There is no better example of what a difference strand rate (S%) can have on ERA. Here's a little more on strand rate from Baseball HQ (thanks to them as usual for the stats):
"Pitchers with strand rates over 80% almost always have exemplary ERAs. Starters and middle relievers who post this level in a given season have an 80% likelihood of watching their ERA rise in the following year....Pitchers with strand rates under 65% almost always have inflated ERAs, but have an 89% likelihood of watching their ERA improve in the following year. In addition, 83% will improve their ERA by more than one run."
Okay okay, you can come up with percentages for anything, but stay with me on this inverse relationship. In 2008 Buchholz had a low 63% strand rate and his ERA was a bloated 6.75, it went 74 / 4.21 in 2009, 82 / 2.33 in 2010, 77 / 3.48 in 2011, 69 / 4.56 in 2012, 84 / 1.74 in 2013, 62 / 5.34 in 2014, and now 72 / 3.27 this year. That is more of a roller coaster than a weekend with the boys at Deandre's house. Another funky line is his home runs per fly ball (HRF). He's ranged from 16% to 5%. Considering the planets aligned in HRF & S% in three out of the last eight years (2010, 2013, so far this year) is more than just plain luck with this guy. This is where statistical analysis switches to armchair psychologist and all I can say is it's a matter of bearing down and concentration and getting his head right. Moving on.
Buchholz's strike out ability (SwK) has stayed very consistent, and his velocity (Vel) hasn't changed much. He's continued his excellent ground ball (GB) tendencies. Combined with his hit percentage (H%) being a more normal 33 this year outside of his other outstanding 2010 and 2013 seasons what in the wide wide world of sports is going on around here? Control. Control control and more control. He's walking less people than read this blog. He was making steady progress on his control throughout his career. A nice jump from 2011 to 2012 but otherwise very slow and steady. This year he's gone all Mike Powell on us and leaped to his all time best of 1.9 BB/9. In turn this has been the driving force behind his career best command (K/BB) of 4.5. Can it last? Is it real? It is known that successful starting pitchers tend to walk less batters as they mature. The clear fact is this is the one major change he's made this year and it's paying dividends.
Reading a story on WEEI's website about Porcello's start and how he embraced his two seamer like I told him to (thank you thank you, thank you all) I found this little gem from the new and improved Clay Buchholz:
"That's what I was trying to tell him the other day. Just forget about everything, make that one pitch and if it doesn't happen then get the ball and make the next pitch. That's what it looked like he was doing today. He had focus and conviction behind the pitches he was throwing."
He's gone all Yoda (before we knew how blind and pompous and what a looser he was letting the Emperor get the better of him) on us. He's passing out wisdom, he's not walking people, he's cut his hair, I'm buying! I'm betting he'll break the DL trend and have his first back to back years of 28+ games started and be one of the biggest starting pitcher bargains in the MLB for years to come.
Until next time,
The SAHD
No comments:
Post a Comment