Napoli LaRoche Who Wins? Edition

With Buster Olney of ESPN tweeting about the Red Sox doing in-depth background on C/1B Mike Napoli I figured it was time to take a more detailed look at the over 30 club of free agents who could help the Red Sox at the old Mayors' haunting ground.  Too bad neither of these guys would be the short money short time flyer that Sean Casey once was, but it's a Kevin Millar 'Got HEEEEEEM' world and we're all just living in it.  There's a theme here people.  Mike Stanley.  Ok, enough of the short money 1B/C/DH flier types. Let's drill down some good old fashioned BaseballHQ stats.

Mike Napoli Age 31       GB% FB% HR/F% OBA HR OPS
2009                               38      43     17        .341  17  .833
2010                               38      42     19        .303  19  .771
2011                               39      41     25        .412  30  1.044
2012                               40      41     26        .333  24  .802

Adam LaRoche Age 33 GB% FB% HR/F% OBA HR OPS
2009                               35      43     14        .357  25  .846
2010                               38      44     15        .319  25  .787
2011                               43      38       7        .290   3   .548
2012                               34      44     17        .348  33  .858  

For the uninitiated, GB% is % of batted balls hit on the ground, FB% is % of batted balls hit in the air, and HR/F% is % of fly balls that go for home runs (as opposed to cans of corn).  I look at the past four years because frankly I find it the best baseline to consider with the current PED testing.

Mike Napoli does his damage with some big time power.  His homers per fly are up there with the best in the game.  Unfortunately this is not the type of player you want to extend yourself for if you are the Red Sox.  He's no Adam Dunn, a high OBA-high HR/F type in his hey day.  And even though it's ever so slight, his GB% trend is getting near the danger zone and one of the reasons his OBA of .412 in 2011 will never be seen again with consistent at bats.  Also the ground balls are at the expense of the fly balls, thus the glitzy HR/F numbers aren't so glitzy in the long run.  Yes he has a right handed swing that seems to fit Fenway, but Cody Ross's Fenway swing was good for an OBA of .326 last year.  Despite his 22 home runs and smiling face that's not the way to conga around the bases buggs bunny style, which is what we want to get back to (that's right, Cody Ross is the, no offense meant ladies, girl who looks better by hanging around with not so good looking girls).  And more unsettling is the noise he wants to stay at catcher despite not just defense minded Mike Scioscia not wanting him to catch very much but even the unconventional Ron Washington kept him at 1B/DH 40% of the time over the past two years.  You can come up with percentages for anything, 14% of all people know that, but really Mike?

Then there is the interesting Mr. LaRoche.  This guy was injured in 2011 but despite outside appearances is a much more consistent batter than the currently trumpeted Mike Napoli.  His GB% is is more acceptable overall, and his OPS compares favorably with Napoli outside of 2011.  This is a man who knows how to work the count more consistently and pop the ball out of the yard at a reasonable clip.  He has a very acceptable FB% for a lumbering five hole hitter type, and while the HR/F% uptick in 2012 is slightly interesting, it isn't Melky Cabrera interesting.  He's two years older than Napoli but these days 33 ain't that old.  If the Washington Nationals don't take advantage of that special gooey feeling and sign this guy for a reasonable deal here's betting the Sox could do better with 3 or 4 years for LaRoche then 4 or 5 for Napoli.

Until next time,

The SAHD

Dewey, Raines, & The HOF Edition

In the spirit of our civic discourse and voting and such I thought I would devote some time to the Baseball HOF.  I've been a bit swept up in the wave of local and semi national support for Dwight 'Dewey' Evans to be elected to the HOF by the veterans committee.  I don't know, seems like simpler times when as a lad I could scream 'DEWEY DEWEY DEWEY' from the right field grandstands when he made a typical wonderful play.  I wondered how he compared to Tim 'Rock' Raines, who is a current darling of the sabermetric crowd to be elected via regular vote.  I like the stat WAR, or wins over replacement, as it takes into account hitting, baserunning and defense, so I've included that in my analysis.  I will compare the average HOFer, Raines, and Dewey using stats I culled from baseball reference.  I'll also throw in some of the major awards or league leading stats that the two players accumulated over their careers.

