Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Red Sox FA Starting Pitcher Targets Edition


While I contemplate the 800lb gorilla of the Patriots 7-6 playoff record since 2005, the Red Sox have introduced their new manager, the square-jawed intimidator John Farrell.  The Red Sox starting pitching was shameful last year.  From Baseball Reference:  The Quality Start % (pitching 6 or more innings and allowing 3 runs or less) for starters was 44%, 12th out of 15 AL teams. The Innings Per Game Started was 5.7, 10th of 15 teams. The vast majority of Red Sox starters in 2012 could not or would not drag themselves to the threshold of even the most mediocre of starting pitching stats. That's not just loosing baseball, that's pampered overpaid lazy-ass starting pitcher baseball.  And with teams signing more and more of their valuable pitchers to long term deals before they hit free agency it's harder than ever to get good starting pitching without giving up the farm.

Consensus opinion is the Red Sox need a starting pitcher or two or three to add to the mix, having traded Josh Beckett, letting Daisuke's enigma float away, and having left under-performing, recently injured, and youthful staff anchors Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Felix Dubrount and John Lackey (the Lackey as a member of the rotation in 2013 talk is more disturbing than the reality that global warming is actually a debate again).  This being the case, I've found three free agent starting pitching targets I believe the Red Sox should go after.  All three are age 28, more or less in the sweetspot of their primes, and should be more reasonable than questionable, older, or bigger names like Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, or Jake Peavey.  I would include Edwin Jackson as a target but he has been on 7 teams the last 8 years and is the ripe and way too old for this group age of 29.  Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball HQ for the stats.  And now the list:

#1 Anibal Sanchez.
         
          Innings    K    K/9    WHIP    Ground Ball %    Innings/Start
2010     195    157   7.2      1.34             45%                6.1
2011     196    202   9.3      1.28             44%                6.1
2012     196    167   7.7      1.29             46%                6.3

This guy is a model of consistency.  He will no doubt cost the most money, but with his excellent ground ball and strikeout rates and innings eater ability there is a great chance he'll be worth it. The Sox should put the hard press on this guy, no doubt he will have plenty of suitors after the World Series.  Who knows, maybe he'll respond favorably considering they signed him and traded him for a playoff performing declining tub of goo. That linked story shows the Royals consider him their top free agent target.  The Royals should present no significant difficulty, right?

#2 Francisco Liriano

Liriano has been quite the enigma.  He's been a baseball comet, striking out a ton and looking unhittable.  He's gone through Tommy John surgery and been seen as a disappointment. Let's take a look at recent history:

          Innings    K    K/9    WHIP    Ground Ball %    Innings/Start
2009     137    122   8.0      1.55             40%                5.7
2010     192    201   9.4      1.26             54%                6.2
2011     134    112   7.5      1.49             49%                5.6
2012     157    167   9.6      1.47             44%                5.6

He's had some DL stints in '09 and '11, which makes him inconsistent, but his combination of ground ball tendencies and strikeout potential make him the most intriguing of this bunch.  Farrell spoke of attacking the zone with pitchers yesterday, Liriano has been there in 2010.  Can the Sox help him find that again?  I say go for it. He's at a great age, has shown tremendous ability, and won't break the bank.

#3 Carlos Villanueva

          Innings    K    K/9    WHIP    Ground Ball %    Innings/Start
2011     107    68     5.7      1.26             36%              
2012     125    122   8.8      1.27             37%                6.0

The least experienced of the three, he seems like a solid choice to compete with Dubrount for the 4th or 5th starter role.  He doesn't have the ground ball tendencies of the other two but keeps the ball in the yard and developed as a starter under our new manager in Toronto. This guy is more of a lottery ticket than the other two but a better bet than, for example, sinking $60 M into Kyle Lohse.

Sanchez will be a big signing, but Liriano has the potential to be somewhere between Bill Mueller and David Ortiz as a free agent grab.  Carlos Villanueva could be like Cody Ross. These are guys Cherington, Farrell and Co should consider if they want to spend their money wisely and develop a winner.

