Yesterday, with the help of those glorious knights of football truth at Cold Hard Football Facts I took a look at how the Patriots offense, and Tom Brady in particular, has performed as well as or even better than last year despite missing some key weapons. Furthermore it was against a schedule that right now doesn't look so intimidating but at the time the teams locked horns actually compares quite well against the hard early schedule for the Pats last year. Today it's the defenses turn, and woe to the fan in me as the best cornerstone I could think of to begin my analysis was those pesky puke inducing Payton Manning led Colts of 2006. That was a team with an all time QB and shaky defense that put it together at the right time to win it all. What can the CHFF lay bare that has been heretofore shrouded in mystery? Here's the news: this team is in Barney.
I mentioned it yesterday, but I am again going to the Defensive Passer Rating (DPR). By the way I focus on the passing stats because this is a passing league, now more than ever. Anyone who watched Eli Manning carve up the Patriots through the air in the closing minutes of the Super Bowl, or sees that the last 9 Super Bowl champs have had Brady, Eli, Payton, Brees, Rogers, or Roethlisburger at QB, can see my point. As usual, a bow to the CHFF for wiping the dirt from my eyes on this subject. After week 10 of the 2006 season The Colts has a DPR of 84.40 which was bad, ranked 21st if the NFL at that time. They ended the season not much better with a mark of 82.57, good for 19th. That team had Freeney and Mathis rushing the passer and Bob Sanders doing his best Ronny Lott impression for the last part of the year and throughout the playoffs. Depressingly, currently the Patriots, with the hall of fame defensive game plan mastermind Bill Belichick running the show, have a horrifyingly awful DPR of 97.75. That is ranked 28th, ironically making every opposing QB look like Tom Brady on a good day. That is not good enough, and by that I mean Super Bowl good enough. I can't help myself, as much as I try to appreciate what we have here my expectations are outrageous, and unless this defense turns it around against the pass there will be no joy in Plainville.
In 2006 Payton Manning and the Colts offense finished the year ranked #1 in passer rating with a 100.95. Brady and Co. right are #3 at 96.15. The offense is good enough to carry a halfway decent pass defense to the promised land. Can the Patriots turn it around? Is Aqib Talib the answer? Will the young dynamic duo of Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower reach closer to their potential or wear down? Will the defensive backs and linebackers begin to be sure tacklers? If the braintrust at Patriots Place can get some affirmatives on those questions and push the pass defense to a remarkable improvement then we're good. More likely Bruce Campbell has the answer.
Until next time,
The SAHD
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