Friday, November 30, 2012
Hanson Not Traded To Red Sox Ridiculous! Edition
I thought the Hot Stove was cooking pretty good before, now something's got me steaming mad! Tommy Hanson, erstwhile Ace of the Atlanta Braves, was just traded to the LA Angels for RP Jordan Walden. The Braves are going to use Walden in the middle innings because they have the best closer in the game in young Craig Kimbrel. I argued against trading for a guy like Josh Johnson a few weeks ago because he was at the tail end of his prime years, and trading for a guy like Pedro because his best years were ahead of him. Let's stack up Hanson compared to those two in the first four years of their careers with baseball references WAR:
Name: Hanson Pedro Johnson
Age/WAR 22/3.7 22/2.2 22/3.0
23/2.6 23/4.5 23/-.6
24/1.2 24/3.8 24/1.9
25/-.9 25/8.7 25/6.4
Pedro is on another plain, but through 3 years Hanson had 7.5 WAR, Johnson had 4.3. The difference is Hanson tanked in year 4 while the other two took off. Hanson had a bad year last year, concussing himself by crashing his car in February then he had a back strain that put him on the DL in July. He also had a shoulder strain in 2011. His WAR is in a clear downward trend but this is not the type of guy you just let slip through your fingers. This guy has huge potential and The Angels gave up their out of no where closer to get him. The Sox couldn't top that jazz? How about a finer look at Hanson:
Age 22 23 24 25
Innings 127.2 202.2 130.0 174.2
WHIP 1.183 1.174 1.169 1.454
HR/9 .7 .6 1.2 1.4
K/9 8.2 7.7 9.8 8.3
K/BB 2.52 3.09 3.09 2.27
He lost some control lost year resulting in the lower K/BB and WHIP and higher HR/9 but his K/9 was great and I'm almost shocked the Braves didn't shop him for more or the Red Sox let this happen without a serious offer. All I can do is shake my head sometimes.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Hot Stove Bats To Covet For Sox Edition
As Rob Bradford writes Big Papi opined that the Sox 'need some thunder in that lineup' on WEEI's Hot Stove. As usual Papi put the focus on his self importance, but his point is somewhat valid. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say by thunder he means homers and on base ability. I am convinced we all got so spoiled by those 4 hour games of guys working the count over and over that watching Daisuke 'I have a million free private flights in my contract, I've got time' Matsuzaka pitch pushed us all over the edge and we took our eyes off the ball. We started listening to the media complain about late nights, to Francona and Gonzalez whine about the schedule, and to our own desire to get an extra hour back in our lives. Is it about winning, or is it about comfort? Tell us Charlie.
A couple of weeks ago I looked into the battle between Mike Napoli and Adam LaRoche. End result, LaRoche in a close but clear win. Now it appears the Nats have chosen Denard Span over LaRoche and Davey Johnson is trying an end around at his golf tournament to get LaRoche back. There's also chatter about the Nats going after Greinke, the best starting pitcher in the market. As a Sox fan I hope the Nats drive dump trucks full of money up to Greinke's house and leave LaRoche for the picking. This would be good for both the Sox and the Nats, whose fanbase just got Soxified in last year's playoffs and I feel a real connection to them. It is a universal fact, nothing brings people together like sports misery and heartbreak. Despite yesterdays rumor that the Sox were after Napoli, Cody Ross, and Nick Swisher it seems fairly clear now what the best path could be, assuming contracts don't get insane. The Sox already signed the right handed hitting, lefty pitching mashing, good clubhouse presence guy Johnny Gomes. I'm forced to pause and point out they gave this guy two years at $5 Million per. Time to talk to myself "It's ok SAHD, it's just a part time player getting big money for a short time, short term contracts, short term contracts, dooo dooo doo dooo doo dooo dooo." Cody Ross, you position has been filled. Now if they can grab LaRoche, Swisher appears to be next. What about the Swishmeister? The old Baseball HQ treatment:
Nick Swisher Age 31 GB% FB% HR/F% OBA HR OPS
2009 38 46 17 .371 29 .869
2010 36 45 15 .354 29 .865
2011 39 39 14 .374 23 .822
2012 39 39 15 .363 24 .836
There is more consistency in Swisher's game than either LaRoche or Napoli, but troubling signs as well. The fly ball decline with a ground ball increase is ominous. Thankfully his on base skills are intact and perhaps his fly ball swing will come back with the Green Monstah to shoot for. He's a switch hitter which would help to even out the lineup, and another clubhouse guy in the mold of Millar. Seems promising, but lets feed these guys into the baseball reference WAR machine from 2009-2012:
Name: Swisher LaRoche Napoli Ross
Age/WAR 28/1.7 29/2.2 27/2.7 28/2.2
29/3.4 30/0.9 28/1.7 29/1.6
30/1.5 31/-.3 29/5.3 30/-.1
31/3.5 32/4.0 30/1.4 31/1.6
This adds a little context to the stats, as witnessed in my argument to sign B.J. Upton instead of Josh Hamilton if a big money deal had to be made. A 3.0 or better is a solid everyday player, and as you can see there isn't a totally solid one among them. Swisher comes the closest which is why he'll get the most money and why, despite my reservations about his power going forward, I would support the Sox inking him. As for Napoli and LaRoche, I believe LaRoche's 2010-2011 seasons were marred by injury and being traded around like a Greg Jeffries' Score rookie card in Mr. Smith's homeroom in 1989. His 4.0 WAR last year is supported by solid underlying skills of power, on base, and defense at first although that is only a small part. Napoli's 5.3 in 2011 was driven by an unsustainable .412 on base thanks to raising ground balls and falling fly balls. As for Ross, well even among this motley crew he doesn't quite make it. Total 4 year WAR: Swisher 10.1, LaRoche 6.8, Napoli 11.1, Ross 5.3.
