Shaky Aces Edition

The Red Sox just got swept in Texas.  Thankfully after that they're still 20-11, which according to most is still good enough to have the most wins in the AL right now.  On the heels of all the irrational exuberance surrounding the Celtics before they got thrashed by an incredibly crappy Knicks team that allowed a 20-0 run in the 4th quarter and still won easily I'm surprised.  There's more Dukes around here than a Dukes of Hazzard celebration on CMT.  The lesson of course is it's a long season in the MLB and we Sox fans should be much more hearty and bitter than those Green Teamers who are crying in their Pierce/Garnett replica jersey's right now.

Usually I like to see the world in Sox colored glasses but while I have faith in his talent I'm not feeling great about Clay Buchholz's ability to rise above the fray and not wilt under the pressure of spitball gate.  If he has been cheating well blow it off and keep doing it son!  If not please tell me your head is on straight and why oh why it's been since your no-no on 9/1/07 since I've felt this good about your stuff.  And speaking of supposed Red Sox Aces where'd the no more complaining for Jon Lester guy go?  I watch the games Mr. Bradford, and neither you nor Mr. Lester can convince me he's found religion.  He talked like a good soldier of John Farrell's Jaw but the last few starts he's been his old whiny self.  First four starts - 26 IP, 1.73 ERA.  Last three starts - 17.2 IP, 5.61 ERA.  Lot's of this face lately:

Until next time,

The SAHD

Not Lockdown, Boston Strong Edition

I was at Fenway Park for the annual 11 AM start on Patriots Day.  It's been a bit of a hard road for me the last few months but sitting there, hearing the cheering for the runners giving their all in the Boston Marathon from my seat, having the majesty of Fenway in front of me for the first time in a long time, and reveling in a perfect spring Boston day I felt the light shake away my cobwebs and inspiration to post here struck again.  And then...horror.

Not until I was in my car and driving home from the game did I hear of the two heinous bombs going off at the finish line of the Boston Marathon.  Yes, I know the spot of road I was on when I heard it, knowing that it was very likely my train was going underneath that part of Boylston when the all hell broke loose.  Numbness, that all too familiar feeling cultivated in the crucible of 9/11, darkness fell.  This time it was our turn to be attacked, and the pain and anger spiked with a different kind of intensity.  Our holiday, our spectacular civic celebration of the human spirit, charity, endurance, and even provincial spirit had a hole torn through the middle of it.  This was personal.  Krystle Campbell, Lingzi Lu, Martin Lawrence.  Severed limbs, bombs made to maim and destroy life, living hell incarnate.

But from the carnage the strength of our city peeked through; the wonderful emergency response and spirit of our race as people ran selflessly into the fire instead of away (shades of the NYPD and NYFD) and runners kept running to the hospital to donate blood.  The countless old New England straight thinkers using lessons learned from the middle east applying life saving simple turn-a-kits. Carlos Arrendondo.  So very many stories of strength and fight and compassion and help heard that very first day, with many many more to come.  And even as the smile of a beautiful eight year old little boy became the face of the tragedy broke our hearts over and over a wave of giving began.  Fund raising is in our DNA, the Jimmy Fund and Dana Farber cancer research, the Pan Mass Challenge, the Boston freakin Marathon, and now victim survivor funds.  Sure there have been frauds, but many more legit enterprises have already raised millions for those in need with more coming in every day.  The greatest performance of our national anthem.  #Bostonstrong.

Then the FBI showed us their pictures, and insurgent warfare broke out from Cambridge to Watertown and blood ran through streets that have seen so much colonial blood in the past.  Lockdown.  The cops locked us down and as one we were terrified by the gunfire and homemade grenades going off but determined to get a job done.  Some mocked us, but we believed in our law enforcement and thought with our heads instead of an itchy trigger finger and made the best of it.  We played with our kids, prayed for our friends in the towns on the front lines, and maybe had a drinking game or two on the different facial expressions shown by the Boston Police Commissioner during his pressers.  When they lifted the ban and told us to be vigilant we were, and of course a boat owner brought an end to the siege.  Steven Colbert said it with laughter, I'll say it with feeling; I'm proud to be part of this hard-ass community.  We might ride silently shoulder to shoulder on the morning train but when the chips are down we've proven we'll be there no matter what. That's Boston Strong.

And have you noticed the Red Sox have won seven in a row and are playing like a band of brothers?  More on that later.

