Several weeks ago I began my weekly inspection of the Patriots pass defense with a comparison to the 2006 Colts as a blueprint. That team ended the season with #19th ranked pass defense, and I posited for this Patriots team to have a chance to win the Super Bowl they would have to improve weekly as they were in the bottom third of the league in Cold Hard Football Facts' proprietary Defensive Real Quarterback Rating (DRQBR). The Patriots offense is still humming along at #2 in the CHFF's own Real Quarterback Rating (RQBR). How's the defense doing?
Moving up in the rankings has been slow going since the Patriots were facing such patsies from week 11 through now(rankings at the time the Patriots played them): Indianapolis - #22nd ranked RQBR, Jets - #29th ranked RQBR, Dolphins - #26th ranked RQBR. But Belichicks Bullies have had a slow and steady rise in the DRQBR since week 11, from 22nd 85.54 to a current standing of 16th 80.11. In short, the Pats took care of business, which is more of an accomplishment than the current media would have you believe in this Any Given Sunday NFL.
This week begins the two biggest games of the season. Houston's #7th ranked 88.52 RQBR & San Francisco's #4 ranked 93.78. Despite the Alex Smith drama the facts remains that San Fran has maintained its ranking from #5 the week Kaepernick took over to #4 now. While Paul Perillo of patriots.com or Felger & Mazz continue to see this team as too flawed or lucky, the Patriots have looked promising over the past few weeks and continue to improve their pass defense. Houston and San Francisco present significant challenges to this pass d and if the Patriots hold them down it portends very well for the playoffs.
As for individuals I've been tracking Aquib Talib isn't standing out, nor is Dont'a Hightower, but even the smell test says this defense is getting better. As for Chandler Jones there was more hard hitting observation of him attending the team walkthrough yesterday. I'm not beating on the reporting per say, they only get what the Patriots give them, but again I plead for a little private investigator hiring. Help the economy and get better stories, who looses?!
Remember folks, this is an improving pass defense. Even if Houston wins on Monday the tell for the playoffs will be how the opposing QB looks. If Foster and Co run all day and Shaub doesn't do much that's a great sign win or loose.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Monday, December 3, 2012
Red Sox Winter Meetings White Whale Edition
It was Herman Melville who penned:
"There is one knows not what sweet mystery about this sea, whose gently awful stirrings seem to speak of some hidden soul beneath. "
Well Herman for me it is not the sea that is that sweet mystery, it is my own White Whale, an Ace starting pitcher for my beloved Red Sox. And what Ace has been bandied about by such baseball reporting luminaries as Buster Olney? David Taylor Price of those plucky Tampa Bay Rays. Yes, that David Price, who will soon be pitching in his age 27 season and the reigning AL Cy Young award winner. He is at the pinnacle of his trade value, but he is also the rarest of possibilities, an undeniable Ace available at the beginning of his peak. Price is not nearly the postseason hero Josh Beckett was when he was traded to the Red Sox, but how does he compare to the last big trade made by the Sox for a starter? Let's see what baseball reference and Baseball HQ have to say about the 4 years prior to a trade or potential trade:
David Price Josh Beckett
GB% Trend 41-44-44-53 37-47-45-43
K/9 Trend 7.2-8.1-8.7-8.7 9.4-9.6-8.7-8.4
WHIP Trend 1.35-1.19-1.14-1.10 1.27-1.32-1.22-1.18
K/BB Trend 1.89-2.38-3.46-3.47 2.57-2.71-2.81-2.86
Beckett stuck out more, but Price gets more groundballs, walks less, and strikes out almost as much. Price also has a clear upward trend, whereas Beckett was more of a rollercoaster. Price is the better pitcher.
Back in the day the Sox had to give up their #1 prospect, SS Hanley Ramirez, along with Anibal Sanchez, current best starter on the free agent market not named Zack Greinke, for Beckett. Once again the Red Sox top prospect is a Dominican shortstop, this time with a name out of a Tolkein novel, Xavier Bogaerts. And like some softly spoken spell whispered by Gandolph this prospect is accompanied by mysticism and wonder. Every Fenway fan knows the Sox have been a black hole at shortstop since the salad days of Nomar. We tend to get emotional about great looking young shortstops who can hit with power, but a cooler head such as Jim Callis from Baseball America told Alex Speier of WEEI that Bogaerts isn't quite Hanley Ramirez. Callis also detailed the Red Sox 10th best prospect, SS Deven Marrero, who is seen as a good defender with a solid bat and on base skills, so Bogaerts isn't the only hope beyond the no-hit Iglesias.
