Friday, February 24, 2012

Saltalamacchia's Next Step Edition

With Jason Varitek clearly in the rear view Boston is hitching it's wagon to Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  The guy with the name so big his shoulders will always seem small in his jersey was a one time big prospect who's finally getting his chance.  Way waaaay back in 2007 he slugged 11 homers in 308 at bats, he then went 3 in 198, 9 in 283, 0 in 24, and finally 16 in 358 last year.  Some interesting trends:

             On Base Avg     Fly Ball %    HR/F     Contact %
2007        .309                   39%         12%         76%
2008        .354                   42%          6%          63%
2009        .289                   41%         12%         66%
2011        .283                   47%         14%         67%

Fly % is the % of fly balls of all balls that a player makes contact with, regardless of the outcome.  HR/F is the number of homers per fly ball.  Contact is the % of swings that make contact of any kind on a pitched balls.  2010 isn't included in the study because it was such a small sample, only 24 ABs.  Salty's contact % is clearly more of the high sixties variety, the 76% number he put up in 2007 got people plenty excited because 80% is all top catcher territory but that's not happening.  This is a .250 type hitter.  The power is much more interesting.  His Fly Ball % shows he swinging for the fences, and with more ABs this year it's likely he will slam 20+ homers.  It's the patience that is the real question.  It appears in 2008 he attempted to be picky at the plate, got a great .354 OBA out of it, but couldn't concentrate on pitch selection and swing hard at the same time with only a 6% HR/F.  It's hard to believe by he's still only 26 years old.  For comparison Jason Varitek didn't become the full time starter for the Sox until he was 27.  It's possible Salty could figure it out and be patient and powerful.  Best case scenario appears to be a Jorge Posada type, a little better offensively that Varitek, average defensively.  This Blog signs up for that, consolidate Salty, get your patience on and swing out of your shoes.  Prediction: .250 23HR .320 OBA.

Until next time,

The SAHD

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