Until next time,

The SAHD

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

It's All Relative - Pats Still Great Edition


As I listened to the nebulous sports arguments being hoisted on those who choose to listen to the radio this morning I came more and to believe in my thought that emotion, eye tests, smell tests, Tom E Curran hand gestures or general observations are no way to get to the truth about what a football team is doing.  As a New Hampshirite might say: Give me statistics or give me death! Here again I am grateful that the self proclaimed trolls over at Cold Hard Football Facts exist.  They've concocted this beauty called the Relativity Index.  As they tell it:

             "The Relativity Index measures the performance of each team relative to 
             the performance of its opponents in all other games. Essentially, it adjusts 
             for the quality of competition each team faces, and spits out a number that 
             tells us how greatly a team overachieved, or how badly a team underachieved, 
             relative to the quality of competition. 

             For example, if Team A scores 25.0 PPG, and its opponents surrender 20 
             PPG in all of their other contests, Team A is +5.0 PPG on offense. If Team 
             A surrenders 20 PPG, and its opponents score 25 PPG in all of their other 
             contests, Team A is +5.0 on defense. This equates to a total Relativity Index 
             score of +10.0 PPG. In other words, Team A is 10 points better than the average 
             performance of its opponents."

Seems pretty Patriot-like wouldn't you say?  Chameleon defenses, taking away an opponents best weapon on offense, Tom Brady's favorite receiver is the open one, that kind of thing.  This stat quantifies game-planning, execution and performance among NFL peers.  Let's look at how the Patriots have ranked in the NFL from 2004 through today, again with playoff record:

2004 #1 (3-0 Won Super Bowl)
2005 #11 (1-1 Lost Divisional Round)
2006 #2 (2-1 Lost Conference Final)
2007 #1 (2-1 Lost Super Bowl)
2008 #9 (Missed Playoffs)
2009 #1 (0-1 Lost Wild Card Round)
2010 #1 (0-1 Lost Divisional Round)
2011 #3 (2-1 Lost Super Bowl)
2012 Through Week 7 # 11

Just like yesterday we see that this team as whole has performed incredibly well right through last year.  This isn't Tom Brady's performance, or a cornerback's performance, or one game plan by Belichick.  This is the entire team ranking as the #1 overachieving team four of the last eight years and in the top 3 six of the last eight.  That's still the outstanding team we came to know in 2003 and 2004.  The playoffs have been devastating, loosing the Super Bowl in the last minutes to Eli twice can make a fan feel like three pounds of expired ground meat.  But the Patriots are still a dominant team right through last year in all kinds of ways.  It's not looking great so far but there's plenty to be optimistic about.  Did you know the Patriots are the #1 team in Total Offense  in the NFL right now?  

Our expectations come from dizzying heights.  Brady and Belichick started 9-0 in the playoffs in their first four years together.  Things can only get worse from there.  These guys are still dominant, dynamic and dedicated since their last Super Bowl win in 2004.  Despite popular opinion right now this team has a better recent track record and great chance to finish the season on top. 

Until next time,

The SAHD

Monday, October 22, 2012

The Bendable Pats D - It's Not As Bad As You Think Edition


Turns out my findings on Brad Ausmus' personality in my last post made me feel comfortable with giving up Mike Aviles for John Farrell.  But on to football for now.

Our beloved New England Patriots are 4-3 and looking pretty shaky.  After heartbreaking losses in the Super Bowl to the hated New York Football Giants in two of the last six years after winning heartbreaking defeats over the Rams, Panthers, and Eagles in three of the fours years before that it's easy to see how anyone who is a fan of the Patriots could have an out of whack perspective. Many of us are long time Red Sox fans as well, and I don't know about you but that old 'they will let me down' feeling is creeping in.  The difference is they've come through so many times before. It's very confusing, like wondering if Heath Ledger could reach something like Christopher Walken status after his virtuoso Joker performance in The Dark Knight.  So to separate fact from feeling I'm turning to the stats.  And the best football stats I've found belong to The Cold Hard Football Facts. It's a pay site for the more in-depth stats I'm going to use, but their leader, Kerry Byrne, can be read on Sports Illustrated, and there are plenty of free and informative articles on the CHFF's website as well.