Back before PED testing and punishment was a total joke the Red Sox needed a one two punch of Manny and Papi along with a great rotation to compete Now more than ever it is starting pitching that matters, as witnessed by the 2012 San Francisco Giants, and a rotation anchored by Price, with Lester and Buccholz slotted down to the 2 and 3 spots, would be formidable. Combined with the lineup of Ellsbury and Pedroia and Papi it would be more than enough to compete for a World Series. I wouldn't trade starting pitching for a bat, and I wouldn't trade Bogaerts for anyone other than a true Ace, but Price is worth it. Bogaerts wouldn't be enough, more players would be involved, but as Olney wrote it would have to start there and I believe this should be Cherington's #1 priority this week at the MLB winter meetings.
Until next time,
The SAHD
"There is one knows not what sweet mystery about this sea, whose gently awful stirrings seem to speak of some hidden soul beneath. "
Well Herman for me it is not the sea that is that sweet mystery, it is my own White Whale, an Ace starting pitcher for my beloved Red Sox. And what Ace has been bandied about by such baseball reporting luminaries as Buster Olney? David Taylor Price of those plucky Tampa Bay Rays. Yes, that David Price, who will soon be pitching in his age 27 season and the reigning AL Cy Young award winner. He is at the pinnacle of his trade value, but he is also the rarest of possibilities, an undeniable Ace available at the beginning of his peak. Price is not nearly the postseason hero Josh Beckett was when he was traded to the Red Sox, but how does he compare to the last big trade made by the Sox for a starter? Let's see what baseball reference and Baseball HQ have to say about the 4 years prior to a trade or potential trade:
David Price Josh Beckett
GB% Trend 41-44-44-53 37-47-45-43
K/9 Trend 7.2-8.1-8.7-8.7 9.4-9.6-8.7-8.4
WHIP Trend 1.35-1.19-1.14-1.10 1.27-1.32-1.22-1.18
K/BB Trend 1.89-2.38-3.46-3.47 2.57-2.71-2.81-2.86
Beckett stuck out more, but Price gets more groundballs, walks less, and strikes out almost as much. Price also has a clear upward trend, whereas Beckett was more of a rollercoaster. Price is the better pitcher.
Back in the day the Sox had to give up their #1 prospect, SS Hanley Ramirez, along with Anibal Sanchez, current best starter on the free agent market not named Zack Greinke, for Beckett. Once again the Red Sox top prospect is a Dominican shortstop, this time with a name out of a Tolkein novel, Xavier Bogaerts. And like some softly spoken spell whispered by Gandolph this prospect is accompanied by mysticism and wonder. Every Fenway fan knows the Sox have been a black hole at shortstop since the salad days of Nomar. We tend to get emotional about great looking young shortstops who can hit with power, but a cooler head such as Jim Callis from Baseball America told Alex Speier of WEEI that Bogaerts isn't quite Hanley Ramirez. Callis also detailed the Red Sox 10th best prospect, SS Deven Marrero, who is seen as a good defender with a solid bat and on base skills, so Bogaerts isn't the only hope beyond the no-hit Iglesias.
Back before PED testing and punishment was a total joke the Red Sox needed a one two punch of Manny and Papi along with a great rotation to compete Now more than ever it is starting pitching that matters, as witnessed by the 2012 San Francisco Giants, and a rotation anchored by Price, with Lester and Buccholz slotted down to the 2 and 3 spots, would be formidable. Combined with the lineup of Ellsbury and Pedroia and Papi it would be more than enough to compete for a World Series. I wouldn't trade starting pitching for a bat, and I wouldn't trade Bogaerts for anyone other than a true Ace, but Price is worth it. Bogaerts wouldn't be enough, more players would be involved, but as Olney wrote it would have to start there and I believe this should be Cherington's #1 priority this week at the MLB winter meetings.
Until next time,
The SAHD
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