First things first, I'm thankful for my readers, for Kerry Byrne of Cold Hard Football facts and Dan Roche of WBZ for retweeting this blog, for my ravishing wife and her beautiful soul, for the health of my children, the grace of God and simply the ability to blog.
Now Peter Gammons just pointed out on MLB Network's Hot Stove that there is a new Red Sox curse, the curse of Hiroki Kuroda. Apparently Kuroda nixed a deal to the Red Sox in July of 2011 on the principal that you do not leave your teammates behind. I love the self awareness and poetry (go to 2:30 or so of this video) that exists in some Japanese ball players. There's my baseball romantic side again. Anyhow, Gammons pointed out if Kuroda had been on that Sox team beerandchickengate may never have happened. Only Governor Arnold can express how I feel after hearing that.
The Red Sox continue to search for a first baseman, a shortstop, outfielders and starting pitchers. I've produced focused studies on the best fits at everyday positions, starting pitchers, 1st base, and even some big money outfielders. There's rumors galore out there for every position, but I thought I would look into a player that Bob Ryan would question. That's right, J.D. Drew's little brother Stephen Drew, who is just behind the one time Red Sox now post season hero Marco Scutaro on MLBTradeRumor's top 50 free agents. I've been reticent to consider him, as BaseballHQ says 'Disappointment, thy name is Drew', but the fact is he does have some talent in a very weak SS market and could be had with a one year deal so why not.
I'll take some stats from BaseballHQ and Baseball Reference, including their version of the controversial WAR, and see what I find.
Age HR OBA OPS WAR BB% GB% FB% HR/F
24 12 .313 .683 -0.2 10% 38% 46% 6%
25 21 .336 .838 2.7 6% 35% 43% 10%
26 12 .323 .751 2.7 8% 39% 42% 6%
27 15 .349 .808 3.7 10% 40% 41% 8%
28 5 .316 .712 1.7 9% 39% 40% 5%
29 7 .312 .660 -0.6 11% 32% 40% 8%
Drew broke his ankle in July of 2011, his age 28 season, and was still recovering last year between Arizona and Oakland. Just like his big brother he has been accused of milking injuries, but what if last year he was still recovering and this year will be the first year he's back to normal since a full age 27 season? It's a big 'if', but look at some of those age 27 vs age 29 numbers: BB% 10/11, FB% 41/40, HR/F 8/8. His GB% registered as the lowest in his career last year yet his FB% remained constant. This tells me he was hitting a lot more line drives. There is some data out there on how hard a ball is hit, which is still somewhat developing, but according to BaseballHQ his hard hit % was 31%, which isn't far from his age 27 season of 33%. His soft hit % however was 18% after being at 19% at age 28 but never higher than 16% at age 27 and earlier. All of this tells me he was still recovering, hitting some more cans of corn than usual with that soft hit %, and was a bit unlucky getting hits considering he was hitting the ball almost as hard as his age 27 season.
There is plenty of risk, if his temperament is anything like J.D.'s he won't be a good fit and he will definitely be treated with a 'soft player' bias by the media and fans the first chance we get. But there is a lot more potential to a very productive playing for a contract one year player here than I expected. As long as the bidding doesn't get out of control between all the rumored teams (Detroit, New York, Oakland, etc.) the Sox could do a lot worse.
Until next time and Happy Thanksgiving,
The SAHD
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