All that being said I would still sign up for Hamilton for three years. Too bad that's more of a LSD trip than Woodstock. They head to the General Manger's meetings in Nashville next week and if a GM can feel comfortable with 3 years you better believe there's another who will put up 5. If the haul is Swisher, LaRoche, and a Carlos Villanueva or Francisco Liriano for the rotation I'll be happy. And maybe, just maybe, they can do a deal for a good to great starter centered around Allen Webster.
Until next time,
The SAHD
A couple of weeks ago I looked into the battle between Mike Napoli and Adam LaRoche. End result, LaRoche in a close but clear win. Now it appears the Nats have chosen Denard Span over LaRoche and Davey Johnson is trying an end around at his golf tournament to get LaRoche back. There's also chatter about the Nats going after Greinke, the best starting pitcher in the market. As a Sox fan I hope the Nats drive dump trucks full of money up to Greinke's house and leave LaRoche for the picking. This would be good for both the Sox and the Nats, whose fanbase just got Soxified in last year's playoffs and I feel a real connection to them. It is a universal fact, nothing brings people together like sports misery and heartbreak. Despite yesterdays rumor that the Sox were after Napoli, Cody Ross, and Nick Swisher it seems fairly clear now what the best path could be, assuming contracts don't get insane. The Sox already signed the right handed hitting, lefty pitching mashing, good clubhouse presence guy Johnny Gomes. I'm forced to pause and point out they gave this guy two years at $5 Million per. Time to talk to myself "It's ok SAHD, it's just a part time player getting big money for a short time, short term contracts, short term contracts, dooo dooo doo dooo doo dooo dooo." Cody Ross, you position has been filled. Now if they can grab LaRoche, Swisher appears to be next. What about the Swishmeister? The old Baseball HQ treatment:
Nick Swisher Age 31 GB% FB% HR/F% OBA HR OPS
2009 38 46 17 .371 29 .869
2010 36 45 15 .354 29 .865
2011 39 39 14 .374 23 .822
2012 39 39 15 .363 24 .836
There is more consistency in Swisher's game than either LaRoche or Napoli, but troubling signs as well. The fly ball decline with a ground ball increase is ominous. Thankfully his on base skills are intact and perhaps his fly ball swing will come back with the Green Monstah to shoot for. He's a switch hitter which would help to even out the lineup, and another clubhouse guy in the mold of Millar. Seems promising, but lets feed these guys into the baseball reference WAR machine from 2009-2012:
Name: Swisher LaRoche Napoli Ross
Age/WAR 28/1.7 29/2.2 27/2.7 28/2.2
29/3.4 30/0.9 28/1.7 29/1.6
30/1.5 31/-.3 29/5.3 30/-.1
31/3.5 32/4.0 30/1.4 31/1.6
This adds a little context to the stats, as witnessed in my argument to sign B.J. Upton instead of Josh Hamilton if a big money deal had to be made. A 3.0 or better is a solid everyday player, and as you can see there isn't a totally solid one among them. Swisher comes the closest which is why he'll get the most money and why, despite my reservations about his power going forward, I would support the Sox inking him. As for Napoli and LaRoche, I believe LaRoche's 2010-2011 seasons were marred by injury and being traded around like a Greg Jeffries' Score rookie card in Mr. Smith's homeroom in 1989. His 4.0 WAR last year is supported by solid underlying skills of power, on base, and defense at first although that is only a small part. Napoli's 5.3 in 2011 was driven by an unsustainable .412 on base thanks to raising ground balls and falling fly balls. As for Ross, well even among this motley crew he doesn't quite make it. Total 4 year WAR: Swisher 10.1, LaRoche 6.8, Napoli 11.1, Ross 5.3.
All that being said I would still sign up for Hamilton for three years. Too bad that's more of a LSD trip than Woodstock. They head to the General Manger's meetings in Nashville next week and if a GM can feel comfortable with 3 years you better believe there's another who will put up 5. If the haul is Swisher, LaRoche, and a Carlos Villanueva or Francisco Liriano for the rotation I'll be happy. And maybe, just maybe, they can do a deal for a good to great starter centered around Allen Webster.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Hot Stove Sizzlin' - Starting Pitching Edition
My hot stove wheels are spinning out of control! Napoli AND Swisher AND C Ross OH MY! And on MLB Hot Stove this morning Matt Vasgersian suggested a couple of guys sitting in a bar and sharing scotch was a better way to consummate trades than (in a whiny condescending voice) guys talking about this guys' OBP and this guys' WAR. Good thing MLB redeemed him with his Rush 'Fly By Night' call of a Padres home run against the DBacks in 2004. Jackass. And there was of course the flurry of activity surrounding the jaw dropping rumored Jon Lester for Wil Myers trade with the King Me Royals. Rather than thinking about why it might or might not work I was wondering why the Red Sox would even consider this. Starting pitching is It right? Lester hasn't developed into an Ace but he's still pretty good, is big minor league power really worth a solid #2 pitcher in the AL East? Are the Sox sitting on close to ready high quality starters in their system to compliment the mint that could be spent on the three amigos for the lineup?
