Taking Down The New Yankee Starters Edition

The Yankee additions of Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda have been greeted with universal applause.  In light of the Red Sox current starting shortstop black hole and rotation issues this Blog took a stab at taking down the fearsome twosome.  To whit:

Hiroki Kuroda-The Japanese sensation has put up an impressive record with the Los Angelas Dodgers since arriving in 2008.  With a career 3.45 ERA he's been one of the most underrated starters in the NL.  But he's no longer in the NL is he?  Over his time in the majors he's pitched 62.1 innings in interleague games against the AL, for somewhere between 9 and 11games.  Over those games his ERA has been 4.33.  Furthermore, he played his home games in Dodgers Stadium, which has a Park Factor of .936.  Park Factor is a stat that compares scoring in MLB stadiums.  Generally under 1 favors the pitcher, over 1 favors the hitter.  Yankee Stadium is playing with a Park Factor of 1.131.  He's going from the 9th best Park for pitchers to the 6th best for hitters.  That's a big swing.  What's this add up to?  I don't doubt he'll continue to be a workhorse, he's averaging 202 innings a year, but this Blog sees an average AL 3rd starter who's never faced the iron of the AL East on a regular basis.

Michael Pineda-This young buck arguably was the best under 23 starter in the majors last season, with an ERA of 3.74 and a WHIP of 1.10 with 173 Ks and a 9-10 record for the 67-95 Seattle Mariners.  For him this Blog leans on the Verducci Effect.  This stat was popularized by the venerated Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated.  It states that pitchers under the age of 25 who increase their workload by 30 innings of more tend to break down or under-perform the following season.  Pineda is 23 years old.  In the minors in 2010 he pitched 139 innings.  In the majors in 2011 he pitched 171 innings.  Uh oh, that's an increase of 32 innings.  Touchdown Verducci Effect!  As for Park Factor, his home park with the Mariners was Safeco Field, coming in at a solid 5th best Park for pitchers.  Yankee Stadium not so much.

So take that Yankee fans.  You might not dream of the days of Freddie Garcia and Bartolo Colon, but Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte aren't walking through that door.  Now if only the Red Sox had a solid #3 starter.

Until next time,

The SAHD