As I listened to the nebulous sports arguments being hoisted on those who choose to listen to the radio this morning I came more and to believe in my thought that emotion, eye tests, smell tests, Tom E Curran hand gestures or general observations are no way to get to the truth about what a football team is doing. As a New Hampshirite might say: Give me statistics or give me death! Here again I am grateful that the self proclaimed trolls over at Cold Hard Football Facts exist. They've concocted this beauty called the Relativity Index. As they tell it:
"The Relativity Index measures the performance of each team relative to
the performance of its opponents in all other games. Essentially, it adjusts
for the quality of competition each team faces, and spits out a number that
tells us how greatly a team overachieved, or how badly a team underachieved,
relative to the quality of competition.
For example, if Team A scores 25.0 PPG, and its opponents surrender 20
PPG in all of their other contests, Team A is +5.0 PPG on offense. If Team
A surrenders 20 PPG, and its opponents score 25 PPG in all of their other
contests, Team A is +5.0 on defense. This equates to a total Relativity Index
score of +10.0 PPG. In other words, Team A is 10 points better than the average
performance of its opponents."
Seems pretty Patriot-like wouldn't you say? Chameleon defenses, taking away an opponents best weapon on offense, Tom Brady's favorite receiver is the open one, that kind of thing. This stat quantifies game-planning, execution and performance among NFL peers. Let's look at how the Patriots have ranked in the NFL from 2004 through today, again with playoff record:
2004 #1 (3-0 Won Super Bowl)
2005 #11 (1-1 Lost Divisional Round)
2006 #2 (2-1 Lost Conference Final)
2007 #1 (2-1 Lost Super Bowl)
2008 #9 (Missed Playoffs)
2009 #1 (0-1 Lost Wild Card Round)
2010 #1 (0-1 Lost Divisional Round)
2011 #3 (2-1 Lost Super Bowl)
2012 Through Week 7 # 11
Just like yesterday we see that this team as whole has performed incredibly well right through last year. This isn't Tom Brady's performance, or a cornerback's performance, or one game plan by Belichick. This is the entire team ranking as the #1 overachieving team four of the last eight years and in the top 3 six of the last eight. That's still the outstanding team we came to know in 2003 and 2004. The playoffs have been devastating, loosing the Super Bowl in the last minutes to Eli twice can make a fan feel like three pounds of expired ground meat. But the Patriots are still a dominant team right through last year in all kinds of ways. It's not looking great so far but there's plenty to be optimistic about. Did you know the Patriots are the #1 team in Total Offense in the NFL right now?
Our expectations come from dizzying heights. Brady and Belichick started 9-0 in the playoffs in their first four years together. Things can only get worse from there. These guys are still dominant, dynamic and dedicated since their last Super Bowl win in 2004. Despite popular opinion right now this team has a better recent track record and great chance to finish the season on top.
Until next time,
The SAHD
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