So the Sox and David Ortiz are down to the deadline of arbitration today. Papi is asking for $16.5 million and the Sox are offering a slight raise from last year's salary to $12.65 million. Get ready, this Blog is about to get its stat geek on. FanGraphs has a convoluted yet valuable stat called Wins Above Replacement. This stat tries to compare players based on the whole picture, offense, defense and base running for the non pitchers. It has become fairly well accepted in the baseball analyst community and one can get all the ins and outs by clicking the link above. This Blog ran a report for total WAR over the past three seasons, and here are the results:
Papi comes out at an even 7.0, meaning he's been worth 7 wins more than an average replacement over that same time. Pretty good, after all 7 games even spread over three seasons can mean the difference between making the playoffs and not (the nightmare of that three minute span on 9/28/11 still linger). The ten players just behind Papi are Coco Crisp 7.0, Brendan Ryan 7.0, Kurt Suzuki 7.0, Billy Butler 6.9, Austin Jackson 6.9, Chone Figgins 6.9, Carlos Pena 6.8, Michael Cuddyer 6.8, Juan Uribe 6.6, Maicer Izturis 6.5. The ten just ahead of him are Johnny Peralta 7.1, Jason Bay 7.1, Alex Gordon 7.1, Nick Markakis 7.2, Alberto Callaspo 7.3, Adam Jones 7.3, Matt Wieters 7.4, Russell Martin 7.4, Asdrubal Cabrera 7.6. This is a pretty eclectic group but also puts Papi's contributions to the Sox in some perspective, some slick fielding average batting speedy outfielders, some solid catchers, an up and coming Papi like guy in Billy Butler, another aging slugger in Jason Bay, a postseason hero in Juan Uribe, a couple of above average shortstops in Peralta and Cabrera. It's a cringe-worthy view, but at $16.5 million Papi would rank fourth on the Red Sox this year. Given his age of 36, which coming from the Dominican Republic has to be taken with a grain of salt, and the universe of players he's grouped in here, this Blog thinks Papi @ $12.65 is more than fair. Sure, he's been one of if not THE clutch hitter in the history of the team, his performance in the 2004 ALCS was sublime, and he's been a great guy to boot. But lately he's had some pretty bad starts to the season, notwithstanding last year, and he's been seen as one of the mainstays of a group that's failed rather spectacularly in the playoffs the last several years and pulled an all-time choke job last year. Oh yeah, and he acted like a three year old throwing a hissy fit by thrusting himself into the middle of one of Francona's post game pressers over a disputed RBI. It all adds up to an aging player more interested in stats than the team who has a 30% shot to repeat his performance from last year from this perspective. That's no $16.5 million player.
And finally, at a point this morning a back and forth switch between The Sports Hub and WEEI found the speakers blaring some variation of the phrase 'kick ass' for a solid 5 minute period. Brought to mind the wonderful ass kicking heroics of Bruce Campbell's 'Ash' in Army of Darkness (warning, harsh language!).
Until next time,
The SAHD
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