So amongst all the local dribble about how the Red Sox have acquired nothing but a bunch of #3 starters (no one has even had the witty light-bulb to call them all #2) I figured I would do a little New Year's Eve digging on whether the rotation was chicken soup or chicken, well, yeah.
I've done a comparison of the Sox big three over the last four years and found some interesting trends. GB% is for ground ball percentage and click the links to ERA+ and Expected ERA (xERA) for details on those. Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball HQ for the stats.
Pitcher Age Innings K BB WHIP K/9 BB/9 ERA+ GB% xERA
Wade Miley 24 40 25 18 1.65 5.6 4.1 88 46 4.63
25 194.2 144 37 1.18 6.7 1.7 122 43 3.89
26 202.2 147 66 1.32 6.5 2.9 109 52 3.79
27 201.1 183 75 1.40 8.2 3.4 86 51 3.59
Rick Porcello 22 182.0 104 46 1.41 5.1 2.3 87 51 4.05
23 176.1 107 44 1.53 5.5 2.2 93 53 4.15
24 177.0 142 42 1.28 7.2 2.1 96 55 3.32
25 204.2 129 41 1.23 5.7 1.8 116 49 3.74
Clay Buchholz 26 82.2 60 31 1.29 6.5 3.4 127 51 4.16
27 189.1 129 64 1.33 6.1 3.0 92 48 4.27
28 108.1 96 36 1.03 8.0 3.0 237 48 3.31
29 170.1 132 54 1.39 7.0 2.9 72 47 3.99
And just for the supposed Ace of it:
James Shields 29 249.1 225 65 1.04 8.1 2.3 134 46 3.21
30 227.2 223 58 1.17 8.8 2.3 109 52 3.23
31 228.2 196 68 1.24 7.7 2.7 131 42 3.72
32 227.0 180 44 1.18 7.1 1.7 124 45 3.56
Scott Lindholm at Beyond the Box Score did a fascinating study on how pitchers age. His conclusion: unless the pitcher is an all time great the curve is up until 28 then a slow burn down to mediocrity in the following years. James is a very good pitcher. He's an innings eater, has expected ERAs in the 3's, and is constantly posting ERA+s (where over 100 is above average) in the very very good range. But there are classic signs of the pitcher bell curve here. His peak appears to be age 30, with an 8.8 K/9, 52 GB%, and 3.23 xERA. After that there's still consistent innings, but his K rate tells the tale. He's looking like the next Jake Peavy. Is that someone you want to spend $120-$140 million on? Now let's check out the Sox motley crew.
Wade Miley is just hitting his peak. His K rate and GB rate are trending up, not down. His best case scenario for the 2015 season appears to be a better best of Daisuke. Something like fewer walks, more innings, and more Ks than the human delay of game himself's 2008 18-3 2.90 ERA 167.2 innings 154K 94 BB 1.32 WHIP campaign.
Rick Porcello is pre-peak and very interesting. His GBs are solid, he fiddled with his Ks two years ago, and despite his years in the league he's still learning his craft. Could a little encouragement from John Farrell and company assist him the same way it assisted one Jon Lester to greatness? Think between a cross of Brandon Webb and Derek Lowe.
As for Mr. Buccholtz, well let's just hope he can submit an age 30 season like his age 28 and 26 seasons. Seems like every two years he puts it all together and seems like a world beater. Can he mix some of the durability of ages 27 and 29 with the skills of 28 and 26? Now that would be an Ace.
Yes, the Red Sox have rotation questions. But they also have solid reasons for their rotation gambles. Bringing in Shields or anyone like him won't bring the answer, and other teams aren't about to trade their Ace like guys. Unless the Nats are foolish enough to trade Zimmerman. But that's another post.
Until next time,
The SAHD