                  Yrs  WAR    R    HR   RBI   BA   OBP  OPS
Avg HOF    18    65    1323  211  1213 .303 .376   .838

Raines       23    66.2  1571 170   980  .294  .385  .810
Career highlights: 7 time All Star, Top 5 in MVP voting 1, League Leader R 2, 2B 2, SB 4, BA 1, OBP 1

Dewey       20     62.8  1470 385  1384  .272 .370  .840
Career highlights: 3 time All Star, Top 5 in MVP voting 2, League Leader R 1, HR 1, OBP 1, OPS 2, 8 time Gold Glove winner.

Raine's .385 career OBP is what those who advocate for him today feel he has been under appreciated for.   Some say he could be considered the second best leadoff man of all time behind Rickey Henderson.  Dewey's bat has been under appreciated severely considering he stacks up quite well in R, HR, RBI, OBP and OPS.  At least Raines has gotten the respect of staying on the active ballot.  Dewey washed out on his third year eligible in 1999 receiving only 3.6% of the vote.  Considering he is worthy of the average HOFer I'd say that's a travesty.  Raines is a slightly, very slightly, better candidate, but both certainly deserve election.  Lets get them there before too many steroid freaks start showing up on the ballot.

Until next time,

The SAHD

Red Sox Best Starter Trade Target Edition

While pondering the mysteries of the cosmos I found myself listening to Jim Callis of Baseball America discuss the Red Sox top 10 prospect list with Alex Speier of WEEI.com on his Minor Details podcast.  It's over an hour long, but among the nuggets I gleaned were:

• The Red Sox have three very good starting pitchers in the top 5 or 6 from their system, including Matt Barnes, Henry Owens and Allen Webster.  Owens is a tall lefty who Callis believes could be the best of the three, Webster has a lot of movement on his pitches and throws a plus slider, and Barnes has the best fastball and a plus curve.
• Jose Iglesias is ranked at #9 is the system and is considered elite defensively but almost a loss as a batter.
• Scouts believe that Will Middlebrooks has great range at third base and made Mike Aviles look better because Will the thrill could cover so much ground.
• The Red Sox have even more starting pitching depth that is outside the top 10 this year but has been in the top 10 prior years but dropped because of injury
• The #1 prospect Xander Bogaerts is only 20 years old and over the course of the interview was compared to Derek Jeter, Hanley Ramirez and Cal Ripken, has an incredible bat including plus power, his defense most likely in more than serviceable at shortstop, and will probably be ready to start in the majors in 2014.

This information led me to the Red Sox starting pitcher needs, the lack of rock solid good fits for the starting rotation in free agency other than Anibal Sanchez, with a few lower priced pearls thrown in, and a potential trade target I thought would be a much better bet for around the same price of the oft injured Miami Marlins Ace Josh Johnson.  I am speaking of the soon to be 27 year old fireballer Yovani Gallardo of the Milwaukee Brewers.  Gallardo is an Ace just like Johnson, but with a better fastball, younger, healthier and more cost effective.  And despite the Brew Crew making noise about getting in on Josh Hamiltion they are still a place where few free agents want to go; they have limited cash, and need to have a cost controlled group of players to compete.  It would be difficult to get them to give up Gallardo, he's going to get $7.75 M in 2013 and $11.25 M in 2014, but they have one large contract that could be the key to a deal: Rickie Weeks. Weeks is their starting second baseman who just had a very disappointing year and is scheduled to make $10 M in 2013 and $11 M in 2014.  They also traded Zach Greinke to the LA Angesls last year for a highly touted infield prospect named Jean Segura, who they tried out at shortstop in late 2012 but is better suited for second. You can guess where I'm going with this but here in my proposed very realistic trade:

Brewers get:  SS Jose Iglesias ($2.06 M 2013, arbitration controlled through 2017), SP prospect Allen Webster, Junichi Tazawa who could fill the gap in their bullpen left by K-Rod and just finished a great year in the Red Sox bullpen, and a Jerry Sands or Ryan Lavarnway type, someone with some power potential who would never be given the time here in Boston unless the team is aiming for one of the worst seasons in franchise history like last year.

