Ok Sox fans, this is a biggie. This Blog is finding too much bile remaining from September of 2011 in his Sox loving sycophantic heart, it can be denied no longer.
Josh Beckett, save us. Yes, that is the state of things. Josh....Beckett. How could this happen? Even Papelbon's megga contract with the Phightin Phillies seems reasonable now. This feels like when one breaks up with a significant other because one feels he/she could do better, would be better off without them, but instead one's social scene becomes a barren wasteland and you see the one you left behind laughing in the distance with some good looking so and so and you regret. The Red Sox have again induced regret in Sox Nation. This Blog predicted the team will skip and hop to a playoff looking team by the end of May. Still possible, so why does a win today seem so desperate?
Human nature. Please Sox, save us from ourselves. David Price casts a large shadow, be like the mostly naked dudes in that horrible '300' movie and fight in the shade. (It's pitiful what the Red Sox can do to a bloke, no witty remarks to be found.)
Until next time,
The SAHD
Friday, April 13, 2012
Monday, April 9, 2012
Is It (Curt)ains For The Sox? Edition
Turns out Schilling's Titanic reference was more apt then originally mocked in this space. Jon Lester and pray for rain, rain, rain and rain? All closers are posers? Youk benched for Punto? Bobby V doing radio in NYC?
Ok, this Blog lived through the summer of 1998 with only the Yankees games available on radio from his home in Worcester MA and no TV. That team started off 0-3, and then gave this mad baseball loving Blog grey hair by winning 114 of their final 159 games and cruising to the 1998 World Series title. There were shouts of joy from that small Worcester abode for less than a week in April, then groans of agony again and again as Jeter, O'Neil and Co laid waste to the rest of the MLB.
Does this Red Sox team have a little 1998 Yanks in them? No way, but judging from the Yankees' performance against the Rays this past weekend they don't either. Here's one more useless prediction that the Yankees will finally get old this year. So whither the Red Sox of 2012?
Let's not forget that the road to the playoffs is the easiest its ever been. Traditionalist vs. new wave baseball argument aside, this is a very good thing for the Sox. A check of the playoff hopefuls: The AL West has the reloaded Angels and last year's AL Champion Rangers. The AL Central has the wiping the Red Sox all over the field Tigers and little else. There are 5 playoff spots available, giving 3 to the teams above and 1 to the young and vigorous Tampa Bay Rays still leaves 1 for the Sox and Yanks to fight over. And that's assuming the Rays can continue to look like the class of the division, which is no sure thing considering the youth in their starting pitching and depending on Farnsworth, Rodney and company in that bullpen. Yes, it's shocking, this Blog is predicting the waters will calm and the Sox will smoothly be sailing into playoff position by the end of May. The rotation and bullpen can't be that bad really, right? Right?
Until Next Time,
The SAHD
Ok, this Blog lived through the summer of 1998 with only the Yankees games available on radio from his home in Worcester MA and no TV. That team started off 0-3, and then gave this mad baseball loving Blog grey hair by winning 114 of their final 159 games and cruising to the 1998 World Series title. There were shouts of joy from that small Worcester abode for less than a week in April, then groans of agony again and again as Jeter, O'Neil and Co laid waste to the rest of the MLB.
Does this Red Sox team have a little 1998 Yanks in them? No way, but judging from the Yankees' performance against the Rays this past weekend they don't either. Here's one more useless prediction that the Yankees will finally get old this year. So whither the Red Sox of 2012?
Let's not forget that the road to the playoffs is the easiest its ever been. Traditionalist vs. new wave baseball argument aside, this is a very good thing for the Sox. A check of the playoff hopefuls: The AL West has the reloaded Angels and last year's AL Champion Rangers. The AL Central has the wiping the Red Sox all over the field Tigers and little else. There are 5 playoff spots available, giving 3 to the teams above and 1 to the young and vigorous Tampa Bay Rays still leaves 1 for the Sox and Yanks to fight over. And that's assuming the Rays can continue to look like the class of the division, which is no sure thing considering the youth in their starting pitching and depending on Farnsworth, Rodney and company in that bullpen. Yes, it's shocking, this Blog is predicting the waters will calm and the Sox will smoothly be sailing into playoff position by the end of May. The rotation and bullpen can't be that bad really, right? Right?
Until Next Time,
The SAHD
Thursday, April 5, 2012
One Last Heartbreak Before 1st Pitch Edition
ESPN just gave Sox fans (and Braves fans for that matter) one last jolt of being ripped in half before the local 9 face off against the flying Verlanders. This Blog must compose itself and not get too upset if Mr. 100mph in the 9th inning takes it to the boys today.