Until next time,

-The SAHD

Pat's Pass D Almost Good Enough - CHFF Edition

Several weeks ago I began my weekly inspection of the Patriots pass defense with a comparison to the 2006 Colts as a blueprint.  That team ended the season with #19th ranked pass defense, and I posited for this Patriots team to have a chance to win the Super Bowl they would have to improve weekly as they were in the bottom third of the league in Cold Hard Football Facts' proprietary Defensive Real Quarterback Rating (DRQBR).  The Patriots offense is still humming along at #2 in the CHFF's own Real Quarterback Rating (RQBR).  How's the defense doing?

Moving up in the rankings has been slow going since the Patriots were facing such patsies from week 11 through now(rankings at the time the Patriots played them): Indianapolis - #22nd ranked RQBR, Jets - #29th ranked RQBR, Dolphins - #26th ranked RQBR.  But Belichicks Bullies have had a slow and steady rise in the DRQBR since week 11, from 22nd 85.54 to a current standing of 16th 80.11.  In short, the Pats took care of business, which is more of an accomplishment than the current media would have you believe in this Any Given Sunday NFL.

This week begins the two biggest games of the season.  Houston's #7th ranked 88.52 RQBR & San Francisco's #4 ranked 93.78.  Despite the Alex Smith drama the facts remains that San Fran has maintained its ranking from #5 the week Kaepernick took over to #4 now.  While Paul Perillo of patriots.com or Felger & Mazz continue to see this team as too flawed or lucky,  the Patriots have looked promising over the past few weeks and continue to improve their pass defense.  Houston and San Francisco present significant challenges to this pass d and if the Patriots hold them down it portends very well for the playoffs.

As for individuals I've been tracking Aquib Talib isn't standing out, nor is Dont'a Hightower, but even the smell test says this defense is getting better.  As for Chandler Jones there was more hard hitting observation of him attending the team walkthrough yesterday.  I'm not beating on the reporting per say, they only get what the Patriots give them, but again I plead for a little private investigator hiring.  Help the economy and get better stories, who looses?!

Remember folks, this is an improving pass defense.  Even if Houston wins on Monday the tell for the playoffs will be how the opposing QB looks.  If Foster and Co run all day and Shaub doesn't do much that's a great sign win or loose.

Until next time,

The SAHD

Red Sox Winter Meetings White Whale Edition

It was Herman Melville who penned:

"There is one knows not what sweet mystery about this sea, whose gently awful stirrings seem to speak of some hidden soul beneath. "

Well Herman for me it is not the sea that is that sweet mystery, it is my own White Whale, an Ace starting pitcher for my beloved Red Sox.  And what Ace has been bandied about by such baseball reporting luminaries as Buster Olney?  David Taylor Price of those plucky Tampa Bay Rays.  Yes, that David Price, who will soon be pitching in his age 27 season and the reigning AL Cy Young award winner.  He is at the pinnacle of his trade value, but he is also the rarest of possibilities, an undeniable Ace available at the beginning of his peak.  Price is not nearly the postseason hero Josh Beckett was when he was traded to the Red Sox, but how does he compare to the last big trade made by the Sox for a starter?  Let's see what baseball reference and Baseball HQ have to say about the 4 years prior to a trade or potential trade:

                                   David Price                       Josh Beckett

GB% Trend               41-44-44-53                       37-47-45-43
K/9 Trend               7.2-8.1-8.7-8.7                    9.4-9.6-8.7-8.4
WHIP Trend       1.35-1.19-1.14-1.10            1.27-1.32-1.22-1.18
K/BB Trend        1.89-2.38-3.46-3.47            2.57-2.71-2.81-2.86

Beckett stuck out more, but Price gets more groundballs, walks less, and strikes out almost as much.  Price also has a clear upward trend, whereas Beckett was more of a rollercoaster.  Price is the better pitcher.

Back in the day the Sox had to give up their #1 prospect, SS Hanley Ramirez, along with Anibal Sanchez, current best starter on the free agent market not named Zack Greinke, for Beckett.  Once again the Red Sox top prospect is a Dominican shortstop, this time with a name out of a Tolkein novel, Xavier Bogaerts.  And like some softly spoken spell whispered by Gandolph this prospect is accompanied by mysticism and wonder.  Every Fenway fan knows the Sox have been a black hole at shortstop since the salad days of Nomar.  We tend to get emotional about great looking young shortstops who can hit with power, but a cooler head such as Jim Callis from Baseball America told Alex Speier of WEEI that Bogaerts isn't quite Hanley Ramirez.  Callis also detailed the Red Sox 10th best prospect, SS Deven Marrero, who is seen as a good defender with a solid bat and on base skills, so Bogaerts isn't the only hope beyond the no-hit Iglesias.