Red Sox get: SP Yovani Gallardo and 2B Rickie Weeks.

The Brewers get a defensive wiz in Iglesias, move their big prospect Segura to second, and one of the most hyped starting pitcher prospects in the majors in Allen Webster who is famous for being included in the Red Sox-Dodgers deal of century.  They could sell Webster to the fan base and Iglesias' fielding exploits will speak for themselves.  Tazawa came in and was about the only reliable reliever for Bobby Valentine the last part of 2012. He is being pegged as a dominant reliever or good starter and is at or near the top of his trade value at this time. Some cost controlled power thrown in should sweeten the pot enough considering the Sox would be giving up two of their newly minted top 10 prospects.  They would also get plenty of salary relief, maybe even enough to throw at Josh Hamilton's damaged reputation to tempt him to sign with them.

The Red Sox give from a position of strength, which amazingly is starting pitching prospects.  I haven't even mentioned Ruby De La Rosa, who has some major league time with the Dodgers thus didn't end up on the prospect list.  If he did he might've been #1, an extremely high ceiling 23 year old who was included with Webster in the big Dodgers Sox deal.  They use some of that financial flexibility to pay Weeks top 10 starting second basemen money to be a super utility player and get Gallardo to join the top of the Red Sox rotation for years to come.  The Sox could then go out and find a stop-gap shortstop (remember Alex Gonzalez?) to play until Bogaerts, who combined with the rangy Middlebrooks would be a solid left side of the infield, is ready and splurge on a bullpen arm or two.  Oh yeah, and save money by not overpaying Anibal Sanchez.

As Queen so eloquently put it, is this the real life, is this just fantasy?  Maybe they're not sour on Weeks and the fact that Prince Fielder and C.C. Sabathia decided to leave has no bearing on their ability to sign a high priced free agent in a compromising position such as Hamilton. But then again, maybe not.  Pound those phones Cherington!

Until next time,

The SAHD

Boys Will Be Boys - The Boston Toronto Tango Edition

Just the other day we were breathlessly told that former Toronto coach Brian Butterfield, Pats fan extraordinaire and brilliant baseball mind, was being hired to become John Farrell's new third base coach for the local nine.  Now it's being reported that Butterfield is a candidate to be the new manager back in Toronto.  Is this the sandbox or The Show?!  I thought Alex Anthopoulos was a new breed of GM, someone who's risen from the mail room to the boardroom surly takes their job seriously right?  The petty and bumbling Haywood Sullivan's of the world are in the past, aren't they?

Alex are you feeling rejected and hurt by John Farrell's unrequited love for the Red Sox? Don't you know a 73-89 team needs to clean house?  Do you really want to keep a whole bunch of staff around from last year, didn't you see how that worked out for Bobby Valentine?

On the other hand, how many more ways can the Red Sox and John Farrell stick it to Toronto?  Not only did the Sox tank, they tanked so hard they actually have a better draft pick than Toronto in the upcoming draft.  Farrell has admitted to wanting to get out of Toronto almost as soon as he got in, he's taken their heir apparent Torey Lovullo as his new bench coach, and now he's raiding their cupboard again with this Butterfield thing. What, is Farrell going to go up there and raze cottage country now? 

The things that Patriots bye weeks, no NHL, MLB free agency not fully kicked off, and depressing thoughts of the Miami Heat marching to another NBA championship are made of.

Until next time,

The SAHD

Scott Baker SP - Great Gamble For Red Sox Edition

Slogging through the effects of hurricane Sandy here in the Boston area I was jolted to spring training mode getting the info that Scott Baker's 2013 option was declined by the Twins.  This makes Mr. Baker a free agent.  He will be 30 for the 2013 season and is coming off of Tommy John surgery in April of 2012, but I'm willing to put him under the microscope because of his affordability (due to TJS) and skill profile.  Of course, the Twins still have time to negotiate with him before free agency opens but here's hoping that doesn't happen.  Let's investigate using the same process I used to come up with Anibal Sanchez, Francisco Liriano and Carlos Villanueva earlier this week.  Thanks again to baseball reference and Baseball HQ for the stats.