To find out I decided to stack up a few minor league pitchers with a recent superstar brought up fairly quickly from the minors to great fanfare: Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nats. I use him because he can help to qualify the quality of our guys and he's a nice high rung to shoot for. I'm using Innings, WHIP (Walks + Hits/Innings), Home Runs per 9 innings allowed, strikeouts (K) per 9 innings pitched, and strikeouts per walks (BB). I leave out ERA because it's such a limited stat, and wins and losses because they are way beyond the starting pitcher's control. Innings show durability or red flags for the future, WHIP shows how much a pitcher controls a game, HR/9 shows how the pitcher keeps the ball in the yard, K/9 shows dominance, and K/BB piggybacks on WHIP to give texture to the precept that if you strike guys out and don't walk them you are going places my son. I'll list ages and minor league levels for each pitcher, so you know the progression is FRK, RK, A, A+, AA, AAA, Majors.
Strasburg
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
21-AA/AAA 55.1 .795 .2 10.6 5
22-A/AA/AAA 20.1 .836 .4 12.8 9.67
21-Majors 68.0 1.074 .7 12.2 5.41
22-Majors 24.0 .708 - 9 12
23-Majors 159.1 1.155 .8 11.1 4.1
Strasburg is a special case. He was a consensus #1 overall choice in the MLB draft, a college pitcher, and rushed to the Majors. His time between majors and minors has been because of Tommy John surgery. He was rushed because he's a phenom and because the Nationals needed to get fans to the ballpark. The Red Sox don't have anyone just like him, but do they have anything close? The number 1 guy in terms of potential is Matt Barnes. Like Strasburg he was a college pitcher and drafted by the Sox in 2011.
Barnes
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
22-A 26.2 .600 - 14.2 10.5
22-A+ 93 1.183 .6 8.8 3.64
22-Total 119.2 1.053 .5 10.3 4.59
Barnes showed he had nothing to prove in A ball, if Strasburg had graced A ball with his presence he would've dominated even more than Barnes by the way, so the Sox moved him up a level. Overall a very successful year, but he will only be in the Majors next year for one reason: he goes to AA and dominates like he did in A ball for a couple of months and forces their hand. Even then he'll only go around 150 innings total, instead of the 200+ required by major league starters, because jumping innings can be a danger to your health. So I was right on Pineda but wrong about Kuroda, curse you Kuroda! Barnes has awesome potential but he's not there quite yet. What about those boys from the Dodgers, Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa? Both were high school or equivalent when drafted and have been around a lot longer than Barnes.
Webster
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
18-Rk 18.1 1.582 .5 6.4 .76
19-Rk 68.2 1.102 .1 10.1 4.28
20-A 131.1 1.310 .4 7.8 2.15
21-A+/AA 145 1.407 .6 8.4 2.37
22-AA 130.2 1.485 .1 8.9 2.11
De La Rosa (Age 18 & 23 Majors stats left out due to <10 Innings Pitched)
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
19-FRK 47.1 1.162 - 9.7 2.43
20-RK 16.1 1.714 - 12.1 2
21-A/AA 110.1 1.133 .3 7.7 2.47
22-AA 40 1.225 .2 11.7 2.74
23-RK/A/AA 13 .923 - 9 3
22-Majors 60.2 1.401 .9 8.9 1.94
With Webster we see a pitcher who is walking more and more batters. While he is closer to the Majors than Barnes he looks much more like a #3 than a #2 and certainly not an Ace. It hurts to say but his upside looks to be the 2007 version of Daisuke, hopefully without the 4 hour game times. Pretty good, but that's only if he continues to increase his K/9 and cuts down the walks. A tall order, and AAA looks like the best bet to see if that's in the cards for him next year. De La Rosa is intriguing. Another victim of inning jumps (+94 from Age 20 to 21), he went through Tommy John and is just getting back. He should be ready by spring training, but his walks and homers given up at age 22 in the Majors are concerning. He's more dominant than Webster, thus a better bet to reach #2 status, but that appears to be his ceiling. The Sox could use him in the bullpen but that's a waste of potential. De La Rosa could fit in Dubrount style as the #5, but expecting anything more than 110-130 innings would be asking for trouble.
After doing this study I have to admit the haul from the Dodgers wasn't a major coup, but it certainly provides the Sox with options. Those options, however, should not be to trade a quality major league starter like Jon Lester. The trade should be of Webster or De La Rosa for major league ready or established starting pitching. Because if they sign Swisher, Ross and Napoli they will sprint down the same road they were on before The Purge if they have to sign 2 starting pitchers in free agency as well. Please, no more Vader.