Today I look at CHFF Bendability Index.  In my opinion there is no better stat to personify how Bill Belichick has coached here in New England.  As the CHFF describe it:

             "The Bendability Index quantifies the concept of the "bend but don't break
             defense."The Bendability Index is not merely a defensive indicator! It is a 
             team-wide measurement of ability to keep opponents off the scoreboard. It 
             takes into account a variety of factors, including proficiency of offense and 
             special teams, field position, red zone defense, and turnover differential, 
             and then spits it all out in an easy-to-understand number."

            "Bendability = Yards allowed/Points Allowed = Yards Per Point Allowed 
             (YPPA). The higher the number, the more “bendable” the defense."

Belichick to a T.  The CHFF stats start in 2004, so here is where the Patriots have ranked league-wide in Bendability each year since then, with their playoff record is parenthesis:

2004 #2 (3-0 Won Super Bow)
2005 #15 (1-1 Lost Divisional Round)
2006 #2 (2-1 Lost Conference Championship)
2007 #6 (2-1 Lost Super Bowl)
2008 #10 (Missed Playoffs)
2009 #4 (0-1 Lost Wild Card Round)
2010 #4 (0-1 Lost Divisional Round)
2011 #2 (2-1 Lost Super Bowl)
2012 Through Week 7 #11

As you can see the Patriots have been outstanding in this indicator since its inception. Top 4 five out eight complete years.  As bad as the Patriots D is being perceived we can see that they finished #2 in 2004 and #2 last year.  The eye test, smell test, or whatever sports radio ranting test is telling us this Patriots defense is not what it once was.  The story above tells us a different story.  Yes, the team is only #11 through week seven this year, and based much more on youth than that 2004 defense, but the 4,4,2 rankings the past three years tell a sunnier defensive story than we have been led to believe. Bendability isn't the be all and end all, but it is an important piece of the puzzle.  Don't jump off the bandwagon just yet, they very well may shore things up from here.  

Until next time,

The SAHD

Friday, October 19, 2012

Red Sox Manager - Searching For Brad Ausmus Edition

As the Red Sox are about to reboot for a second time this fall by hiring a new manager I figured I would reboot this blog and drop the Charlie Pierce 'This Blog' stuff since it's so clear he hated working at the Globe where he did the blog I was paying homage to in the first place.

If you've been paying attention at all to the Boston sports scene you know there is currently a search on for the new manager of the hometown team.  The candidates are as follows: Tim Wallach, Tony Pena, DeMarlo Hale, the negotiating rights to John Farrell and Brad Ausmus.  Maybe it's because Ausmus' New England roots have come up from time to time, or just that I always heard on the Fat Boy Slim into to 'The Rockafeller Skank ' instead of "WBCN who's this? Hey this is brad (this is brad this is)" as "WBCN who's this? This is Brad Ausmus Brad Ausmus."  For whatever reason I have latched on to Brad Ausmus as the guy for the Red Sox future.  Thus I set out on a wondering journey across the internet to see if these reports of people touting him as a manager for his whole career are true.

The first place I looked was the Sports Illustrated vault.  This cornucopia of sports history will eat your whole afternoon if you're a sports nut, so enter with caution.  From there I hopped on a couple other sites through the glory of Google and found a complicated baseball man.

From a September 1993 SI story:

             "Ausmus, who became the talk of the sports-writing profession earlier this season 
             when he used the word malevolence in an interview, said that when it came to 
             communication, he  and Seminara were on the same wavelength. "Like our signs for 
             pitches," he said. "It's fingers times pi squared plus half the distance of the baseline."