               Innings   K   K/9   WHIP   Ground Ball %   Innings/Start
2007        144      102  6.4   1.329         35%                 6.26
2008        172      141  7.4    1.178        33%                 6.14
2009        200      162  7.3    1.190        33%                 7.14
2010        170      148  7.8    1.344        36%                 5.86
2011        135      123  8.2    1.173        34%                 6.43

Baker has a lot going for him.  His K/9, WHIP, and Innings/Start are all very attractive.  He is a fly ball pitcher, but his K ability and WHIP show he keeps the ball in the park, and he can really shorten a bullpen.  He's coming off injury, but 10-12 months is seen as the recovery time for TJS, and his recovery appears to be on track for spring training in 2013.

Add Mr. Baker to the group of three I mentioned earlier in the week as the best potential targets for the Red Sox.  Again, non of these guys are a slam dunk.  These are merely my choices as the best free agents available in a cost effective environment.  Scott Baker might have a setback, then again he has the skills to win 15-20 games.  Here's hoping the Orioles also do the Sox a solid and decide $11 M is too much for the perfect fit for the open 1B position Mark Reynolds.

Until next time,

The SAHD

P.S. Remember you heard these things here first.  Saw Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe tweeting about Anibal Sanchez as a fit for the Red Sox during his Game 3 World Series start on 9/27.  I gave a much deeper insight into why Sanchez would be a good fit 3 days earlier.  I posted Tim Thomas should be traded for Alexander Semin on 2/12/12. Thomas didn't play after April 26 last year and is now sitting out this non existent NHL season and even Semin's inconsistent scoring would've been welcome in last year's playoffs.  Just sayin's all.

Red Sox FA 1B, SS, OF Targets Edition

Having looked through some starting pitcher targets earlier in the week I've decided to tackle the Red Sox positional needs.  I'm very much in favor of a return to 2003 style of free agency, trying to find a diamond in the rough, so I decided to see if there was anyone close to David Ortiz's Age 26 2002 or Jose Bautista's Age 29 2008 available to find. People want to get back to some of that grind it out baseball, taking some walks, pounding some homers, and keeping the players the Sox have drafted and developed. As such I'm looking at three stats: On Base Average (OBA), Home Runs HR, and On-Base + Slugging (OPS).  These three stats can be harbingers of excellent hitters, so lets see how Papi and Joey Bats fared in the season just prior to their breakouts.

Ortiz      .341 OBA 20 HR .841 OPS
Bautista .344 OBA 13 HR .752 OPS

Considering Ortiz was only 26 it's rather shocking now to see how cheaply the Red Sox got him in 2003.  I don't believe with the way front office's are run these days a guy like this would become available again, but you never know.  Bautista is interesting because he was considered old at 29.  So those are the benchmarks I'm shooting for, and the positions the Red Sox need are 1B, SS (yes Iglesias is there but he can't hit a lick right now), and OF (Ellsbury, Cody Ross if he comes back, Ryan Kalish, Daniel Nava. Considering Ells is a big question along with the rest I'd say OF is a priority).

First Base

It's a thin market, Mike Napoli could play some first but he's 31 so too old for this study and probably will require too much cash with the power market so thin.  There are two players that could be interesting however.

Mark Reynolds Age 29 .328 OBA 23 HR .757 OPS

The Orioles hold an $11 M option on Reynolds, or a $500 K buyout.  There is a good possibility Reynolds could become available.  He has averaged 35 HRs the previous 4 years and would be the most expensive of the players examined here if the Os let him go. Even so the Sox could find some value here if other teams think his glove, much improved at first base, is made to be a DH.  The linked story from the Baltimore Sun above also shows he may even be learning to cut down on his record setting strikeouts.

Casey Kotchman Age 29

There are some trends worth looking into on this guy.  I know we've seen his act here before but check out his last four years.  OBA '12 .270 '11 .367 '10 .278 '09 .335 HR '12 12 '11 10 '10 9 '09 7 OPS '12 603 '11 789 '10 614 '09 717.  Good years OBA and OPS '11, '09, slow rise in HR.  We're going into an odd year in '13, he could put it all together and have a career year.  It wouldn't be Papi or Bautista like but he could be Kevin Millar with a better glove.  I'd take that for a cheap short term 1B option.

