My hot stove wheels are spinning out of control! Napoli AND Swisher AND C Ross OH MY! And on MLB Hot Stove this morning Matt Vasgersian suggested a couple of guys sitting in a bar and sharing scotch was a better way to consummate trades than (in a whiny condescending voice) guys talking about this guys' OBP and this guys' WAR. Good thing MLB redeemed him with his Rush 'Fly By Night' call of a Padres home run against the DBacks in 2004. Jackass. And there was of course the flurry of activity surrounding the jaw dropping rumored Jon Lester for Wil Myers trade with the King Me Royals. Rather than thinking about why it might or might not work I was wondering why the Red Sox would even consider this. Starting pitching is It right? Lester hasn't developed into an Ace but he's still pretty good, is big minor league power really worth a solid #2 pitcher in the AL East? Are the Sox sitting on close to ready high quality starters in their system to compliment the mint that could be spent on the three amigos for the lineup?
To find out I decided to stack up a few minor league pitchers with a recent superstar brought up fairly quickly from the minors to great fanfare: Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nats. I use him because he can help to qualify the quality of our guys and he's a nice high rung to shoot for. I'm using Innings, WHIP (Walks + Hits/Innings), Home Runs per 9 innings allowed, strikeouts (K) per 9 innings pitched, and strikeouts per walks (BB). I leave out ERA because it's such a limited stat, and wins and losses because they are way beyond the starting pitcher's control. Innings show durability or red flags for the future, WHIP shows how much a pitcher controls a game, HR/9 shows how the pitcher keeps the ball in the yard, K/9 shows dominance, and K/BB piggybacks on WHIP to give texture to the precept that if you strike guys out and don't walk them you are going places my son. I'll list ages and minor league levels for each pitcher, so you know the progression is FRK, RK, A, A+, AA, AAA, Majors.
Strasburg
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
21-AA/AAA 55.1 .795 .2 10.6 5
22-A/AA/AAA 20.1 .836 .4 12.8 9.67
21-Majors 68.0 1.074 .7 12.2 5.41
22-Majors 24.0 .708 - 9 12
23-Majors 159.1 1.155 .8 11.1 4.1
Strasburg is a special case. He was a consensus #1 overall choice in the MLB draft, a college pitcher, and rushed to the Majors. His time between majors and minors has been because of Tommy John surgery. He was rushed because he's a phenom and because the Nationals needed to get fans to the ballpark. The Red Sox don't have anyone just like him, but do they have anything close? The number 1 guy in terms of potential is Matt Barnes. Like Strasburg he was a college pitcher and drafted by the Sox in 2011.
Barnes
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
22-A 26.2 .600 - 14.2 10.5
22-A+ 93 1.183 .6 8.8 3.64
22-Total 119.2 1.053 .5 10.3 4.59
Barnes showed he had nothing to prove in A ball, if Strasburg had graced A ball with his presence he would've dominated even more than Barnes by the way, so the Sox moved him up a level. Overall a very successful year, but he will only be in the Majors next year for one reason: he goes to AA and dominates like he did in A ball for a couple of months and forces their hand. Even then he'll only go around 150 innings total, instead of the 200+ required by major league starters, because jumping innings can be a danger to your health. So I was right on Pineda but wrong about Kuroda, curse you Kuroda! Barnes has awesome potential but he's not there quite yet. What about those boys from the Dodgers, Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa? Both were high school or equivalent when drafted and have been around a lot longer than Barnes.
Webster
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
18-Rk 18.1 1.582 .5 6.4 .76
19-Rk 68.2 1.102 .1 10.1 4.28
20-A 131.1 1.310 .4 7.8 2.15
21-A+/AA 145 1.407 .6 8.4 2.37
22-AA 130.2 1.485 .1 8.9 2.11
De La Rosa (Age 18 & 23 Majors stats left out due to <10 Innings Pitched)
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
19-FRK 47.1 1.162 - 9.7 2.43
20-RK 16.1 1.714 - 12.1 2
21-A/AA 110.1 1.133 .3 7.7 2.47
22-AA 40 1.225 .2 11.7 2.74
23-RK/A/AA 13 .923 - 9 3
22-Majors 60.2 1.401 .9 8.9 1.94
With Webster we see a pitcher who is walking more and more batters. While he is closer to the Majors than Barnes he looks much more like a #3 than a #2 and certainly not an Ace. It hurts to say but his upside looks to be the 2007 version of Daisuke, hopefully without the 4 hour game times. Pretty good, but that's only if he continues to increase his K/9 and cuts down the walks. A tall order, and AAA looks like the best bet to see if that's in the cards for him next year. De La Rosa is intriguing. Another victim of inning jumps (+94 from Age 20 to 21), he went through Tommy John and is just getting back. He should be ready by spring training, but his walks and homers given up at age 22 in the Majors are concerning. He's more dominant than Webster, thus a better bet to reach #2 status, but that appears to be his ceiling. The Sox could use him in the bullpen but that's a waste of potential. De La Rosa could fit in Dubrount style as the #5, but expecting anything more than 110-130 innings would be asking for trouble.
After doing this study I have to admit the haul from the Dodgers wasn't a major coup, but it certainly provides the Sox with options. Those options, however, should not be to trade a quality major league starter like Jon Lester. The trade should be of Webster or De La Rosa for major league ready or established starting pitching. Because if they sign Swisher, Ross and Napoli they will sprint down the same road they were on before The Purge if they have to sign 2 starting pitchers in free agency as well. Please, no more Vader.
Until next time,
The SAHD
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