Until next time,
The SAHD
To find out I decided to stack up a few minor league pitchers with a recent superstar brought up fairly quickly from the minors to great fanfare: Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nats. I use him because he can help to qualify the quality of our guys and he's a nice high rung to shoot for. I'm using Innings, WHIP (Walks + Hits/Innings), Home Runs per 9 innings allowed, strikeouts (K) per 9 innings pitched, and strikeouts per walks (BB). I leave out ERA because it's such a limited stat, and wins and losses because they are way beyond the starting pitcher's control. Innings show durability or red flags for the future, WHIP shows how much a pitcher controls a game, HR/9 shows how the pitcher keeps the ball in the yard, K/9 shows dominance, and K/BB piggybacks on WHIP to give texture to the precept that if you strike guys out and don't walk them you are going places my son. I'll list ages and minor league levels for each pitcher, so you know the progression is FRK, RK, A, A+, AA, AAA, Majors.
Strasburg
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
21-AA/AAA 55.1 .795 .2 10.6 5
22-A/AA/AAA 20.1 .836 .4 12.8 9.67
21-Majors 68.0 1.074 .7 12.2 5.41
22-Majors 24.0 .708 - 9 12
23-Majors 159.1 1.155 .8 11.1 4.1
Strasburg is a special case. He was a consensus #1 overall choice in the MLB draft, a college pitcher, and rushed to the Majors. His time between majors and minors has been because of Tommy John surgery. He was rushed because he's a phenom and because the Nationals needed to get fans to the ballpark. The Red Sox don't have anyone just like him, but do they have anything close? The number 1 guy in terms of potential is Matt Barnes. Like Strasburg he was a college pitcher and drafted by the Sox in 2011.
Barnes
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
22-A 26.2 .600 - 14.2 10.5
22-A+ 93 1.183 .6 8.8 3.64
22-Total 119.2 1.053 .5 10.3 4.59
Barnes showed he had nothing to prove in A ball, if Strasburg had graced A ball with his presence he would've dominated even more than Barnes by the way, so the Sox moved him up a level. Overall a very successful year, but he will only be in the Majors next year for one reason: he goes to AA and dominates like he did in A ball for a couple of months and forces their hand. Even then he'll only go around 150 innings total, instead of the 200+ required by major league starters, because jumping innings can be a danger to your health. So I was right on Pineda but wrong about Kuroda, curse you Kuroda! Barnes has awesome potential but he's not there quite yet. What about those boys from the Dodgers, Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa? Both were high school or equivalent when drafted and have been around a lot longer than Barnes.
Webster
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
18-Rk 18.1 1.582 .5 6.4 .76
19-Rk 68.2 1.102 .1 10.1 4.28
20-A 131.1 1.310 .4 7.8 2.15
21-A+/AA 145 1.407 .6 8.4 2.37
22-AA 130.2 1.485 .1 8.9 2.11
De La Rosa (Age 18 & 23 Majors stats left out due to <10 Innings Pitched)
Age/Lg Innings WHIP HR/9 K/9 K/BB
19-FRK 47.1 1.162 - 9.7 2.43
20-RK 16.1 1.714 - 12.1 2
21-A/AA 110.1 1.133 .3 7.7 2.47
22-AA 40 1.225 .2 11.7 2.74
23-RK/A/AA 13 .923 - 9 3
22-Majors 60.2 1.401 .9 8.9 1.94
With Webster we see a pitcher who is walking more and more batters. While he is closer to the Majors than Barnes he looks much more like a #3 than a #2 and certainly not an Ace. It hurts to say but his upside looks to be the 2007 version of Daisuke, hopefully without the 4 hour game times. Pretty good, but that's only if he continues to increase his K/9 and cuts down the walks. A tall order, and AAA looks like the best bet to see if that's in the cards for him next year. De La Rosa is intriguing. Another victim of inning jumps (+94 from Age 20 to 21), he went through Tommy John and is just getting back. He should be ready by spring training, but his walks and homers given up at age 22 in the Majors are concerning. He's more dominant than Webster, thus a better bet to reach #2 status, but that appears to be his ceiling. The Sox could use him in the bullpen but that's a waste of potential. De La Rosa could fit in Dubrount style as the #5, but expecting anything more than 110-130 innings would be asking for trouble.
After doing this study I have to admit the haul from the Dodgers wasn't a major coup, but it certainly provides the Sox with options. Those options, however, should not be to trade a quality major league starter like Jon Lester. The trade should be of Webster or De La Rosa for major league ready or established starting pitching. Because if they sign Swisher, Ross and Napoli they will sprint down the same road they were on before The Purge if they have to sign 2 starting pitchers in free agency as well. Please, no more Vader.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
CHFF Pats Pass D - Jets Put Downs Edition
Last week I mentioned the Jets offense was Glass Joe compared to the Soda Popinski Colts. After that whitewashing on Thanksgiving Day I think we can all agree the Jets are Glass Joe everyday, twice on Sunday, and good for a 49-19 taking candy from a baby and the Gronk brothers beating on Bill Gates type of loss. So what did we learn? They improved yet again their Defensive Real Quarterback Rating from Cold Hard Football Facts. That's good. Keeping in mind a lower score is better, they went from 81.82 after the Colts to 81.50 after the Jets. That's not bad, per se, because the Jets are just that bad. So instead of focusing on how the Patriots improved by a lot less than .01% I'll focus on how incredibly awful the Jets are. They suck so bad Fireman Ed is hanging up his helmet. Superfan my ass by the way, a bad string by your team and you're hitting the highway? Well why don't you cry about it? Saddlebags.