It's opening day, one of the greatest days in the year and all about a fresh new thing. No true closer? Who cares! Questions in the pitching staff? So what! Curt Schilling taking shot after shot? Pound sand!
The smell of hot dogs and fresh cut grass abounds, the grand old game is back in business, en-robe yourselves in Sox gear everyone first pitch in 7 minutes!
Until next time,
The SAHD
It's opening day, one of the greatest days in the year and all about a fresh new thing. No true closer? Who cares! Questions in the pitching staff? So what! Curt Schilling taking shot after shot? Pound sand!
The smell of hot dogs and fresh cut grass abounds, the grand old game is back in business, en-robe yourselves in Sox gear everyone first pitch in 7 minutes!
Until next time,
The SAHD
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
2nd Guessing Bobby V's Closer Choice Edition
This Blog has finally gotten to the point of second guessing Bobby V. Wanted to wait at least until real games started but this closer decision has done the trick. Alfredo Aceves gets the nod to begin with over Mark Melancon. Is Aceves not the best option to spot start should Beckett's thumb hurt more or his finger get a blister or he step off the curb and tweak his hammy? Yes, Beckett is fragile, you get it already. Aceves also proved money last year in innings 4, 5, 6, and 7. Yesterday Melancon was studied. The numbers will be crunched into three year averages and let's see these two gents side to side:
Aceves Melancon
Innings 210 112
ERA 3.00 3.20
WHIP 1.06 1.25
BB/9 2.65 3.45
K/9 6.5 8.0
W 24 8
L 4 4
SV 4 20
Aceves's wins and innings speak to his role being much more of a spot starter and long reliever, although having a 24-4 record over the last three years is pretty darned impressive. Aceves has better control (less walks and lower WHIP), Melancon is that much more dominant (striking out 1.5 more batters per 9 innings). No doubt, Aceves is a very good pitcher. This Blog's point is just as much about Melancon's potential as it is about the value of Aceves in just about every other point in the game except the 9th inning. A couple more data points to bring it home. Per BaseballHQ.com Aceves has a three year Ground Ball % (% of ball put in play against him) of 39%. His Fly Ball % is 45%. By contrast, Melancon's three year Groud Ball % is 56% with a Fly Ball % of 24%. Melancon allows a little more than 20% less fly balls and induces 17% more ground balls. Melancon is in the top tier of major leaguers with that 56% Ground Ball %, much more the profile of a dominant pitcher than Aceves. The guess here is Aceves will blow a couple games and Melancon will be in the closer's role by May. Beyond that we'll see how Melancon handles the pressure.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Aceves Melancon
Innings 210 112
ERA 3.00 3.20
WHIP 1.06 1.25
BB/9 2.65 3.45
K/9 6.5 8.0
W 24 8
L 4 4
SV 4 20
Aceves's wins and innings speak to his role being much more of a spot starter and long reliever, although having a 24-4 record over the last three years is pretty darned impressive. Aceves has better control (less walks and lower WHIP), Melancon is that much more dominant (striking out 1.5 more batters per 9 innings). No doubt, Aceves is a very good pitcher. This Blog's point is just as much about Melancon's potential as it is about the value of Aceves in just about every other point in the game except the 9th inning. A couple more data points to bring it home. Per BaseballHQ.com Aceves has a three year Ground Ball % (% of ball put in play against him) of 39%. His Fly Ball % is 45%. By contrast, Melancon's three year Groud Ball % is 56% with a Fly Ball % of 24%. Melancon allows a little more than 20% less fly balls and induces 17% more ground balls. Melancon is in the top tier of major leaguers with that 56% Ground Ball %, much more the profile of a dominant pitcher than Aceves. The guess here is Aceves will blow a couple games and Melancon will be in the closer's role by May. Beyond that we'll see how Melancon handles the pressure.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
Fill In Red Sox Closer Edition
The opposite of Han Solo's brohug with Chewy comes to mind.
On the heels of the Andrew Bailey thumb injury news comes the what in the Sam Hill is going on with Josh Beckett's thumb now news. Yes, as this Blog writes Beckett is on his way to Cleveland to meet up with Bailey in the waiting room of hand specialist Dr. Robert Graham. Thumbs? Thumbs? Really? And I know Drew Carey sang about Cleveland Rocking and all, but Cleveland as a mecca for medical care doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
With that said, is the Red Sox sky falling? This Blog has already written about Daniel Bard being the equal or better than C.J. Wilson as a starter (spring training numbers don't count, can't Bard get a real start or two before we judge him please?), and the lineup should still be one of the tops in the majors. Starting Pitching depth is key to be sure, but the first under the microscope is assumed fill-in closer Mark Melancon. Small sample sizes caveat, here are some trends from the last three years from baseballreference.com.