Short Stop

Ronny Cedeno Age 29 .328 OBA 4 HR 738 OPS

This guy looks like a washout but there are some interesting tidbits.  He had his best offensive season in limited at bats last year and could be a very good option to spell or keep the seat warm for Jose Iglesias if he ever learns to hit.  He started in Pittsburg for a couple of years and could surprise due to his age and small seeds of offense.  Stephen Drew is also available this offseason at age 29 but will cost more and be no more reliable.

Outfield

Melky Cabrera Age 28 .394 OBA 11 HR .910 OPS

We know the numbers above are artificially produced, but age 26 he was .341 OBA 18 HR .810 OPS.  Sure, he could've been juicing then too, but he's at a prime age and will most likely come cheap.  That's what this study is all about.

It doesn't appear that there are any superstars lurking here on the surface but this is how the offseason was approached in 2002 for the Red Sox and what we're all hoping for this year.  Trading away prospects seems like a bad idea, with the system just starting to reassert itself after trading the farm for Adrian Gonzalez after the 2010 season.  This is a bad offseason for free agent spending, with some very questionable top talent.  Keep the money and wait for a better free agent class and some prospects to mature in 2014.

Until next time,

The SAHD

Belichick The Drafter - GM or Dunce Edition

I am perplexed and concerned about the Patriots multiple one and done playoff performances lately and inability to beat the Giants in the Super Bowl.  However, I need some silver linings lately so I've decided to tackle the notion I've been hearing for a few years that Belichick the GM isn't nearly as good as Belichick the head coach.  This is a result of what appears to be a woeful pass defense and all the draft capital spent on that part of the team that has resulted in ruin.  Well, (viewer discretion is advised) allow me to retort!

I looked at the drafts from 2009 (Scott Pioli left for Kansas City on 1/13/09) through this year.  I'll go through the first and second round picks with some cherries picked from the later rounds.  

2009: 2nd Round - Pat Chung DB a serviceable safety, inconsistent.

                               Ron Brace DT starting runstopper on the D line, could be part of 

                               the reason Willfork has stepped it up in the last few years.

                               Darius Butler DB is draft bust spelled D A R I U S?

                               Sebastian Vollmer T a starter on the O line when he's healthy

          7th Round -  Julian Edelman WR gets the job done and considering he's a 

                               7th rounder seems like a great pick.

2010:   1st Round - Devin McCourty DB great his rookie year, lost last year, somehow 

                                just won the special teams player of the week despite almost 

                                fumbling the game away.  

           2nd Round - Gronk TE an absolute steal.

                                Jermaine Cunningham LB solid starter

                                Brandon Spikes LB good linebacker who is one of the fiercest 

                                hitters in the league

           4th Round -  Aaron Hernandez TE another steal

           5th Round -  Zoltan Mesko P sure Belichick expended a 5th round pick on a punter,

                                but he's an outstanding punter.

2011:   1st Round - Nate Solder T starter on the offensive line

           2nd Round - Ras-I Dowling DB perhaps draft bust spelled R A S I

                                Shane Vereen RB just beginning to get his feet wet

            3rd Round - Steven Ridley RB if he gets his fumbles under control potential for 

                                 greatness

            4th Round - Ryan Mallet QB mythical backup QB

2012:   1st Round - Chandler Jones DE flashes of awesomeness, rookie ups and down

                                 Dont'A Hightower LB see Chandler Jones

            2nd Round - Tavon Wilson S despite getting burned now and then does have two 

                                 interceptions and two fumble recoveries.  Not bad.

By my count that's two incredible steals in Gronk and Hernandez, two offensive line starters in Vollmer and Solder, a two mercurial but talented DBs in McCourty and Chung, a late round offensive piece in Edelman, a good to great running back in Ridley in the 3rd round, and one of the best punters in the league in Mesko.  Sure there's a couple of 2nd round busts in Dowling and Butler, but there's a lot more to like than not.  So come on, let's lay off the GM Bill Belichick.  He's given coach Belichick some good to great players. If only coach Belichick could get Tom Brady to win that parking space again.

Until next time,

The SAHD