The Dartmouth College educated ball player showed his cerebral side early.  More on his sense of humor to come.

The Red Sox start to become strangely intertwined with Brad Ausmus starting with this SI story from May of 1997.  The story starts out all about Nomar and Mo Vaughn calling him 'Spider Man' for his ability to get to balls in the hole.  Who knew his defensive deficiencies would lead to the ultimate baseball nirvana for Red Sox fans?  Anyhow, Ausmus's defensive prowess is profiled by touting his ability to throw out basestealers.  The story notes he had thrown out Kenny Lofton three times already in early '97.  Very interesting, according to Baseball Reference Kenny Loften led the AL in stolen bases in each of the five years prior to 1997.  He moved to Altanta in '97 and promptly led the league in being caught stealing.  Kenny never led any league in stolen bases again.  The Brad Ausmus effect?  Hmm.

So far we can see Ausmus is a tremendous defender with an Ivy League brain who might be the gong that rang the decline of Kenny Lofton's career.  What else came along?

Randy Smith, former GM for the Tigers and Astros, tells Sports Illustrated in 1999 of his unrequited love of Brad Ausmus:

"Brad's one of the best defensive catchers in baseball," [Smith] says. "He's 
great at handling a pitching staff and has a knack for putting down the 
right finger."

Huh. I thought all the players who needed the finger were packaged to The Dodgers in late August. Oh wait, there's still a jackass or two left.

Another Red Sox related SI story, Pedro on the cover in all his year 2000 bad-ass glory. Short and sweet, Ausmus is a heck of a defensive catcher.

This is where it gets a bit tricky. Brad Ausmus has had his very own Bobby Valentine moments, with Roger Clemens. Roger flippin' Clemens. Does it get any more cringe worthy from a Sox fan perspective? To whit:

"One game Roger Clemens had to call Brad out [to the mound] three times 
because he kept messing up the signs," says Lidge. "I think at least two times 
Brad didn't know how many outs there were."

Not to go all ESPN faux paux on you, but first chink in the armor Ted.***

Boring but informative, Brad placed in some pretty select company as the smartest men in baseball are voted on by MLB players in 2007.

Oddly enough, this is the oldest article I could come across linking Ausmus with managing. A 2007 Houston Chronicle piece about Ausmus being an unofficial assistant to manager Phil Garner with his Varitek-esque preparation and attention to detail. Manny definitely would've mocked Ausmus going over all his charts in the dugout.

Lastly we see a video from Brad Ausmus' last day in Houston in 2008. The strange thing about this short clip is Cecil Cooper's comments at the end. Check it out, Cooper was honestly worried about Brad Ausmus not liking him. A sign of Ausmus being too dry and sarcastic? Or maybe this was just Cooper's issue. He didn't do so well there after all.

So Ausmus isn't an iron clad choice. He was a great catcher by all accounts, considered very smart and well prepared. He's closer to David Halberstam than Terry Francona, who's to say how his clubhouse would be run? One might think he'd never not know whether the opposing starting pitcher were left or right handed a few hours before the game, but what's up with that Brad Lidge Roger Clemens story? And is it a good or bad thing that you couldn't swing a cat without hitting an Ivy Leaguer on the Red Sox team bus if Ausmus were the choice? I'd still be willing to give it a try, but John Farrell looks just a little bit better after going through this exercise.

