Now that the Bruins have broken the 21 game home winning streak by the St. Louis Blues this Blog can relax and get back to spring training. This morning the ever calm and reasonable Daniel Bard, who is in the process of attempting to switch from a reliever to a starter, joined Dennis and Callahan on WEEI. He spoke of the night and day difference between Francona and Valentine. He spoke of the wear and tear on relievers arms and how it compares favorably to the wear and tear on starters arms. He spoke of the Melas Chasma sized gap between what starters and relievers earn. He spoke of C.J. Wilson.
In 2010 C.J. Wilson made the transition from relieving to starting. Wilson was the closer for the Texas Rangers while Bard was the eighth inning guy for Boston, but this Blog sees the roles as comparable. Here is a side by side comparison of the two players at the time of the switch:
Age MLB Innings ERA K/9 WHIP Ground Ball %
Wilson 28 280.2 4.30 8.4 1.41 52%
Bard 27 197.0 2.88 9.7 1.06 47%
Wilson had pitched 84 more innings, but otherwise is a vastly inferior pitcher to Bard. Bard's ERA is almost a run and a half less, he strikes out over a batter more per 9, and is much much harder to hit as indicated by the WHIP difference. Wilson has an edge in GB%, but the major league average for a starter is somewhere around 45% so Bard fits the bill there and his dominance in WHIP, ERA and K/9 more than outweigh the GB% advantage.
Wilson jumped 130.1 innings in his first year as a starter, going 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA, a 1.245 WHIP, a 7.5 K/9 and a GB% of 49% in 204 IP. Daniel Bard could have a problem with the innings considering how many less he has pitched in comparison to Wilson, but he is at a peak age for pitchers and his experience is enough that the odds are lower he will have an innings cap. Bard does not have an injury history, and while projecting a 200+ inning season might be stretching it Bard seems a very solid bet to be a solid #4 starter this year and possibly much more. This Blog sees Bard, with much better pure 'stuff' than Wilson, having an ERA around 3.00 with a WHIP between 1.1 and 1.2 and K/9 in the 9.0 area in 180+ innings. If he does that he's the best #4 in the game. High hopes? Sure, but it's 50 degrees in the Boston area, springtime is in the air, and Bard has done incredible things before (past three years declining WHIP, declining BB/9, to top tiers of major league pitching).
Until next time,
The SAHD
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