Back before PED testing and punishment was a total joke the Red Sox needed a one two punch of Manny and Papi along with a great rotation to compete  Now more than ever it is starting pitching that matters, as witnessed by the 2012 San Francisco Giants, and a rotation anchored by Price, with Lester and Buccholz slotted down to the 2 and 3 spots, would be formidable.  Combined with the lineup of Ellsbury and Pedroia and Papi it would be more than enough to compete for a World Series.  I wouldn't trade starting pitching for a bat, and I wouldn't trade Bogaerts for anyone other than a true Ace, but Price is worth it. Bogaerts wouldn't be enough, more players would be involved, but as Olney wrote it would have to start there and I believe this should be Cherington's #1 priority this week at the MLB winter meetings.

Until next time,

The SAHD

Hanson Not Traded To Red Sox Ridiculous! Edition

I thought the Hot Stove was cooking pretty good before, now something's got me steaming mad!  Tommy Hanson, erstwhile Ace of the Atlanta Braves, was just traded to the LA Angels for RP Jordan Walden.  The Braves are going to use Walden in the middle innings because they have the best closer in the game in young Craig Kimbrel.  I argued against trading for a guy like Josh Johnson a few weeks ago because he was at the tail end of his prime years, and trading for a guy like Pedro because his best years were ahead of him.  Let's stack up Hanson compared to those two in the first four years of their careers with baseball references WAR:

Name:            Hanson      Pedro       Johnson    

Age/WAR         22/3.7          22/2.2         22/3.0      
                         23/2.6          23/4.5         23/-.6        
                         24/1.2          24/3.8         24/1.9      
                         25/-.9          25/8.7         25/6.4      

Pedro is on another plain, but through 3 years Hanson had 7.5 WAR, Johnson had 4.3. The difference is Hanson tanked in year 4 while the other two took off.  Hanson had a bad year last year, concussing himself by crashing his car in February then he had a back strain that put him on the DL in July.  He also had a shoulder strain in 2011.  His WAR is in a clear downward trend but this is not the type of guy you just let slip through your fingers. This guy has huge potential and The Angels gave up their out of no where closer to get him. The Sox couldn't top that jazz? How about a finer look at Hanson:

Age              22        23          24          25

Innings        127.2   202.2     130.0      174.2
WHIP          1.183   1.174     1.169      1.454
HR/9           .7          .6           1.2          1.4
K/9              8.2        7.7         9.8          8.3
K/BB           2.52     3.09       3.09        2.27

He lost some control lost year resulting in the lower K/BB and WHIP and higher HR/9 but his K/9 was great and I'm almost shocked the Braves didn't shop him for more or the Red Sox let this happen without a serious offer.  All I can do is shake my head sometimes.

Until next time,

The SAHD

Hot Stove Bats To Covet For Sox Edition

As Rob Bradford writes Big Papi opined that the Sox 'need some thunder in that lineup' on WEEI's Hot Stove.  As usual Papi put the focus on his self importance, but his point is somewhat valid.  I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say by thunder he means homers and on base ability.  I am convinced we all got so spoiled by those 4 hour games of guys working the count over and over that watching Daisuke 'I have a million free private flights in my contract, I've got time' Matsuzaka pitch pushed us all over the edge and we took our eyes off the ball.  We started listening to the media complain about late nights, to Francona and Gonzalez whine about the schedule, and to our own desire to get an extra hour back in our lives.  Is it about winning, or is it about comfort?  Tell us Charlie.

A couple of weeks ago I looked into the battle between Mike Napoli and Adam LaRoche. End result, LaRoche in a close but clear win.  Now it appears the Nats have chosen Denard Span over LaRoche and Davey Johnson is trying an end around at his golf tournament to get LaRoche back.  There's also chatter about the Nats going after Greinke, the best starting pitcher in the market.  As a Sox fan I hope the Nats drive dump trucks full of money up to Greinke's house and leave LaRoche for the picking.  This would be good for both the Sox and the Nats, whose fanbase just got Soxified in last year's playoffs and I feel a real connection to them.  It is a universal fact, nothing brings people together like sports misery and heartbreak.  Despite yesterdays rumor that the Sox were after Napoli, Cody Ross, and Nick Swisher it seems fairly clear now what the best path could be, assuming contracts don't get insane.  The Sox already signed the right handed hitting, lefty pitching mashing, good clubhouse presence guy Johnny Gomes.  I'm forced to pause and point out they gave this guy two years at $5 Million per.  Time to talk to myself "It's ok SAHD, it's just a part time player getting big money for a short time, short term contracts, short term contracts, dooo dooo doo dooo doo dooo dooo." Cody Ross, you position has been filled.  Now if they can grab LaRoche, Swisher appears to be next. What about the Swishmeister?  The old Baseball HQ treatment:


