Red Sox FA Starting Pitcher Targets Edition

While I contemplate the 800lb gorilla of the Patriots 7-6 playoff record since 2005, the Red Sox have introduced their new manager, the square-jawed intimidator John Farrell.  The Red Sox starting pitching was shameful last year.  From Baseball Reference:  The Quality Start % (pitching 6 or more innings and allowing 3 runs or less) for starters was 44%, 12th out of 15 AL teams. The Innings Per Game Started was 5.7, 10th of 15 teams. The vast majority of Red Sox starters in 2012 could not or would not drag themselves to the threshold of even the most mediocre of starting pitching stats. That's not just loosing baseball, that's pampered overpaid lazy-ass starting pitcher baseball.  And with teams signing more and more of their valuable pitchers to long term deals before they hit free agency it's harder than ever to get good starting pitching without giving up the farm.

Consensus opinion is the Red Sox need a starting pitcher or two or three to add to the mix, having traded Josh Beckett, letting Daisuke's enigma float away, and having left under-performing, recently injured, and youthful staff anchors Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Felix Dubrount and John Lackey (the Lackey as a member of the rotation in 2013 talk is more disturbing than the reality that global warming is actually a debate again).  This being the case, I've found three free agent starting pitching targets I believe the Red Sox should go after.  All three are age 28, more or less in the sweetspot of their primes, and should be more reasonable than questionable, older, or bigger names like Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, or Jake Peavey.  I would include Edwin Jackson as a target but he has been on 7 teams the last 8 years and is the ripe and way too old for this group age of 29.  Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball HQ for the stats.  And now the list:

#1 Anibal Sanchez.
         
          Innings    K    K/9    WHIP    Ground Ball %    Innings/Start
2010     195    157   7.2      1.34             45%                6.1
2011     196    202   9.3      1.28             44%                6.1
2012     196    167   7.7      1.29             46%                6.3

This guy is a model of consistency.  He will no doubt cost the most money, but with his excellent ground ball and strikeout rates and innings eater ability there is a great chance he'll be worth it. The Sox should put the hard press on this guy, no doubt he will have plenty of suitors after the World Series.  Who knows, maybe he'll respond favorably considering they signed him and traded him for a playoff performing declining tub of goo. That linked story shows the Royals consider him their top free agent target.  The Royals should present no significant difficulty, right?

#2 Francisco Liriano

Liriano has been quite the enigma.  He's been a baseball comet, striking out a ton and looking unhittable.  He's gone through Tommy John surgery and been seen as a disappointment. Let's take a look at recent history:

          Innings    K    K/9    WHIP    Ground Ball %    Innings/Start
2009     137    122   8.0      1.55             40%                5.7
2010     192    201   9.4      1.26             54%                6.2
2011     134    112   7.5      1.49             49%                5.6
2012     157    167   9.6      1.47             44%                5.6

He's had some DL stints in '09 and '11, which makes him inconsistent, but his combination of ground ball tendencies and strikeout potential make him the most intriguing of this bunch.  Farrell spoke of attacking the zone with pitchers yesterday, Liriano has been there in 2010.  Can the Sox help him find that again?  I say go for it. He's at a great age, has shown tremendous ability, and won't break the bank.

#3 Carlos Villanueva

          Innings    K    K/9    WHIP    Ground Ball %    Innings/Start
2011     107    68     5.7      1.26             36%              
2012     125    122   8.8      1.27             37%                6.0

The least experienced of the three, he seems like a solid choice to compete with Dubrount for the 4th or 5th starter role.  He doesn't have the ground ball tendencies of the other two but keeps the ball in the yard and developed as a starter under our new manager in Toronto. This guy is more of a lottery ticket than the other two but a better bet than, for example, sinking $60 M into Kyle Lohse.

Sanchez will be a big signing, but Liriano has the potential to be somewhere between Bill Mueller and David Ortiz as a free agent grab.  Carlos Villanueva could be like Cody Ross. These are guys Cherington, Farrell and Co should consider if they want to spend their money wisely and develop a winner.

Until next time,

The SAHD