Subjectively things continue to look better for Belichick's minions. My questions update:
Until next time,
The SAHD
Subjectively things continue to look better for Belichick's minions. My questions update:
- Aqib Talib: They didn't throw his way as he had zero passes defended. This clearly was more about the slack jawed troglodytes chucking the ball for Rex Ryan than Talib's one on one ability. However it cannot be denied that there has been improvement since he got here. That earns a soft B.
- The rookies Jones and Hightower: Hightower continued his recovery from a tight hammy earlier in the season with a sack and 4 tackles (3 solo 1 assisted). And it's a good thing considering his fellow linebacker Jermaine Cunningham has just been suspended for 4 games for PEDs. As for Chandler Jones there are still questions about his ankle injury. The Boston Herald's The Blitz blog had the incredibly well researched and dirt digging insight that he walked without a limp for about 5 seconds. Of course the Patriots are so tight lipped and childish about releasing information that this tidbit qualifies as an injury update. What I don't understand is why sports departments at local news organizations don't hire private investigators to at the very least follow injured players around and at best get some real information? Are the Patriots going to cut the media off? Oh no, then they won't get to run the fluff and Stalin-esque propaganda pieces that are the height of 'time to change the channel'. Why hasn't Ron Borges done something like this?
- Tackling? Forcing a couple of fumbles, no breakaway runs, things are looking better.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Sox FA SS Target, Giving Thanks & The Kuroda Curse Edition
First things first, I'm thankful for my readers, for Kerry Byrne of Cold Hard Football facts and Dan Roche of WBZ for retweeting this blog, for my ravishing wife and her beautiful soul, for the health of my children, the grace of God and simply the ability to blog.
Now Peter Gammons just pointed out on MLB Network's Hot Stove that there is a new Red Sox curse, the curse of Hiroki Kuroda. Apparently Kuroda nixed a deal to the Red Sox in July of 2011 on the principal that you do not leave your teammates behind. I love the self awareness and poetry (go to 2:30 or so of this video) that exists in some Japanese ball players. There's my baseball romantic side again. Anyhow, Gammons pointed out if Kuroda had been on that Sox team beerandchickengate may never have happened. Only Governor Arnold can express how I feel after hearing that.
The Red Sox continue to search for a first baseman, a shortstop, outfielders and starting pitchers. I've produced focused studies on the best fits at everyday positions, starting pitchers, 1st base, and even some big money outfielders. There's rumors galore out there for every position, but I thought I would look into a player that Bob Ryan would question. That's right, J.D. Drew's little brother Stephen Drew, who is just behind the one time Red Sox now post season hero Marco Scutaro on MLBTradeRumor's top 50 free agents. I've been reticent to consider him, as BaseballHQ says 'Disappointment, thy name is Drew', but the fact is he does have some talent in a very weak SS market and could be had with a one year deal so why not.
I'll take some stats from BaseballHQ and Baseball Reference, including their version of the controversial WAR, and see what I find.
Age HR OBA OPS WAR BB% GB% FB% HR/F
24 12 .313 .683 -0.2 10% 38% 46% 6%
25 21 .336 .838 2.7 6% 35% 43% 10%
26 12 .323 .751 2.7 8% 39% 42% 6%
27 15 .349 .808 3.7 10% 40% 41% 8%
28 5 .316 .712 1.7 9% 39% 40% 5%
29 7 .312 .660 -0.6 11% 32% 40% 8%
Drew broke his ankle in July of 2011, his age 28 season, and was still recovering last year between Arizona and Oakland. Just like his big brother he has been accused of milking injuries, but what if last year he was still recovering and this year will be the first year he's back to normal since a full age 27 season? It's a big 'if', but look at some of those age 27 vs age 29 numbers: BB% 10/11, FB% 41/40, HR/F 8/8. His GB% registered as the lowest in his career last year yet his FB% remained constant. This tells me he was hitting a lot more line drives. There is some data out there on how hard a ball is hit, which is still somewhat developing, but according to BaseballHQ his hard hit % was 31%, which isn't far from his age 27 season of 33%. His soft hit % however was 18% after being at 19% at age 28 but never higher than 16% at age 27 and earlier. All of this tells me he was still recovering, hitting some more cans of corn than usual with that soft hit %, and was a bit unlucky getting hits considering he was hitting the ball almost as hard as his age 27 season.
There is plenty of risk, if his temperament is anything like J.D.'s he won't be a good fit and he will definitely be treated with a 'soft player' bias by the media and fans the first chance we get. But there is a lot more potential to a very productive playing for a contract one year player here than I expected. As long as the bidding doesn't get out of control between all the rumored teams (Detroit, New York, Oakland, etc.) the Sox could do a lot worse.
