Having looked through some starting pitcher targets earlier in the week I've decided to tackle the Red Sox positional needs. I'm very much in favor of a return to 2003 style of free agency, trying to find a diamond in the rough, so I decided to see if there was anyone close to David Ortiz's Age 26 2002 or Jose Bautista's Age 29 2008 available to find. People want to get back to some of that grind it out baseball, taking some walks, pounding some homers, and keeping the players the Sox have drafted and developed. As such I'm looking at three stats: On Base Average (OBA), Home Runs HR, and On-Base + Slugging (OPS). These three stats can be harbingers of excellent hitters, so lets see how Papi and Joey Bats fared in the season just prior to their breakouts.
Ortiz .341 OBA 20 HR .841 OPS
Bautista .344 OBA 13 HR .752 OPS
Considering Ortiz was only 26 it's rather shocking now to see how cheaply the Red Sox got him in 2003. I don't believe with the way front office's are run these days a guy like this would become available again, but you never know. Bautista is interesting because he was considered old at 29. So those are the benchmarks I'm shooting for, and the positions the Red Sox need are 1B, SS (yes Iglesias is there but he can't hit a lick right now), and OF (Ellsbury, Cody Ross if he comes back, Ryan Kalish, Daniel Nava. Considering Ells is a big question along with the rest I'd say OF is a priority).
First Base
It's a thin market, Mike Napoli could play some first but he's 31 so too old for this study and probably will require too much cash with the power market so thin. There are two players that could be interesting however.
Mark Reynolds Age 29 .328 OBA 23 HR .757 OPS
The Orioles hold an $11 M option on Reynolds, or a $500 K buyout. There is a good possibility Reynolds could become available. He has averaged 35 HRs the previous 4 years and would be the most expensive of the players examined here if the Os let him go. Even so the Sox could find some value here if other teams think his glove, much improved at first base, is made to be a DH. The linked story from the Baltimore Sun above also shows he may even be learning to cut down on his record setting strikeouts.
Casey Kotchman Age 29
There are some trends worth looking into on this guy. I know we've seen his act here before but check out his last four years. OBA '12 .270 '11 .367 '10 .278 '09 .335 HR '12 12 '11 10 '10 9 '09 7 OPS '12 603 '11 789 '10 614 '09 717. Good years OBA and OPS '11, '09, slow rise in HR. We're going into an odd year in '13, he could put it all together and have a career year. It wouldn't be Papi or Bautista like but he could be Kevin Millar with a better glove. I'd take that for a cheap short term 1B option.
Short Stop
Ronny Cedeno Age 29 .328 OBA 4 HR 738 OPS
This guy looks like a washout but there are some interesting tidbits. He had his best offensive season in limited at bats last year and could be a very good option to spell or keep the seat warm for Jose Iglesias if he ever learns to hit. He started in Pittsburg for a couple of years and could surprise due to his age and small seeds of offense. Stephen Drew is also available this offseason at age 29 but will cost more and be no more reliable.
Outfield
Melky Cabrera Age 28 .394 OBA 11 HR .910 OPS
We know the numbers above are artificially produced, but age 26 he was .341 OBA 18 HR .810 OPS. Sure, he could've been juicing then too, but he's at a prime age and will most likely come cheap. That's what this study is all about.
It doesn't appear that there are any superstars lurking here on the surface but this is how the offseason was approached in 2002 for the Red Sox and what we're all hoping for this year. Trading away prospects seems like a bad idea, with the system just starting to reassert itself after trading the farm for Adrian Gonzalez after the 2010 season. This is a bad offseason for free agent spending, with some very questionable top talent. Keep the money and wait for a better free agent class and some prospects to mature in 2014.
Until next time,
The SAHD
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