Turns out my findings on Brad Ausmus' personality in my last post made me feel comfortable with giving up Mike Aviles for John Farrell. But on to football for now.
Our beloved New England Patriots are 4-3 and looking pretty shaky. After heartbreaking losses in the Super Bowl to the hated New York Football Giants in two of the last six years after winning heartbreaking defeats over the Rams, Panthers, and Eagles in three of the fours years before that it's easy to see how anyone who is a fan of the Patriots could have an out of whack perspective. Many of us are long time Red Sox fans as well, and I don't know about you but that old 'they will let me down' feeling is creeping in. The difference is they've come through so many times before. It's very confusing, like wondering if Heath Ledger could reach something like Christopher Walken status after his virtuoso Joker performance in The Dark Knight. So to separate fact from feeling I'm turning to the stats. And the best football stats I've found belong to The Cold Hard Football Facts. It's a pay site for the more in-depth stats I'm going to use, but their leader, Kerry Byrne, can be read on Sports Illustrated, and there are plenty of free and informative articles on the CHFF's website as well.
Today I look at CHFF Bendability Index. In my opinion there is no better stat to personify how Bill Belichick has coached here in New England. As the CHFF describe it:
"The Bendability Index quantifies the concept of the "bend but don't break
defense."The Bendability Index is not merely a defensive indicator! It is a
team-wide measurement of ability to keep opponents off the scoreboard. It
takes into account a variety of factors, including proficiency of offense and
special teams, field position, red zone defense, and turnover differential,
and then spits it all out in an easy-to-understand number."
"Bendability = Yards allowed/Points Allowed = Yards Per Point Allowed
(YPPA). The higher the number, the more “bendable” the defense."
Belichick to a T. The CHFF stats start in 2004, so here is where the Patriots have ranked league-wide in Bendability each year since then, with their playoff record is parenthesis:
2004 #2 (3-0 Won Super Bow)
2005 #15 (1-1 Lost Divisional Round)
2006 #2 (2-1 Lost Conference Championship)
2007 #6 (2-1 Lost Super Bowl)
2008 #10 (Missed Playoffs)
2009 #4 (0-1 Lost Wild Card Round)
2010 #4 (0-1 Lost Divisional Round)
2011 #2 (2-1 Lost Super Bowl)
2012 Through Week 7 #11
As you can see the Patriots have been outstanding in this indicator since its inception. Top 4 five out eight complete years. As bad as the Patriots D is being perceived we can see that they finished #2 in 2004 and #2 last year. The eye test, smell test, or whatever sports radio ranting test is telling us this Patriots defense is not what it once was. The story above tells us a different story. Yes, the team is only #11 through week seven this year, and based much more on youth than that 2004 defense, but the 4,4,2 rankings the past three years tell a sunnier defensive story than we have been led to believe. Bendability isn't the be all and end all, but it is an important piece of the puzzle. Don't jump off the bandwagon just yet, they very well may shore things up from here.
Until next time,
The SAHD
No comments:
Post a Comment