Until next time and Happy Thanksgiving,
The SAHD
Now Peter Gammons just pointed out on MLB Network's Hot Stove that there is a new Red Sox curse, the curse of Hiroki Kuroda. Apparently Kuroda nixed a deal to the Red Sox in July of 2011 on the principal that you do not leave your teammates behind. I love the self awareness and poetry (go to 2:30 or so of this video) that exists in some Japanese ball players. There's my baseball romantic side again. Anyhow, Gammons pointed out if Kuroda had been on that Sox team beerandchickengate may never have happened. Only Governor Arnold can express how I feel after hearing that.
The Red Sox continue to search for a first baseman, a shortstop, outfielders and starting pitchers. I've produced focused studies on the best fits at everyday positions, starting pitchers, 1st base, and even some big money outfielders. There's rumors galore out there for every position, but I thought I would look into a player that Bob Ryan would question. That's right, J.D. Drew's little brother Stephen Drew, who is just behind the one time Red Sox now post season hero Marco Scutaro on MLBTradeRumor's top 50 free agents. I've been reticent to consider him, as BaseballHQ says 'Disappointment, thy name is Drew', but the fact is he does have some talent in a very weak SS market and could be had with a one year deal so why not.
I'll take some stats from BaseballHQ and Baseball Reference, including their version of the controversial WAR, and see what I find.
Age HR OBA OPS WAR BB% GB% FB% HR/F
24 12 .313 .683 -0.2 10% 38% 46% 6%
25 21 .336 .838 2.7 6% 35% 43% 10%
26 12 .323 .751 2.7 8% 39% 42% 6%
27 15 .349 .808 3.7 10% 40% 41% 8%
28 5 .316 .712 1.7 9% 39% 40% 5%
29 7 .312 .660 -0.6 11% 32% 40% 8%
Drew broke his ankle in July of 2011, his age 28 season, and was still recovering last year between Arizona and Oakland. Just like his big brother he has been accused of milking injuries, but what if last year he was still recovering and this year will be the first year he's back to normal since a full age 27 season? It's a big 'if', but look at some of those age 27 vs age 29 numbers: BB% 10/11, FB% 41/40, HR/F 8/8. His GB% registered as the lowest in his career last year yet his FB% remained constant. This tells me he was hitting a lot more line drives. There is some data out there on how hard a ball is hit, which is still somewhat developing, but according to BaseballHQ his hard hit % was 31%, which isn't far from his age 27 season of 33%. His soft hit % however was 18% after being at 19% at age 28 but never higher than 16% at age 27 and earlier. All of this tells me he was still recovering, hitting some more cans of corn than usual with that soft hit %, and was a bit unlucky getting hits considering he was hitting the ball almost as hard as his age 27 season.
There is plenty of risk, if his temperament is anything like J.D.'s he won't be a good fit and he will definitely be treated with a 'soft player' bias by the media and fans the first chance we get. But there is a lot more potential to a very productive playing for a contract one year player here than I expected. As long as the bidding doesn't get out of control between all the rumored teams (Detroit, New York, Oakland, etc.) the Sox could do a lot worse.
Until next time and Happy Thanksgiving,
The SAHD
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Pats D - 4% over Glass Joe is Von Kaiser Edition
Last week I mentioned how necessary is was for New England to improve its pass defense. Let's see an update on the questions I posed:
"About Defensive Real Quarterback Rating. We introduced Real Quarterback Rating and Defensive Real Quarterback Rating before the 2011 season as a way to quantify all aspect of QB play. It's been a TOTAL score behind your wildest dreams. Teams better in Real QB Rating in 2011 went an incredible 223-33 (.871), proving that winning in the NFL is almost always about more efficient play at the QB position. -SNIP- Real Defensive Quarterback Rating measures how opposing quarterbacks perform against a given team not just passing, but also rushing. It also takes into account fumbles, rushes, rushing yards and sack stats to produce a new kind of rating that measures an opposing quarterback's overall performance with the ball, not just as a passer when he actually releases the ball (which is all that passer rating currently measures)."
After week 11 the Pats DRQBR was at a mediocre 22nd ranked score of 85.54. After the Colts game they are now in the exceptionally ordinary position of 18th in the league at 81.82. Hey, it's an 4% improvement. Baby steps to the quarterback, baby steps to tight coverage, baby steps to making a tackle. 4% is better than nothing. Then again right now the Patriots D is cooked spinach on my kids plate. 4% better than 'NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO I WILL NEVER EAT THIS!' is this far from total crap. So what about the competition?
With identical 6-3 records coming into this game the teams seemed somewhat evenly matched, with ballyhooed rookie QB Andrew Luck supposedly presenting a challenge to the pass defense. The general consensus, as seen in this Peter King piece, was that Luck would have a good day as long as he did't turn it over. We all know what happened. A couple of pick 6s will ruin anyone's day. The truth is Indy was a poor passing offense. After Week 11 Luck and Co had a RQBR score of 76.02, good for 22nd in the NFL. After playing the Patriots there are now at 73.63 and stand 24th. In other words the Indy passing offense is worse than another Family Guy time machine episode.
The Pats gave us a little sniff, a few pills pushed across the table instead of a full bottle. The pass defense is improving. Talib talked about getting comfortable and I'm optimistic he will improve. Even with Jones out Ninkovich picked up the pressure on the passer. Unfortunately they face the Jets this week, they of the 29th ranked RQBR score of 65.52. The Colts will look like Soda Popinski compared to the Glass Joe Jets on Thanksgiving night. Let's hope they can show incremental improvement again until the real tests in Weeks 14 and 15 against the Texans and 49ers.
