB/9                 2.65                            3.45
K/9                    6.5                               8.0
W                      24                                8
L                         4                                 4
SV                      4                                20

Aceves's wins and innings speak to his role being much more of a spot starter and long reliever, although having a 24-4 record over the last three years is pretty darned impressive.  Aceves has better control (less walks and lower WHIP), Melancon is that much more dominant (striking out 1.5 more batters per 9 innings).  No doubt, Aceves is a very good pitcher.  This Blog's point is just as much about Melancon's potential as it is about the value of Aceves in just about every other point in the game except the 9th inning.  A couple more data points to bring it home.  Per BaseballHQ.com Aceves has a three year Ground Ball % (% of ball put in play against him) of 39%.  His Fly Ball % is 45%.  By contrast, Melancon's three year Groud Ball % is 56% with a Fly Ball % of 24%.  Melancon allows a little more than 20% less fly balls and induces 17% more ground balls.  Melancon is in the top tier of major leaguers with that 56% Ground Ball %, much more the profile of a dominant pitcher than Aceves.  The guess here is Aceves will blow a couple games and Melancon will be in the closer's role by May. Beyond that we'll see how Melancon handles the pressure.

Until next time,

The SAHD

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Fill In Red Sox Closer Edition

The opposite of Han Solo's brohug with Chewy comes to mind.

On the heels of the Andrew Bailey thumb injury news comes the what in the Sam Hill is going on with Josh Beckett's thumb now news.  Yes, as this Blog writes Beckett is on his way to Cleveland to meet up with Bailey in the waiting room of hand specialist Dr. Robert Graham.  Thumbs? Thumbs?  Really?  And I know Drew Carey sang about Cleveland Rocking and all, but Cleveland as a mecca for medical care doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

With that said, is the Red Sox sky falling?  This Blog has already written about Daniel Bard being the equal or better than C.J. Wilson as a starter (spring training numbers don't count, can't Bard get a real start or two before we judge him please?), and the lineup should still be one of the tops in the majors.  Starting Pitching depth is key to be sure, but the first under the microscope is assumed fill-in closer Mark Melancon.  Small sample sizes caveat, here are some trends from the last three years from baseballreference.com.

                           Innings    ERA   WHIP   K/9  BB/9 W  L  SV
2009 NYY            16.1       3.86     1.408   5.5    5.5    0   1   0
2010 NYY/HOU    21.1       4.22     1.266   9.3    3.4    2   0   0
2011 HOU            74.1       2.78     1.224   8.0    3.1    8   4   20

As a rookie with the Yankees in 2009 he got his feet wet, started to figure it out over his brief time in 2010, and really put things together in 2011.  His stuff appears to be pretty good, getting a lot of strikeouts with those K/9 rates, and just as encouraging are the declining BB/9 and WHIP trends. Of course the guy did most of his good work in the National League, and got rocked in the 2 games he pitched in the American League in 2010. The outlook is decent, a little bit to write home about, and he is entering the sweetspot for pitchers, his age 27 season.  Looks to this Blog like this is a reasonable stop gap with a chance to be solid major league closer.   From this rose colored glasses wearing Sox fan that's not exactly a ringing endorsement.  We'll see what he does when Fenway is rocking in the bottom of the 9th with Robinson Cano strolling to the plate with two outs and a batter at second.

Until next time,

The SAHD