Until next time,

The SAHD

***Upon 2nd thought perhaps Ausmus was just messing with Clemens, which would be freakin' awesome, and too far above both Clemens' and Lidge's heads. If that's the case I am all in on Ausmus, although reports are pointing to a Farrell arrangement with Toronto.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Agon's In The Outfield Edition

Danny Glover's got nothin' on this team.  Is it possible?  Could there be grit and determination being shown by our beloved Old Towne Team?  The plethora of roster moves yesterday:

  1. Cody Ross placed on the 15 day DL
  2. Ryan Sweeney goes on the newfangled 7 day Concussion DL
  3. Daisuke was moved to the 60 day DL
  4. Kevin Youkilis was activated
  5. Scott Podsednik was added to the big leagues
The mildly shocking move not made was young Will Middlebrooks remained with the Sox instead of being sent to AAA.  The ripples of this are wide for this team, despite Valentine downplaying them in this morning's interview with WEEI.  The the last two lineups (last night's and this afternoon's) have been incredibly interesting, with Middlebrooks staying at third, Youkilis to first, and Adrian Gonzalez in right field.  That's right, a day after the longest tenured Sox slugger David Ortiz barked about disrespect, showing a totally out of whack world view, the lack of comments from Gonzalez have been deafening.  Gonzalez has taken a page out of Kevin Garnett's grab bag of child-like behavior and said more or less to Valentine 'Put me in coach!'.  This is a gold glove All Star first baseman with a $20 million + a year contract who could absolutely make a stink.  He's stepping out of the way so Youkilis can play first because he can't field a lick in the outfield and Middlebrooks can remain at third.   Youk is clearly going to be shown the door sometime within the next week, this Blog's guess is he'll be gone by the time Ross can come back.

This is a sea-change we see before us.  Valentine is getting what he wants.  And the players are with him.  Remember when Valentine had a rare moment of honesty and dissed Youkilis in the mildest of ways and supposed leader Pedroia pronounced Valentine had to learn how things were done around here?  Where is that now?  Why isn't the team saying how wrong it is to have Agone go to right for the short term to help the team showcase Youkilis for an inevitable trade?  Because Gonzalez has made it clear he's going to do what he needs to do help the team win.  If Papi was such a leader it would be all about disrespect today.  Youkilis disrespected because he lost his third base job to injury, Gonzalez disrespected because he's been sent to right field.  The likes of Valentine and Gonzalez are driving this boat now, the days of Papi, the pitching staff, and Pedroia's amazing on-field exploits have taken a back seat, and the Will Middlebrooks era has begun.

Thanks for everything Youk, from the bottom of this Blog's heart, a celebration of what you've done for Sox nation will be along soon.

Until next time,

The SAHD

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Thick & Thin - Boston Players' True Colors Edition

What an incredible Boston sports night last night.  The Red Sox slay the dragon in a come back win against the dreaded O's and the Celtics light up the Sixers like a Christmas tree and visit revenge on the fans that booed Santa.  Always Red Sox first in this Blog's heart, but the players, oh the players.

The Jolly Old St. Papi had this to say after his mammoth home run and comeback win in Baltimore last night, from Peter Abraham at The Boston Globe:


         "I'm the kind of [expletive] who worries about winning games," Ortiz said. 
         "I'm a winner. I hate losing. But what I do, I don't do for everybody to 
         know. I do it for us to get better and the trash talking out there to stop."  -snip- 
         "Somebody wrote, 'Why didn't he do it earlier?' Earlier? When am I going 
         to do it, in spring training," Ortiz asked. "What did I do wrong? Seriously, what 
         did I do wrong? … You hit 54 home runs, then hit 35, it's not good enough. 
         How many people hit 35? Never good enough, bro. That's why I don't care."  
         Ortiz, making $14.5 million this season, also took exception with the media and 
         his own front office.  "I don't get no respect," Ortiz said. "Not from the media. 
         Not from the front office. What I do is never the right thing. It's always hiding, 
         for somebody to find out."