Until next time,
The SAHD
- Is Aqib Talib the answer? Hey, I'll take a DB who grabs an interception and returns it to the house everyday and twice on Sundays. He didn't look great those first couple of series,and Zolak mentioned on the air how much help he had over the top from safeties. But he did help to hold Reggie Wayne to his worst game of the year, so after week 1 the answer is possibly. A lot better than no.
- Will Jones and Hightower get better or break down? The bad news, Jones suffered an ankle injury that may require some missed time. Looks like a break down to me. The good news in Hightower looked active and blocked a pass to be part of a 3 and out. This particular series was critical as it helped to shatter Indy's hopes and dreams of a shootout. Jones' pass rush is a critical part of the pass defense, if he is down for any length of time it could be an issue. After 1 week this answer is incomplete.
- Will the tackling improve? I watched in horror as the Indy ground game gained huge chunks of yards in the first quarter as tacklers did their best Goofy on roller skates impression. But they tightened it up the rest of the game. Will give them a yes.
"About Defensive Real Quarterback Rating. We introduced Real Quarterback Rating and Defensive Real Quarterback Rating before the 2011 season as a way to quantify all aspect of QB play. It's been a TOTAL score behind your wildest dreams. Teams better in Real QB Rating in 2011 went an incredible 223-33 (.871), proving that winning in the NFL is almost always about more efficient play at the QB position. -SNIP- Real Defensive Quarterback Rating measures how opposing quarterbacks perform against a given team not just passing, but also rushing. It also takes into account fumbles, rushes, rushing yards and sack stats to produce a new kind of rating that measures an opposing quarterback's overall performance with the ball, not just as a passer when he actually releases the ball (which is all that passer rating currently measures)."
After week 11 the Pats DRQBR was at a mediocre 22nd ranked score of 85.54. After the Colts game they are now in the exceptionally ordinary position of 18th in the league at 81.82. Hey, it's an 4% improvement. Baby steps to the quarterback, baby steps to tight coverage, baby steps to making a tackle. 4% is better than nothing. Then again right now the Patriots D is cooked spinach on my kids plate. 4% better than 'NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO I WILL NEVER EAT THIS!' is this far from total crap. So what about the competition?
With identical 6-3 records coming into this game the teams seemed somewhat evenly matched, with ballyhooed rookie QB Andrew Luck supposedly presenting a challenge to the pass defense. The general consensus, as seen in this Peter King piece, was that Luck would have a good day as long as he did't turn it over. We all know what happened. A couple of pick 6s will ruin anyone's day. The truth is Indy was a poor passing offense. After Week 11 Luck and Co had a RQBR score of 76.02, good for 22nd in the NFL. After playing the Patriots there are now at 73.63 and stand 24th. In other words the Indy passing offense is worse than another Family Guy time machine episode.
The Pats gave us a little sniff, a few pills pushed across the table instead of a full bottle. The pass defense is improving. Talib talked about getting comfortable and I'm optimistic he will improve. Even with Jones out Ninkovich picked up the pressure on the passer. Unfortunately they face the Jets this week, they of the 29th ranked RQBR score of 65.52. The Colts will look like Soda Popinski compared to the Glass Joe Jets on Thanksgiving night. Let's hope they can show incremental improvement again until the real tests in Weeks 14 and 15 against the Texans and 49ers.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Friday, November 16, 2012
AL MVP-SABR Old School Hold Hands Edition
As a Sox fan trying to look forward rather than back (embracing 'there's always next year' fits like an old shoe, stinky yet comfortable), I've paid less than a little attention to the post season awards. But when I pull up Grantland's About Last Night blog post and read things like "Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera won the AL MVP award, beating out Angels rookie Mike Trout by a healthy margin. And now it's time for the ANGRY OLD SPORTSWRITER! "Look, I know all you stat nerds out there are going 'Wahhh, wahhh, Trout should have won because he has a higher WAR.' You know what I think of that? HAR. As in HARDY HAR-HAR, morons. There's so much Trout love going around that I think the sports world is full of bears. And guess what? Bears eat salmon, so you're wrong there, too. Get a grip. Miguel Cabrera won a Triple Crown, you sniveling little Adlai Stevensons. " I get intrigued. My morning Boston Globe view found this Eric Wilbur raging piece on a raging Keith Law, and with all the vitriol seen on Twitter I wondered what I actually thought about this race.
In the WAR battle it's Trout all over Miggy, 10.7 to 7.4. That's a big win. But Miggy did win the AL Triple Crown for the first time since Yaz in 1967, and I'm unabashedly a baseball history romantic, which is why it's taken me so long to stop worrying and love the steroid era. From Wilbur's piece and sports talk radio the last day or so I got the idea that Miggy was better than Trout the last month of the season and the Tigers made the playoffs and Angels didn't, so that's where I went, and here's what I found.