Innings ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 W L SV
2009 NYY 16.1 3.86 1.408 5.5 5.5 0 1 0
2010 NYY/HOU 21.1 4.22 1.266 9.3 3.4 2 0 0
2011 HOU 74.1 2.78 1.224 8.0 3.1 8 4 20
As a rookie with the Yankees in 2009 he got his feet wet, started to figure it out over his brief time in 2010, and really put things together in 2011. His stuff appears to be pretty good, getting a lot of strikeouts with those K/9 rates, and just as encouraging are the declining BB/9 and WHIP trends. Of course the guy did most of his good work in the National League, and got rocked in the 2 games he pitched in the American League in 2010. The outlook is decent, a little bit to write home about, and he is entering the sweetspot for pitchers, his age 27 season. Looks to this Blog like this is a reasonable stop gap with a chance to be solid major league closer. From this rose colored glasses wearing Sox fan that's not exactly a ringing endorsement. We'll see what he does when Fenway is rocking in the bottom of the 9th with Robinson Cano strolling to the plate with two outs and a batter at second.
Until next time,
The SAHD
On the heels of the Andrew Bailey thumb injury news comes the what in the Sam Hill is going on with Josh Beckett's thumb now news. Yes, as this Blog writes Beckett is on his way to Cleveland to meet up with Bailey in the waiting room of hand specialist Dr. Robert Graham. Thumbs? Thumbs? Really? And I know Drew Carey sang about Cleveland Rocking and all, but Cleveland as a mecca for medical care doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
With that said, is the Red Sox sky falling? This Blog has already written about Daniel Bard being the equal or better than C.J. Wilson as a starter (spring training numbers don't count, can't Bard get a real start or two before we judge him please?), and the lineup should still be one of the tops in the majors. Starting Pitching depth is key to be sure, but the first under the microscope is assumed fill-in closer Mark Melancon. Small sample sizes caveat, here are some trends from the last three years from baseballreference.com.
Innings ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 W L SV
2009 NYY 16.1 3.86 1.408 5.5 5.5 0 1 0
2010 NYY/HOU 21.1 4.22 1.266 9.3 3.4 2 0 0
2011 HOU 74.1 2.78 1.224 8.0 3.1 8 4 20
As a rookie with the Yankees in 2009 he got his feet wet, started to figure it out over his brief time in 2010, and really put things together in 2011. His stuff appears to be pretty good, getting a lot of strikeouts with those K/9 rates, and just as encouraging are the declining BB/9 and WHIP trends. Of course the guy did most of his good work in the National League, and got rocked in the 2 games he pitched in the American League in 2010. The outlook is decent, a little bit to write home about, and he is entering the sweetspot for pitchers, his age 27 season. Looks to this Blog like this is a reasonable stop gap with a chance to be solid major league closer. From this rose colored glasses wearing Sox fan that's not exactly a ringing endorsement. We'll see what he does when Fenway is rocking in the bottom of the 9th with Robinson Cano strolling to the plate with two outs and a batter at second.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Sox Manager Musings Edition
This Blog has been busy busy busy doing the SAHD thing, and won't have much in the next several days, but will be back to regular postings by the middle of next week. Thanks as always to the readers, you rule!
From Tim Kurkjian and ESPN to Nick Cafardo and The Boston Globe praise upon praise is being heaped upon Bobby Valentine for the way he's running Spring Training. Heck, even this Blog wanted to give three cheers to Bobby for attention to detail when he saw Mike Aviles properly back up a shot down the left field line that bounced back past the left fielder and throw out a runner trying to make it to 2B in the first NESN televised game. This showed the benefit of having the new Jet Blue Park contain the same field dimensions as Fenway, and Bobby V's knowledge is reportedly being passed along with gusto in spurts as he roves from station to station. But the fact remains, he's had one good run in all his MLB managing stops. Francona made the playoffs over and over, and brought home the most historic win in Sox history. Two World Series Titles in 8 years for our team has to go in the pantheon of incredible sports achievements in all Boston sports history.