Nick Swisher Age 31     GB% FB% HR/F% OBA  HR   OPS

2009                               38      46     17        .371   29    .869
2010                               36      45     15        .354   29    .865
2011                               39      39     14        .374   23    .822
2012                               39      39     15        .363   24    .836


There is more consistency in Swisher's game than either LaRoche or Napoli, but troubling signs as well.  The fly ball decline with a ground ball increase is ominous. Thankfully his on base skills are intact and perhaps his fly ball swing will come back with the Green Monstah to shoot for.  He's a switch hitter which would help to even out the lineup, and another clubhouse guy in the mold of Millar.  Seems promising, but lets feed these guys into the baseball reference WAR machine from 2009-2012:


Name:            Swisher     LaRoche       Napoli      Ross

Age/WAR         28/1.7          29/2.2         27/2.7        28/2.2
                         29/3.4          30/0.9         28/1.7        29/1.6
                         30/1.5          31/-.3         29/5.3        30/-.1
                         31/3.5          32/4.0         30/1.4        31/1.6

This adds a little context to the stats, as witnessed in my argument to sign B.J. Upton instead of Josh Hamilton if a big money deal had to be made.  A 3.0 or better is a solid everyday player, and as you can see there isn't a totally solid one among them.  Swisher comes the closest which is why he'll get the most money and why, despite my reservations about his power going forward, I would support the Sox inking him.  As for Napoli and LaRoche, I believe LaRoche's 2010-2011 seasons were marred by injury and being traded around like a Greg Jeffries' Score rookie card in Mr. Smith's homeroom in 1989.  His 4.0 WAR last year is supported by solid underlying skills of power, on base, and defense at first although that is only a small part.  Napoli's 5.3 in 2011 was driven by an unsustainable .412 on base thanks to raising ground balls and falling fly balls.  As for Ross, well even among this motley crew he doesn't quite make it.  Total 4 year WAR: Swisher 10.1, LaRoche 6.8, Napoli 11.1, Ross 5.3.

All that being said I would still sign up for Hamilton for three years.  Too bad that's more of a LSD trip than Woodstock.  They head to the General Manger's meetings in Nashville next week and if a GM can feel comfortable with 3 years you better believe there's another who will put up 5.  If the haul is Swisher, LaRoche, and a Carlos Villanueva or Francisco Liriano for the rotation I'll be happy.  And maybe, just maybe, they can do a deal for a good to great starter centered around Allen Webster.

Until next time,

The SAHD

Hot Stove Sizzlin' - Starting Pitching Edition

My hot stove wheels are spinning out of control!  Napoli AND Swisher AND C Ross OH MY! And on MLB Hot Stove this morning Matt Vasgersian suggested a couple of guys sitting in a bar and sharing scotch was a better way to consummate trades than (in a whiny condescending voice) guys talking about this guys' OBP and this guys' WAR. Good thing MLB redeemed him with his Rush 'Fly By Night' call of a Padres home run against the DBacks in 2004.  Jackass.  And there was of course the flurry of activity surrounding the jaw dropping rumored Jon Lester for Wil Myers trade with the King Me Royals.  Rather than thinking about why it might or might not work I was wondering why the Red Sox would even consider this.  Starting pitching is It right?  Lester hasn't developed into an Ace but he's still pretty good, is big minor league power really worth a solid #2 pitcher in the AL East?  Are the Sox sitting on close to ready high quality starters in their system to compliment the mint that could be spent on the three amigos for the lineup?

To find out I decided to stack up a few minor league pitchers with a recent superstar brought up fairly quickly from the minors to great fanfare: Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nats.  I use him because he can help to qualify the quality of our guys and he's a nice high rung to shoot for.  I'm using Innings, WHIP (Walks + Hits/Innings), Home Runs per 9 innings allowed, strikeouts (K) per 9 innings pitched, and strikeouts per walks (BB).  I leave out ERA because it's such a limited stat, and wins and losses because they are way beyond the starting pitcher's control.  Innings show durability or red flags for the future, WHIP shows how much a pitcher controls a game, HR/9 shows how the pitcher keeps the ball in the yard, K/9 shows dominance, and K/BB piggybacks on WHIP to give texture to the precept that if you strike guys out and don't walk them you are going places my son. I'll list ages and minor league levels for each pitcher, so you know the progression is FRK, RK, A, A+, AA, AAA, Majors.

