With all the Red Sox spring training anticipation one would think the SAHD would crank up the 'Bobby V is a hard charging take no prisoners work 'em till they sweat' machine. Instead Clay Buchholz occupies the brain. After being in the right field stands for Buchholz's no-hitter in his second career start in 2007, this Blog expected a lot of the young pup with the wicked hook and Pedro-like changeup. Two years ago he went 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA and seemed to be on his way, then came a stress fracture in his back last year and this Blog is left to wonder if he can be a solid #2/#3 this coming season.
If words mean anything this guy is turning into the rock of the starting staff. So far he's spoken of how the team can benefit from Bobby V's more structured camp, sounding much more mature and hard working than the off the record grumbling we hear from other players. He's also talked openly about beer and chicken-gate, which at the very least is refreshing. Buchholz appears to have grown up in a big way, and as Yogi Berra used to say "Baseball is ninety percent mental and other half is physical." Ok then, let's take a look.
Physically Buchholz's capabilities are of a staff workhorse. He's got a lifetime strikeout per 9 innings rate of 6.9 to go with a groundball rate of over 50% for the last three years, both indicators of good to great things as far going deep in games. There are some pointing to his health as an issue, but stress fractures such as his heal very well and this Blog sees no reason to worry.
Bill James predicts 13-8 in 30 starts with a 3.53 ERA, but with peripheral stats like those mentioned above and health issues behind him this Blog easily sees an ERA closer to 3.00 and a rock in the rotation. Furthermore, he is coming into his age 27/28 season, Miller time for outstanding seasons by starting pitchers. Get ready for the Clay Buccholz love fest in Fenway, he's about to go medieval on the AL East.
Until next time,
The SAHD
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