I compared the stats over the last 31 days for each player, which gives a starting date of 8/31 for Miggy and 8/30 for Trout. Thanks to BaseballHQ this is what I found:
At Bats Runs Hits HR RBI SB OPS
Trout 101 22 31 5 9 7 .932
Cabrera 108 22 35 11 28 0 1.067
That's crunch time in major league baseball, and even though Trout is a leadoff hitter, thus not in a position or asked to drive in runs, he had an outstanding last month. Now some context, where was each team in the standings and what ended up happening.
Team Angels 8/30/12 Tigers 8/31/12
Record 69-62 70-61
Games Back Wild Card 3.5 3
Games Back Division 8.5 2
Record Final 31 Games 20-11 18-13
Final Stadings 4 Back Wild Card Division Champ
Well isn't that interesting. The Angels killed it over the last month but finished third in the tough AL West while the Tigers beat out a fading White Sox to win the AL Central. What about the players around them? I'll keep it simple with teammate OPS numbers for the last month.
Trout's more or less lineup: 1. Trout .932 2. Hunter .899 3. Pujols .734 4. Morales .878 5. Trumbo .586 6. Kendrick .671 6. Wells .687 7. Izturis .550 8. Callaspo .699 9. Iannetta .601
Cabrera's more or less lineup 1. Jackson .742 2. Dirks .769 2. Raburn .393 3. Miggy 1.067 4. Fielder .584 5. Young .533 6. Boesch .461 7. Peralta .505 8. Berry .529 9. Avila .759
Cabrera had a much more fluid lineup. There were some other ABs to be had in the Angles lineup but not nearly as much of a revolving door as the Tigers. I began with the Angels lineup and saw how much better Trout was than the rest and thought this would nail it for him, then I got to the Tigers. Cabrera had a much more rag-tag group around him. Cabrera had 6 players around him at any time with sub .600 OPSs, Trout's team only had 2 sub .600 regulars.
All things considered, Trout did have an outstanding season and last month in crunch time, but Miggy had an otherworldly last month with a significantly weaker lineup around him. I believe in clutch, Big Papi in 2004 made it so. Trout was clutch, but Triple Crown Winner Cabrera was as much of a one man show as one player in a 9 player lineup can be when it counted the most. It doesn't knock Trout down a peg, it just lifts Cabrera up. There's no need for name calling or pitting new wave against classic rock, they both had incredible years any way you slice it, but Cabrera was the right choice.
Until next time,
The SAHD
In the WAR battle it's Trout all over Miggy, 10.7 to 7.4. That's a big win. But Miggy did win the AL Triple Crown for the first time since Yaz in 1967, and I'm unabashedly a baseball history romantic, which is why it's taken me so long to stop worrying and love the steroid era. From Wilbur's piece and sports talk radio the last day or so I got the idea that Miggy was better than Trout the last month of the season and the Tigers made the playoffs and Angels didn't, so that's where I went, and here's what I found.
I compared the stats over the last 31 days for each player, which gives a starting date of 8/31 for Miggy and 8/30 for Trout. Thanks to BaseballHQ this is what I found:
At Bats Runs Hits HR RBI SB OPS
Trout 101 22 31 5 9 7 .932
Cabrera 108 22 35 11 28 0 1.067
That's crunch time in major league baseball, and even though Trout is a leadoff hitter, thus not in a position or asked to drive in runs, he had an outstanding last month. Now some context, where was each team in the standings and what ended up happening.
Team Angels 8/30/12 Tigers 8/31/12
Record 69-62 70-61
Games Back Wild Card 3.5 3
Games Back Division 8.5 2
Record Final 31 Games 20-11 18-13
Final Stadings 4 Back Wild Card Division Champ
Well isn't that interesting. The Angels killed it over the last month but finished third in the tough AL West while the Tigers beat out a fading White Sox to win the AL Central. What about the players around them? I'll keep it simple with teammate OPS numbers for the last month.
Trout's more or less lineup: 1. Trout .932 2. Hunter .899 3. Pujols .734 4. Morales .878 5. Trumbo .586 6. Kendrick .671 6. Wells .687 7. Izturis .550 8. Callaspo .699 9. Iannetta .601
Cabrera's more or less lineup 1. Jackson .742 2. Dirks .769 2. Raburn .393 3. Miggy 1.067 4. Fielder .584 5. Young .533 6. Boesch .461 7. Peralta .505 8. Berry .529 9. Avila .759
Cabrera had a much more fluid lineup. There were some other ABs to be had in the Angles lineup but not nearly as much of a revolving door as the Tigers. I began with the Angels lineup and saw how much better Trout was than the rest and thought this would nail it for him, then I got to the Tigers. Cabrera had a much more rag-tag group around him. Cabrera had 6 players around him at any time with sub .600 OPSs, Trout's team only had 2 sub .600 regulars.
All things considered, Trout did have an outstanding season and last month in crunch time, but Miggy had an otherworldly last month with a significantly weaker lineup around him. I believe in clutch, Big Papi in 2004 made it so. Trout was clutch, but Triple Crown Winner Cabrera was as much of a one man show as one player in a 9 player lineup can be when it counted the most. It doesn't knock Trout down a peg, it just lifts Cabrera up. There's no need for name calling or pitting new wave against classic rock, they both had incredible years any way you slice it, but Cabrera was the right choice.
Until next time,
The SAHD
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