Strasburg

Age/Lg             Innings  WHIP  HR/9  K/9  K/BB
21-AA/AAA        55.1     .795     .2     10.6    5
22-A/AA/AAA     20.1     .836     .4     12.8    9.67
21-Majors          68.0   1.074     .7     12.2    5.41
22-Majors          24.0     .708     -       9        12
23-Majors        159.1   1.155     .8     11.1    4.1

Strasburg is a special case.  He was a consensus #1 overall choice in the MLB draft, a college pitcher, and rushed to the Majors.  His time between majors and minors has been because of Tommy John surgery.  He was rushed because he's a phenom and because the Nationals needed to get fans to the ballpark.  The Red Sox don't have anyone just like him, but do they have anything close?  The number 1 guy in terms of potential is Matt Barnes.  Like Strasburg he was a college pitcher and drafted by the Sox in 2011.

Barnes

Age/Lg             Innings  WHIP  HR/9  K/9  K/BB
22-A                  26.2       .600     -      14.2  10.5
22-A+                93        1.183    .6      8.8    3.64
22-Total            119.2    1.053    .5     10.3  4.59

Barnes showed he had nothing to prove in A ball, if Strasburg had graced A ball with his presence he would've dominated even more than Barnes by the way, so the Sox moved him up a level.  Overall a very successful year, but he will only be in the Majors next year for one reason: he goes to AA and dominates like he did in A ball for a couple of months and forces their hand.  Even then he'll only go around 150 innings total, instead of the 200+ required by major league starters, because jumping innings can be a danger to your health. So I was right on Pineda but wrong about Kuroda, curse you Kuroda! Barnes has awesome potential but he's not there quite yet.  What about those boys from the Dodgers, Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa?  Both were high school or equivalent when drafted and have been around a lot longer than Barnes.

Webster

Age/Lg             Innings  WHIP  HR/9  K/9  K/BB
18-Rk                18.1     1.582    .5      6.4     .76
19-Rk                68.2     1.102    .1    10.1   4.28
20-A                 131.1    1.310    .4      7.8   2.15
21-A+/AA          145       1.407    .6     8.4    2.37
22-AA               130.2    1.485    .1      8.9   2.11

De La Rosa (Age 18 & 23 Majors stats left out due to <10 Innings Pitched)

Age/Lg             Innings  WHIP  HR/9  K/9  K/BB
19-FRK             47.1     1.162     -       9.7   2.43
20-RK               16.1     1.714     -       12.1   2
21-A/AA           110.1     1.133    .3      7.7   2.47
22-AA                40        1.225    .2     11.7  2.74
23-RK/A/AA       13         .923     -        9       3
22-Majors          60.2     1.401    .9       8.9  1.94

With Webster we see a pitcher who is walking more and more batters.  While he is closer to the Majors than Barnes he looks much more like a #3 than a #2 and certainly not an Ace.  It hurts to say but his upside looks to be the 2007 version of Daisuke, hopefully without the 4 hour game times.  Pretty good, but that's only if he continues to increase his K/9 and cuts down the walks.  A tall order, and AAA looks like the best bet to see if that's in the cards for him next year.  De La Rosa is intriguing.  Another victim of inning jumps (+94 from Age 20 to 21), he went through Tommy John and is just getting back.  He should be ready by spring training, but his walks and homers given up at age 22 in the Majors are concerning.  He's more dominant than Webster, thus a better bet to reach #2 status, but that appears to be his ceiling.  The Sox could use him in the bullpen but that's a waste of potential.  De La Rosa could fit in Dubrount style as the  #5, but expecting anything more than 110-130 innings would be asking for trouble.

After doing this study I have to admit the haul from the Dodgers wasn't a major coup, but it certainly provides the Sox with options.  Those options, however, should not be to trade a quality major league starter like Jon Lester.  The trade should be of Webster or De La Rosa for major league ready or established starting pitching.  Because if they sign Swisher, Ross and Napoli they will sprint down the same road they were on before The Purge if they have to sign 2 starting pitchers in free agency as well.  Please, no more Vader.

Until next time,

The SAHD