So there was a HUGE trade involving the AL East, in case you haven't heard. Medicals are still being worked out but fair to say this Toronto Boston playground battle plays on. Toronto gave up prospects and young players which I won't go into now, and in return they received SS Jose Reyes, Utility Infielder Emilio Bonifacio, SP Josh Johnson, SP Mark Buehrle and C John Buck. This was a smart move by the Jays, they have the money, the NHL is shut down currently, and they have packed the former Sky Dome to the gills in the past. A very impressive haul and with Johnson pitching for a contract, Buehrle eating innings, and Reyes topping a batting order with Jose Batista and Edwin Encarnacion they will most likely be a formidable team.
The risk to these players, however, is quite real, and if the reports of Middlebrooks, Bogaerts (the current Baseball America #1 prospect in the Sox system) and Dubront being asked for by the Marlins are real, much too steep a price to pay. Let's look at some past big named pitcher trades and compare their ages and WAR. Yes, there is WAR for pitchers too, Baseball Reference details it here. In a nutshell it takes into account level of competition, park factors, team defense, and like Kung Fu Joe a whole bunch of other things you ain't never heard of. I find it much more accurate than traditional measures like ERA and fairly comparable over time frames. My Red Sox passion was kindled at a very young age, and got battle tested going to college in central New York and having to defend myself against the legion of Yankee fans. You know, those Yankee fans of the mid to late 90s who compare so nicely with Patriot fans of today. A fond memory is my buddy The Bishop skipping through our apartment complex with a loud and boisterous proclamation 'WE GOT JACK BLACK, WE GOT JACK BLACK, WE GOT JACK BLACK!'. Black Jack McDowell, remember him? Cy Young runner up at age 26 and winner at age 27 for the White Sox in 1993, he was traded to the Yankees after his age 28 season to the Yankees for flotsam and jetsum and promptly fell off a cliff. Then there is the granddaddy of them all for Sox nation, the trade for the sublime, the predominant, The Ace of aces, Pedro Martinez after his age 25 season. Sitting in the stands, Fenway pulsing with every pitch, Dominican flags waving, transcendent performances, Joe Castiglione calling over the radio "this is the (insert insane number) time Pedro has struck out 10 or more in his Red Sox career". And now we have the aforementioned All Star Josh Johnson and workman like Buhrle, who's paid like an All Star. I'm going to compare WAR to Age up to trades and beyond in Pedro and McDowell's case (*denotes 1st year with new team):
Name: McDowell Pedro Johnson Buehrle
Age/WAR 24/1.2 22/2.2 22/3.0 28/5.9
25/4.1 23/4.5 23/-.6 29/4.2
26/4.9 24/3.8 24/1.9 30/5.0
27/4.1 25/8.7 25/6.4 31/3.6
28/3.5 26/6.9* 26/6.8 32/3.5
29/3.7* 27/9.5 27/2.8 33/3.2
30/1.1 28/11.4 28/3.1
As you can see the point is the mid twenties is the time you should trade big chips for a great pitcher. Buehrle and McDowell are comparable not only for their White Sox connection but somewhat equal primes. While Black Jack won with grit and determination Buehrle at his best won with almost no walks and excellent fielding. McDowell's downfall, and why the Yanks got him for so little, was walking too many batters and pitching 250+ innings from ages 25-27. Pedro was worth every bit of the at the time biggest contract ever given a pitcher (buying out his last year of arbitration) and cream of the Red Sox SP prospects (Carl Pavano & Tony Armas Jr.), as the Sox got his age 26-32 seasons. As you can see, Johnson was at his best at ages 25 and 26. He's now on his second year back from tommy john surgery but will be a free agent after this year and there's no guarantee you could sign him. He's not an all-time talent and you would be paying for a most likely good to great year but much more of an injury risk than Pedro ever was. As for Reyes and Bonafacio, Reyes is dynamic but has elevated injury risk of the type which rob a speed player of his dynamical abilities and makes huge money and Bonafacio has a career .329 OBP. The Sox just went through trading for and/or signing big money players in their near end of primes. Did we really want to go through that again?
Listening to both WEEI and The Sports Hub yesterday afternoon there was a lot of support for a huge money deal for three years for Josh Hamilton. Former MVP and personal problem time bomb, Hamilton is the biggest name on the free agent market. But while I'd rather the Sox not spend big money on a free agent positional player, thus my advocacy for a return to the off seasons of 2002/2003, I have a better option: B.J. Upton. Yes that loafing mercurial talent. Lets compare these two using the WAR for positional players:
Name Hamilton Upton
Age/WAR 27/5.2 23/3.1
28/0.4 24/0.8
29/8.4 25/1.0
30/3.5 26/2.8
31/3.4 27/2.6
For positional players, 8+ WAR scores are MVP seasons, 5+ are All Star level, and 3+ is starter level. Hamilton is high caliber starting material, but despite hitting 43 homer with 128 RBI last year he only posted a 3.4 WAR. Why is that? Things like baserunning, defense and injury. Considering his history Hamilton is an old 31 and his decline is likely, even over the next few years. Upton on the other hand will cost a good deal of money but his potential is likely given his age and health. Also, considering Upton's known to not put in the work perhaps the fear striking and multiple batting coaches to watch over him Farrell led team would get more out of him. I'd rather the Sox pay for years 27-31 or so for Upton than ages 32-35 for Hamilton, if it must be done.
Until next time,
The SAHD
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