But the time for Francona to go had come, the abruptness of his downfall was almost as astonishing as his incredible rise, and his weakness continues to show in his new ESPN gig. The back and forth with Bobby V, where Francona said announcing no beer in the clubhouse was PR, Bobby said Francona gets paid to say things I get paid to do things, and Francona backing off his comments, is typical Francona mushy backbone behavior. Francona's success was letting the boys play. This carefree attitude was personified by Manny Ramirez, and required utmost professionalism from the vast majority of the clubhouse. Sure the 2004 team was a bunch of idiots, but outside Millar and Ramirez those guys were about working hard and doing things the right way. Francona's hands-off approach maximized the best attributes of Damon, Nixon, Schilling, Mueller, and Ortiz, as well as Millar and Ramirez. The leaders led, the crazies were crazy, and the players in between like Foulke, were along for the ride. Lest we forget, Pedro's worst attribute also thrived in this situation. He almost blew up game 7 of the ALCS getting Francona to throw him in there for no reason in the late innings. With players like Pedroia, Youkilis, Lester and Papelbon he had more hard chargers to ride through the World Series in 2007, but cracks have showed ever since. Francona's whining about west coast road trips and interleague play did nothing but give his teams excuses to play poorly, and his anything goes approach led to lazy play and entitled players, the kind that lay down in the playoffs instead of stepping up.
Bobby V might not win anything, and the honeymoon period with the media is amusing to see. This Blog sees a similar meteoric rise in year 1 to Francona, but his micromanaging ways won't last long. And if the team struggles through April this could become a full on meltdown if things don't go well. But any pining for Francona should be put aside. He was the right person at the right time. Times changed, he didn't adapt.
Until next Week,
The SAHD
From Tim Kurkjian and ESPN to Nick Cafardo and The Boston Globe praise upon praise is being heaped upon Bobby Valentine for the way he's running Spring Training. Heck, even this Blog wanted to give three cheers to Bobby for attention to detail when he saw Mike Aviles properly back up a shot down the left field line that bounced back past the left fielder and throw out a runner trying to make it to 2B in the first NESN televised game. This showed the benefit of having the new Jet Blue Park contain the same field dimensions as Fenway, and Bobby V's knowledge is reportedly being passed along with gusto in spurts as he roves from station to station. But the fact remains, he's had one good run in all his MLB managing stops. Francona made the playoffs over and over, and brought home the most historic win in Sox history. Two World Series Titles in 8 years for our team has to go in the pantheon of incredible sports achievements in all Boston sports history.
But the time for Francona to go had come, the abruptness of his downfall was almost as astonishing as his incredible rise, and his weakness continues to show in his new ESPN gig. The back and forth with Bobby V, where Francona said announcing no beer in the clubhouse was PR, Bobby said Francona gets paid to say things I get paid to do things, and Francona backing off his comments, is typical Francona mushy backbone behavior. Francona's success was letting the boys play. This carefree attitude was personified by Manny Ramirez, and required utmost professionalism from the vast majority of the clubhouse. Sure the 2004 team was a bunch of idiots, but outside Millar and Ramirez those guys were about working hard and doing things the right way. Francona's hands-off approach maximized the best attributes of Damon, Nixon, Schilling, Mueller, and Ortiz, as well as Millar and Ramirez. The leaders led, the crazies were crazy, and the players in between like Foulke, were along for the ride. Lest we forget, Pedro's worst attribute also thrived in this situation. He almost blew up game 7 of the ALCS getting Francona to throw him in there for no reason in the late innings. With players like Pedroia, Youkilis, Lester and Papelbon he had more hard chargers to ride through the World Series in 2007, but cracks have showed ever since. Francona's whining about west coast road trips and interleague play did nothing but give his teams excuses to play poorly, and his anything goes approach led to lazy play and entitled players, the kind that lay down in the playoffs instead of stepping up.
Bobby V might not win anything, and the honeymoon period with the media is amusing to see. This Blog sees a similar meteoric rise in year 1 to Francona, but his micromanaging ways won't last long. And if the team struggles through April this could become a full on meltdown if things don't go well. But any pining for Francona should be put aside. He was the right person at the right time. Times changed, he didn't adapt.
Until next Week,
The SAHD
Friday, March 2, 2012
Don't Trade Rondo Edition
With all the recent Celtics talk recently the most troubling to this Blog is the thought of trading Rondo. Only caveat to that would be a trade for Deron Williams with 90% chance of him resigning then getting 65+% chance of getting Dwight 'Super Man' Howard as a free agent. The odds of those things happening are close to 0% so trading Rondo, a relatively cheap triple double every night threat, seems foolish.
