It was Herman Melville who penned:
"There is one knows not what sweet mystery about this sea, whose gently awful stirrings seem to speak of some hidden soul beneath. "
Well Herman for me it is not the sea that is that sweet mystery, it is my own White Whale, an Ace starting pitcher for my beloved Red Sox. And what Ace has been bandied about by such baseball reporting luminaries as Buster Olney? David Taylor Price of those plucky Tampa Bay Rays. Yes, that David Price, who will soon be pitching in his age 27 season and the reigning AL Cy Young award winner. He is at the pinnacle of his trade value, but he is also the rarest of possibilities, an undeniable Ace available at the beginning of his peak. Price is not nearly the postseason hero Josh Beckett was when he was traded to the Red Sox, but how does he compare to the last big trade made by the Sox for a starter? Let's see what baseball reference and Baseball HQ have to say about the 4 years prior to a trade or potential trade:
David Price Josh Beckett
GB% Trend 41-44-44-53 37-47-45-43
K/9 Trend 7.2-8.1-8.7-8.7 9.4-9.6-8.7-8.4
WHIP Trend 1.35-1.19-1.14-1.10 1.27-1.32-1.22-1.18
K/BB Trend 1.89-2.38-3.46-3.47 2.57-2.71-2.81-2.86
Beckett stuck out more, but Price gets more groundballs, walks less, and strikes out almost as much. Price also has a clear upward trend, whereas Beckett was more of a rollercoaster. Price is the better pitcher.
Back in the day the Sox had to give up their #1 prospect, SS Hanley Ramirez, along with Anibal Sanchez, current best starter on the free agent market not named Zack Greinke, for Beckett. Once again the Red Sox top prospect is a Dominican shortstop, this time with a name out of a Tolkein novel, Xavier Bogaerts. And like some softly spoken spell whispered by Gandolph this prospect is accompanied by mysticism and wonder. Every Fenway fan knows the Sox have been a black hole at shortstop since the salad days of Nomar. We tend to get emotional about great looking young shortstops who can hit with power, but a cooler head such as Jim Callis from Baseball America told Alex Speier of WEEI that Bogaerts isn't quite Hanley Ramirez. Callis also detailed the Red Sox 10th best prospect, SS Deven Marrero, who is seen as a good defender with a solid bat and on base skills, so Bogaerts isn't the only hope beyond the no-hit Iglesias.
Back before PED testing and punishment was a total joke the Red Sox needed a one two punch of Manny and Papi along with a great rotation to compete Now more than ever it is starting pitching that matters, as witnessed by the 2012 San Francisco Giants, and a rotation anchored by Price, with Lester and Buccholz slotted down to the 2 and 3 spots, would be formidable. Combined with the lineup of Ellsbury and Pedroia and Papi it would be more than enough to compete for a World Series. I wouldn't trade starting pitching for a bat, and I wouldn't trade Bogaerts for anyone other than a true Ace, but Price is worth it. Bogaerts wouldn't be enough, more players would be involved, but as Olney wrote it would have to start there and I believe this should be Cherington's #1 priority this week at the MLB winter meetings.
Until next time,
The SAHD
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