This Blog has finally gotten to the point of second guessing Bobby V. Wanted to wait at least until real games started but this closer decision has done the trick. Alfredo Aceves gets the nod to begin with over Mark Melancon. Is Aceves not the best option to spot start should Beckett's thumb hurt more or his finger get a blister or he step off the curb and tweak his hammy? Yes, Beckett is fragile, you get it already. Aceves also proved money last year in innings 4, 5, 6, and 7. Yesterday Melancon was studied. The numbers will be crunched into three year averages and let's see these two gents side to side:
Aceves Melancon
Innings 210 112
ERA 3.00 3.20
WHIP 1.06 1.25
BB/9 2.65 3.45
K/9 6.5 8.0
W 24 8
L 4 4
SV 4 20
Aceves's wins and innings speak to his role being much more of a spot starter and long reliever, although having a 24-4 record over the last three years is pretty darned impressive. Aceves has better control (less walks and lower WHIP), Melancon is that much more dominant (striking out 1.5 more batters per 9 innings). No doubt, Aceves is a very good pitcher. This Blog's point is just as much about Melancon's potential as it is about the value of Aceves in just about every other point in the game except the 9th inning. A couple more data points to bring it home. Per BaseballHQ.com Aceves has a three year Ground Ball % (% of ball put in play against him) of 39%. His Fly Ball % is 45%. By contrast, Melancon's three year Groud Ball % is 56% with a Fly Ball % of 24%. Melancon allows a little more than 20% less fly balls and induces 17% more ground balls. Melancon is in the top tier of major leaguers with that 56% Ground Ball %, much more the profile of a dominant pitcher than Aceves. The guess here is Aceves will blow a couple games and Melancon will be in the closer's role by May. Beyond that we'll see how Melancon handles the pressure.
Until next time,
The SAHD
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