This was in light of the news of Papi's players' only meeting after the Josh Beckett less than 3 inning stinker following Golf Gate fiasco earlier this month came out.  Instead of basking in being a big part of a team that has surged since that meeting, or basking in being cheered for the loudest of anyone while coming to bat at Fenway (this Blog is lucky enough to attend many Fenway games and sees this several times each contest), he chooses to focus on the negative.  He is universally hailed as the greatest clutch hitter in Red Sox history on a consistent basis, he's the only player left in the league who is deemed good enough to be earning huge money to DH, and last but not least he has skated by scott free on the revelation that he in fact failed the drug test that began it all and lead to one of the toughest illicit drug testing systems in professional sports, according to uncle Bud anyway.  This guy is one of the best and blindly respected players in all of MLB.  He's also one of the players who sailed that sinking ship the S.S. 2011 Red Sox down a river of destruction.  You are called 'Professional' for a reason Papi, most of the time it's all about results, you've managed to transcend even that, but these comments show you still don't get it when it comes right down to it.  You are a DH, you were in the clubhouse plenty while Chicken and Beer was in full effect.  If you really are the kind of [expletive] who only worries about winning games where were you last year?  Kicking back a cold one with the good old boys is one distinct possibility.  This is thinner skinned than John Scott was before the essence of his mind fully expired on Fringe.

In full contrast was the unbridled passion and likability of the Celtics' Kevin Garnett.  These are the things Kevin Garnett cares about: He hummed Superman's theme for The Truth in the 08 playoffs, he bangs his head and acts like an idiot, he parrots his coach's entreaties to his troops in the huddle.  These things when taken out of context can appear to be the act of a moron, but when you listen and watch Garnett in the intimate moments between teammates and coach they bring you back.  Back to the camaraderie of that time between when you were just learning a game and when you have all the distractions and responsibilities that come with growing up.  When all that mattered was the game, your teammates, that heady place where you pulled together and won a game based on trust and belief and working on your craft.  Old days diatribe alert.  Not sure if times like this can ever happen again with smart phones, the world at one's fingertips, but it was like this for any of us born in the 70s or before.  This is what Garnett had to say following last night's playoff win, when asked about a bad call no less, from Chris Forsberg at ESPN's Boston site:

        “This goddamned crowd here sparks you,” said Garnett (20 points, 8-of-17 FG).
        “It doesn’t take much here, man. … When speaking about this crowd, man, it’s
        like plugging in. They’re enthused from 48 minutes on, from the tip on, so I can’t
        see the difference between minute from minute. I feel like every minute I look up,
        I see my family, I see people yelling, I see the drunk, fat guy. I can decipher one
        from the other. This crowd is ridiculous, man. I love it.” -snip- “It’s like taking a cold
        shower, stepping into a freezer that’s below 60,” added Garnett of the Boston crowd.
        “I wouldn’t recommend it, but if you want the feeling, try it out, come back and
        let me know.”


This Blog hasn't felt a chill like that since being in the bleachers for one of Pedro Martinez vintage 17 strikeout but loosing 1-0 games (thanks again LP Bill Bertera).  Kevin Garnett gets it.  He's gotten it ever since he's gotten here.  And coming from a Mike Felger chronic from his 890 AM days, Garnett is as likable as any one of the Bruins, so, to quote Sean Thornton, "Suck it Felger".

Until next time,

The SAHD

Saturday, May 19, 2012

MLB PED Ban Arbitration Is A Joke Edition

A few days ago MLB fired Shyam Das, the well-respected independent arbitrator who dared to reverse the 50 game ban imposed on NL MVP Ryan Braun for failing a PED test last year.  For the purpose of this post the facts of the case are beside the point.  Isn't the whole point of having an independent arbitrator to have an impartial third party?  It's annoying sometimes when one realizes Supreme Court Judges are appointed for life, but there is a very good reason.  They don't worry about Congress, The Justice Department, even the Commander In Chief.  Sure they have their own personal biases, but they can make decisions free from the burden of pleasing anyone.  Mr. Das is going to have a hard time getting another job thanks to this.  What self respecting arbitrator is going to step to the plate and make decisions based on the case before them now?  This job now screams MLB stooge.  Clearly the players' union's buds have been nipped to agree to this setup, this Blog never thought he'd see the day.

Until next time,

The SAHD