Remember Paul Pierce throwing a nutty in the 2005 playoffs by taking off and tossing his jersey after a questionable call? That was Pierce's 7th year in the league and he was 27 years old. Rondo's recent throwing a ball at the ref happened in a regular season game, it's his 6th year in the league, and he just turned 26. Pierce had some similar maturity, moody, not getting along with teammates issues when he was young and look at him now, a sure Hall of Famer and top 5 scorer in Celtics history. On both WEEI and The Sports Hub callers and hosts alike are leaning on the 'Rondo can't carry a team to the Finals' argument. Could Paul Pierce? Sure, Paul won the Finals MVP in 2008 over the Lakers but everyone knows Kevin Garnett was the heart and soul of that team. One could argue Paul was still immature at that point considering his carry off the court injury then miraculous come back to the court antics in Game 1 of those Finals. Hey, this Blog loves The Truth, but he couldn't carry his team to the Finals as the central piece either.
How does Rondo compare career and this season-wise to other top pointguards?
Rondo
Career 10.9 ppg, 7.7 apg, 4.4 rpg, 1.9 spg
This year 14.2 ppg, 9.6 apg, 5.0 rpg, 1.5 spg
Derek Rose
Career 21.0 ppg, 6.8 apg, 3.9 rpg, .9 spg
This year 22.4 ppg, 7.6 apg, 3.3 rpg, .9 spg
Deron Williams
Career 17.5 ppg, 9.1 apg, 3.3 rpg, 1.1 spg
This Year 21.9 ppg, 8.3 apg, 3.5 rpg, 1.1 spg
Sure, Rondo doesn't score as much, but even with the motley crew that's healthy at any one time on this year's Celtics he's increasing his assists and filling some of the rebound void even more than usual. Williams is clearly a notch above Rondo but Derek Rose, last year's regular season MVP, looks up at Rondo in all but one stat, Points Per Game. Is Rondo perfect? No, he shoots poorly both from the floor and the line, but still gets it done in all other areas. Need a big rebound? Need an open shot? Need a defensive stop? Rondo can take care of all that. Rondo is incredibly valuable, the most valuable of all the Celtics for the foreseeable future. He's the one that makes the other players look better than they are. So what if he doesn't score as much. Trade any or all of the aging big three, but please Celtics do not take anything less than Deron Williams for Rondo.
Until next time,
The SAHD
Remember Paul Pierce throwing a nutty in the 2005 playoffs by taking off and tossing his jersey after a questionable call? That was Pierce's 7th year in the league and he was 27 years old. Rondo's recent throwing a ball at the ref happened in a regular season game, it's his 6th year in the league, and he just turned 26. Pierce had some similar maturity, moody, not getting along with teammates issues when he was young and look at him now, a sure Hall of Famer and top 5 scorer in Celtics history. On both WEEI and The Sports Hub callers and hosts alike are leaning on the 'Rondo can't carry a team to the Finals' argument. Could Paul Pierce? Sure, Paul won the Finals MVP in 2008 over the Lakers but everyone knows Kevin Garnett was the heart and soul of that team. One could argue Paul was still immature at that point considering his carry off the court injury then miraculous come back to the court antics in Game 1 of those Finals. Hey, this Blog loves The Truth, but he couldn't carry his team to the Finals as the central piece either.
How does Rondo compare career and this season-wise to other top pointguards?
Rondo
Career 10.9 ppg, 7.7 apg, 4.4 rpg, 1.9 spg
This year 14.2 ppg, 9.6 apg, 5.0 rpg, 1.5 spg
Derek Rose
Career 21.0 ppg, 6.8 apg, 3.9 rpg, .9 spg
This year 22.4 ppg, 7.6 apg, 3.3 rpg, .9 spg
Deron Williams
Career 17.5 ppg, 9.1 apg, 3.3 rpg, 1.1 spg
This Year 21.9 ppg, 8.3 apg, 3.5 rpg, 1.1 spg
Sure, Rondo doesn't score as much, but even with the motley crew that's healthy at any one time on this year's Celtics he's increasing his assists and filling some of the rebound void even more than usual. Williams is clearly a notch above Rondo but Derek Rose, last year's regular season MVP, looks up at Rondo in all but one stat, Points Per Game. Is Rondo perfect? No, he shoots poorly both from the floor and the line, but still gets it done in all other areas. Need a big rebound? Need an open shot? Need a defensive stop? Rondo can take care of all that. Rondo is incredibly valuable, the most valuable of all the Celtics for the foreseeable future. He's the one that makes the other players look better than they are. So what if he doesn't score as much. Trade any or all of the aging big three, but please Celtics do not take anything less than Deron Williams for Rondo.
Until next time,
The SAHD
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